XCITE ENERGY

Lets see what the government do in the budget and hope it will be enough to make a difference.

Though keeping housing high was a mistake, they should have let the bubble burst, ell they should have let the banks sink under their own debt rather than saving them and now the banks will only lend if you have money or assets that are rock solid

Remember Governments should do a lot, they should have kept Brit Oil and built an oil fund, but the didnt they squandered the money.

250mb. 37p per b.. not even a can of coke.

lucky our debt is so low.. and we have plenty of cash in the bank not really doing that much,

Most large oil companies will continue to slash new projects over the next 12 mths.. to protect the existing business and ensure demand is more balanced against supply, They can't rely on Saudi as they have done in the past.. $80 target isn't so bad, if your costs have also been cut.

We are fortunate the Bentley partners are some of the best in the industry.. but turning MOUs into contracts in this climate appears tricky.

DECC should come out with support measures from the government for new builds.. just like the housing sector.. otherwise first time developers will always struggle to get onto the production ladder.

Borgo, pi%% off, some of us remember one legged Pete from the Rockhopper days!

Don't see anything wrong with this conceptually, SBT. Perhaps as part of the same set of measures China might compulsorily be ordered by the global controller of oil to purchase all future supplies produced within a radius of (say) 200 miles from the Norwegian town that's closest to Bentley - and here's the clever bit - that's at the heavy end of a scale of viscosity that's not far off what Bentley produces (clever, eh?) at a fixed price of $150pb (subject to upwards revision should the spot price be higher at any stage) for the next 50 years.

Bet that would get XEL's price up to 35p.

"Saudi should be capped at how much $$$ it has in storage.. it should be forced to spend it, until it reaches 60% of its current level. Saudi oil production should be cut immediately by 50%.."

We welcome another nut job to the board.

SBT

Bought in today.

The poster with the exotic and colorful pen and storyline may not be that far off this time, intentionally or by chance.

....and there in,..as the Bard said,.. lies the rub.

___

The Edison note says that Bentley is profitable at $50,. however, they don't know what the production costs will be,.. and neither do we. We won't know that until the FEED is completed and the contracts signed. It's possible that the cost efficiencies which should result from the partnering strategy will reduce the production cost, .. likewise the costs savings that may have materialised due to the current low OP?

We just don't know.

Oil at $45/barrel in 2016.? .. Given the slowdown in USA fracking oil production that we are already witnessing I would hazard a guess that there will be a lot of oil companies in distress or gone to the wall before the end of 2015 if a sub-$50/barrel persists beyond the 3rd and 4th qtrs of this year, let alone 2016. As to BP, I think they are scaremongering,...they are playing catch up after their debacle in the US and they are throwing a few stones in the pond to upset a few people. Note their comments were made before the ECB move.

The trillion euros that the ECB has committed to buying national debt will create growth as will the economic stimulus associated with a period of low oil price, and low interest rates..(..albeit there will be a fiscal lag,.).

It is only a matter of time before the speculators decide that the excess supply in the market will be absorbed and that point you will see oil futures rise. Supply and demand. That is all you need to know about the oil pricing,... as the Saudis have so brilliantly demonstrated. It is not in their interest, to keep this policy in place any longer than they feel is necessary. My gut suggests that they will want the price to remain low for at least another 6months until there is clear data showing US production slowing,... and this period will be followed by a slow but steady rise toward a year end of circa $60-70.

As to the loans,.... IF there is no Farm in after FDP approval,,,( personally,.I think there will be..and I think it will be Statoil/Esso or CNOC,.or perhaps both)...then I would expect the existing loans to be re-financed and rolled over. You have to be pretty confident to lend that kind of money unsecured as they have done in the past. This is a 50year project, the oil is still there,... and don't believe they will pull the plug provided we can demonstrate that we can service the debt. Banks will take a long term view,.. this is a strategic asset, one of the largest fields in the NS.

..and let's not forget that we are not anticipating first oil until FDP approval plus 36months. Assuming we manage FDP approval in H2/2015 that means our first oil will be late 2018. What will be the price of oil in 2018? That is what we should be asking ourselves.

Just my thoughts.
Best

Late reported sell. 200k @ 29.50p.
W T F?!

all great point but there is one major point of our own business.

In 2016 we have to replay or refinance our loans. How likely is that if banks have taken heavy losses elsewhere in the sector and the oil price is still $45 (if the BP prediction is right)?

