Trends and Targets's blog

Trends and Targets for 31/07/2015

THE FUTSIE. (FTSE:UKX) We managed to select a pretty handy week to showcase our talents with the FTSE. The market has moved from a low of 6495 to a high of 6697 (so far), a rise of 202 points in four sessions. Our ethos is to establish 'sane' movements rather than running around like headless chickens trying to find a trade for the sake of a trade. While this attitude will often miss some of the points of a movement, we prefer to cherry pick trades which match our criteria.

Trends and Targets for 30/07/2015

THE FUTSIE. (FTSE:UKX) The market met our initial target of 6604, spending the day pivoting around that level like a bad smell at someone else' desk. It didn't get to our 6677 but we really didn't anticipate superman movements from London. However, we'd expect movement above 6634 on UKX to take the market the next step to 6677. And here's the problem writing about the markets as there are two different markets. The REAL FTSE and FTSE futures. At time of writing, futures are at 6648, safely above the trigger level and in a zone where something odd can happen. With the UK market closed, it's entirely possible UK futures will hit our target level before London opens at 8am. Invariably, what will happen is the FTSE will be opened UP, hopefully able to continue to our 6677 before suffering some kind of retrace.

Trends and Targets for 29/07/2015

THE FUTSIE. (FTSE:UKX) needed better 6558 to signal coming growth and it managed better this by an utterly useless 10 points before spending the day messing around doing nothing interesting. However, from the point at which it closed the session, it remains with a logical target of an initial 6604 with secondary now 6677. To scupper the movements chances, the market would need slither below 6524. Actually, if the UK index were a share,  we'd be pretty comfortable it's facing an upward day but would question whether the market will show sufficient oomph to provide growth from its closing level of 6557 to 6677 in one day. Common sense suggests expecting 120 points in a single session is perhaps pushing it too much.

Trends and Targets for 28/07/2015

THE FUTSIE. (FTSE:UKX) managed a pretty textbook Monday. As did most of the indices. Even our outlook against the DAX, when updated at lunchtime, proposed a pretty lunatic drop target of 11029 and to our horror, it achieved a low of 11027 making it a pretty solid 300 point drop. In comparison, the FTSE was positively constipated with 97 points lost by the time the futures market closed for the day.

Near term, weakness now below 6488 expects a visit to an initial 6471 with secondary, if broken, at 6444. The market met and slightly exceeded our lunchtime client update drop target of 6