Because the company is worth 40% of Lionel Messi's buy out clause and a barrel of Bentley the price of a bag of crisps - crazy isn't it !

Remind me again why I was able to pick up 3,332 share for a grand this afternoon.
SJ - a confused XEL investor

I would go even further.. Saudi should be capped at how much $$$ it has in storage.. it should be forced to spend it, until it reaches 60% of its current level. Saudi oil production should be cut immediately by 50%.. and only be allowed to increase when reserves hit a certain threshold...

"Saudi could cut its daily output from 12.5m to 11m. problem solved. OPEC messed up big time."
___________________

Not as far as I am concerned as an XEL shareholder.

1 The low sp at present has/will allow us to contract in our services/equipment at a lower than anticipated cost------ beneficial to XEL

2 The weakness in the oil price has led HMG to think again about the level of tax/subsidies,.. which is now likely to be reduced further in the coming March budget-----beneficial to XEL

3 The economic benefits of a period of low oil price is estimated to increase GDP by something in the order 0.3-0.5%.... which will eventually (circa 12-18months) feed through the "growth" cycle leading to increased oil/energy usage----- beneficial to XEL

4 Funders will be wary of extending credit to the higher cost shale producers, taking forecasted shale oil supply out of the market in the short term----- beneficial to XEL. ( 90% of the USA surplus comes from their shale production,... there are already indications that new shale fracking/drilling is slowing,.. and as we know the drop off in oil production from these wells is massive,.. circa 70% in just 12months).

5... Over the next two or three years, 3 and 4 above, are likely to underpin a rising oil price as we embark on a period of worldwide economic growth, which will in turn lead to a higher oil price and which should coincide nicely with our first production, late 2018- -- beneficial to XEL

6... and finally,... it's allowed me to bag a few more at 30p...which to be frank,.. I didn't expect---- beneficial to me!!

Best

I blame OPEC, Saudi market share is too high at say 10% of global market. it's not like the need the money with all their reserves collected over decades.... Baker Hughes data showed US rigs were closing down, but Canadian ones were increasing... so i'm not sure how much non-Opec production will decrease by Autumn.. I see this article as a saving face strategy by Opec.. give them 6 mths to make the first cut as a goodwill gesture.. ie June meeting...... but the West won't allow this to happen again , as it needs prices above $100 all the time. I like the strategy of cutting projects to guarantee higher prices in the future.. oil might trade in the $120 to $150 range.. Certain countries within Opec will need to cut their output even further over the years.. Budgets for some countries need to be the S125 range anyway.. so imv. Opec has failed to protect a number of interests.. Saudi should cut.. it should allow others to benefit , just as it has over the years..

There was a programme on the tv over the weekend re the Canadian tar sands (cannot remember when or what channel though) and it was a very messy and expensive process, they stretched as far as the eye could see!!!!!!

They gotta be hurting at these prices!!!!!!

No Hitman OPEC have not they wish to maintain their Market share, and they know how expensive it is for other Countries to not only find it but to extract it ! It cost $20 per Barrel for every Barrel of Oil that is being discovered in Exploration Costs, this includes finding Dusters as well ! Then we have the Production Costs, the highest being Fraccing Companies, but also Deepwater, it is very bad for the World to have see-sawing Oil prices, it is essential that all Producers sit down and control the Price, I am not sure the Yanks will play ball, anti-trust laws ! So they will suffer as Bakken and Canadian Oil Tar Sands need Oil to be over $100 per Barrel to make them viable.
A very good time to buy Xcite we have 198 1P Reserves as some one mentioned valued at $.60 yes 60 cents per Barrel ! Crazy or what !
LB

“We need a reasonable price that works for all producers,” said El-Badri, adding that the group would still be willing to sit down with countries such as Russia if they were prepared to rein in their own production to help balance the market, which is estimated to be over-supplied by about 1.5m bpd.

all this over 1.5m bpd excess. ..

Saudi could cut its daily output from 12.5m to 11m. problem solved. OPEC messed up bigtime.

Opec warns of $200 oil without investment despite recent slump.Slump in oil investment could lead to a sharp rebound in prices unless burden to balance the market is shared, says Opec chief

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11370166/Opec-warns-of-200-oil-without-investment-despite-recent-slump.html#

price should rise 2H 2015. and wants to sit down with others (non -Opec) in respect of cutting output.

Tanker rates rising according to Teekay http://teekaytankers.com/About-the-Tanker-Market/Current-Tanker-Rates-Tanker-Market-Update/default.aspx.

Current low oil price will rise as soon as the contango participants have loaded up their tankers ready for the rebound and not before it . This current oil price is pure market manipulation allowed to take place by spineless politicians who know it`s happening and do nothing about it, that is apart from Cameron and Osborne who do their utmost to protect a corrupt system in the city, what an absolute disgrace

.......is now valued by the market at 60 cents a barrel.

I have an idea. Appoint an administrator and see how much he can get in a fire sale (must be 3 or 4 dollars a barrel surely?). Then redeem the bonds, pay the creditors (plus his fees of course) and distribute the rest to shareholders. Voila - multiples of the present share price.

"The share price is an absurdity" wasn't strong enough in December, Rupert. We need a new description.

The following is an old article but interesting nevertheless - there are even more hedge funds now. What seems clear is that 'real' trading in oil occupies only a small percentage of all the trades done in it. As usual, it is destruction of value which is scoring big wins for speculators and this is thought by some to be largely responsible for the rapid oil price decline, when there is only a modest imbalance in supply and demand that needs correcting.

http://www.rff.org/Publications/Resources/Pages/181-Speculation-and-Oil-Prices.aspx

Looked at on a macro level, value destruction (usually via short selling) makes big money for hedge funds and investment banks. This money is removed from markets when the expected win is achieved, rarely to return. I am (I believe reliably) informed by old contacts that there is presently any amount of venture capital in the City in all sorts of hands, looking for opportunities to support the purchase of undervalued companies. I haven't seen much evidence of it coming to light so far, but it wouldn't surprise me if it were true. The very organisations (or ones of the same type) capitalising on their own efforts to destroy value in the first place, this time by owning the targets as they recover. Even if you are an investor who hasn't sold you'll lose, because you'll have no option but to sell at whatever price is dictated to you, if whatever you're invested in manages to avoid being completely crippled and going to the wall.

This is Britain in 2015 under the control of a government that supports whatever goes on - no matter how unwholesome and destructive to the personal wealth of investors - as long as whatever it is generates the most tax. Never again when and if I manage to get something worthwhile back from what I have 'invested' (that's a laugh) on AIM.

It is little wonder a 'super rich' class has emerged that is taking ownership of an increasingly large proportion of the world's assets (as reported last week). It was bound to happen with everything laid out on a plate for their agencies.

So the share price crash (Which is similair to around 90% of oil companies on the stockmarket) has nothing to do with the decline in oil price and the tightening or comptetitor purse strings....

I can't believe you still have the nerve to post here when you know so little

I suspect it'll go more like this....and then, not only will I be laughing at you, I'll be laughing all the way to the bank!

You can chase you penny gain's here on AIM.

'' Yes indeed - you will always get laughed at! ''


Yep all the way to 10p.
Ah the mirthless laugh of the blind..

Kemp: North Dakota Oil Rigs Drop Points to U.S. Output Decline after May


LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) – The decline in oil drilling that has occurred so far across the United States is probably enough to ensure U.S. production peaks by April or May, though that might not be evident until June or July given delays in publishing production records.
If the number of active rigs continues to decline in the next few weeks, which seems likely, it is reasonably likely U.S. oil production will be falling by June or July 2015.
In North Dakota, the number of rigs drilling for oil has fallen by almost a quarter in less than four months, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes.
Baker Hughes puts the number of active drilling rigs in the state at just 147 last week, down from 189 at the beginning of October, and the lowest number since December 2010.
Baker Hughes counts rigs as active only when they are actually drilling – from the time the rig breaks ground and the well is spudded to the time the rig reaches target depth.
The company excludes rigs in transit, moving in and rigging up, or engaged in non-drilling activities such as production testing.
North Dakota's Department of Mineral Resources (DMR), which uses a slightly broader definition, puts the count higher at 157 but shows a similar decline over the last three months.
Moreover, of the 157 rigs included in the department's active list, 27 are recorded working on projects that began in 2014; it remains unclear whether they will be deployed on new wells.
Many rigs are being stacked. DMR records shows at least four of the 157 active rigs are due to be stacked once their current well is completed rather move to another job.
Rigs are said to be "cold stacked" when they are released from contract or stopped and the crew is normally laid off. Warm stacking refers to taking a rig off the market temporarily, in the hope of obtaining a better rate in future, and basic operations and staffing are normally maintained ("And it begins – rig stacking" Dec 11, 2014).
Initially, some drillers appeared to believe that rigs could be warm stacked in the expectation of a quick rebound in prices and drilling activity. But as wellhead prices remain stuck below $50 per barrel, and in some cases below $40, more rigs are being cold stacked.
The DMR estimates a fleet of 140-160 active rigs is needed to maintain output and replace declining production from existing wells. Current rig counts suggest North Dakota's oil production will soon stop growing. If rig counts decline much further, output will start to decline by the middle of the year.
The same story is playing out across the two other big shale plays, Eagle Ford and Permian Basin, both in Texas.
The total number of rigs drilling for oil in the Big Three shale plays dropped to 794 last week, down from 954 at the start of October, according to Baker Hughes.
The Big Three shale plays account for around 60 percent of all the oil-directed rigs operating across the United States, but more than 95 percent of all the increase in U.S. oil production since 2009.
So these are the plays which matter in terms of rebalancing the oil market, and there are signs the rebalancing is already well underway.
(Editing by William Hardy)


Article Date: Monday, January 26, 2015

How many shale gas and tight oil companies will go bust never to be seen again?
How many financial institutions will fund another shale gas boom knowing what could happen, and will most likely occur now the Saudis have shown them what they can do?

http://www.rigzone.com/mobile/(S(snykoh55buuijvjescx3c1it))/default.aspx?__ufps=285048

Because you are a manipulating, malicious little troII

You post only negatively and solely on this stock.... because you want to buy it.

Yes indeed - you will always get laughed at!

I said ages ago that these were long term support thresholds (with the exception of 32 as that wasn't on the chart i was citing). I got laughed at for calling 64 as the next support down, laughed at when i said 44 was the new 64, and laughed at again now.
Will the penny have dropped by christmas 2015 for some of you?

'' I smell bankruptcy.....creditors pulling their funding out... ''


The huge crash in SP is indicative of not just a huge difficulty in getting the vast amount of funding in place, but also imo how unattractive the project is as seen through the eyes of potential bidders who EASILY have the cash sat in the bank.

I can't believe the penny hasn't dropped with some people yet i really can't. How much more does it need to fall.

hitman the FDP wont go in until sanction is guaranteed .They will be talking with DECC on a daily/weekly basis so all parties will know what is required.
Rupert said in his video they will go to heads of agreements before contracts and now his ambitious target for the work is gone we are due to be told when his new ambitious target is and where we are up to.We cant really wait till the March accounts are out.
I believe they cant buy shares so why ? ENQ directors bought in December knowing they had increased production by 17%, they had hedged the oil price and were in negotiations to ease the terms of their finance.
We are at the mercy of the markets and the MM's , volume is still low and there are more buys than sells today.Sells amount to less than 100K pounds sterling , there is no mass getting out .It remains a plaything for now.
Now who is getting Carlyles £660M ???

Looking back at the historic SP.. I hope the SP follows 2010. a recovery back to £1 nearer October, based on an oil price recovery and a FDP submission. The NPV was calculated at Dec 2013, with a 12% discount to Brent, so I assume the NPV is practically zero at the moment.. I wouldn't expect a FDP submission in the first half of 2015,.. DECC might just send it back and say it's not worth it at the moment. Harsh but true.

Our debts however are very small anyway.. so I expect this to be rolled over again when the time comes, like last time, at a reduced interest rate as well.. . a delay in the FDP means first oil late 2018. first profit ?

it's difficult to watch the SP at this level when we were above £1 for about 3 years..

A big winter storm is coming to the eastern seaboard of the US, this should put some upward pressure on the oil price.

In for some at this price. I can't see this going much further unless oil price starts tanking below $45.

Todays dip is mainly to do with the Greece result but since the new Government are aiming to negotiate a new deal I think we will see some fun and games for a while.

Bargain. Just increased my holding, with a recovery in the oil price cica 30p is a real bargain. Gla

I smell bankruptcy.....creditors pulling their funding out...

Seems to me a sidewards shift in time and space. 10:4

And moving to China ?

PART V - A FIRST ATTEMPT AT WINNING THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF EXCITEMENT PLC INVESTORS

THE MAGDALEN CHAPTER HOTEL, EXETER, DEVON, UK early January 2015

It was middle of the evening around 8pm and at the hotel’s restaurant a man with a trimmed goatie beard was waiting on his own and checking his large mobile phone persistently. He was wearing a dark charcoal jacket, a smart thin colourful tie and an ice blue shirt. He was at odds with the surroundings as the decoration was more minimalistic post modern. One might have guessed German or Dutch, yet he had a Mediterranean.

Ms Claudia Angeling, a long standing investor in Excitement plc made for an impressive entrance into the room. She was in a light blue grey flattering trouser suit bit with a revealing top at the front that made one wonder whether she was meant to have dressed for a date or a business meeting.

She realised quickly whom she was going to be having dinner with and made her way across the room where Jonas Puskas was sitting.

‘Good evening, I believe we are due to have a meeting’?

The man looked up and seemed almost pleasantly surprised by the presence of his would-be dinner companion. He stood up with the intention of shaking her hand.

‘I’m Jonas Puskas, CEO of Magyar Enterprises. Yes indeed, Ms Angeling?’

‘Jo este, yes, please call me Claudia. It is nice to meet you’

He was still standing and with a gesture invited her to sit down too.

‘It is delightful to meet you too. I am sure you are intrigued to hear all about it’ said the CEO of Magyar Enterprises.

‘I have to say though I’m not surprised easily I was a little taken aback by the agent’s call. I haven’t been headhunted for a long time but it wasn’t just that. I wasn’t clear whether it was for a job or ...’ she paused there as she sensed that the smile in Jonas Puskas face

‘Let me order you a drink first’ he said.

’Thank you. Have you flown directly into Exeter?’

‘Yes through Paris and I am off to London tomorrow through Dorset where I’m supposed to look at a shale oil site where I’ll be joined by my CFO and one of our senior engineers who will be travelling from London. As you may know we have construction as well as oil interests. Initially I was going to send my CFO for the meeting but then I reconsidered’
He then went on ‘I understand you live around here Claudia’

‘Yes not far at all. This is a lovely hotel, by the way. Did you say a shale oil field? In this market?’

‘It is for sale for peanuts and that is the market to be keeping an eye on things. Anyhow, thank you for agreeing to meet me. Apologies if the agent didn’t make it clear that you were actually going to be meeting with the CEO of the company’ he said with a disarming smile on his face.

‘Not at all though I can only speculate as to the possible reasons of this meeting. Mystery is my thing’

A smiling waitress came along to take their orders.

'Anyhow, what shall we drink with our food? How about wine?’

‘I wouldn’t say no to wine’ said Claudia.

‘Red or white?’ I’m surprised to notice that there is a Kadarka Hungarian red that I could recommend especially if you haven’t tried it before. Would you like something else to start with?

‘Hungarian wine it is and I think red will go nicely with my food. I’ve been here before that’s why I suggested this place’

It was already clear even at this early stage that the chemistry between the two diners or possibly future collaborators was going to work very well. Mr Puskas had a real skill of making people feel at ease and Ms Angeling was also good with people in a wide range of situations. At that time he was pleased that he hadn’t left the meeting to his CFO who was an excellent strategist and good with numbers but Mr Puskas had an almost unique knack for winning people.

The good chemistry factor made Ms Angeling lose some of the reservations she had after she agreed to meet this stranger who according to the

Stimulus, in 2018 when this goes into production oil won't be $60 a barrel, the number of projects that are being scrapped, delayed or redone will probably ensure supply will drop off considerably over the next few years, probably much earlier. Low oil prices, particularly in the US, encourage driving and therefore oil useage actually goes up, not down. Low oil prices have maybe helped the world (or parts of) avoid another potential recession so although its been messy for oilers its not the end of the world for those who can ride the storm!!!

Its still a fact that most oil is produced in unstable countries, what would happen if a tanker was hit in the Gulf or a Saudi refinery was attacked, oil would rocket?????

If we get costs sub $40 a barrel which is very likely and the price of oil goes back to say $100 in a few years then we will be making a huge chunk of extra profit (along with our Bentley partners). Low oil prices drive takeovers and i'd be very surprised if this isn't being looked at now, its a large enough field for a major and with Bressay/Kraken etc nearby the synergy savings could be huge, that would favour Statoil obviously but anyone who bought Bentley could do the same and they'll all maybe make some decent savings to boot!!!!!

I think you'll find that the BOD are "cracking on" and as we've been saying its simply a waiting game until FDP is submitted and then hopefully approved!!! At the stage we are at 32p a share is mental!!!!!

Could be a bull opening, but probably just VI posting again!!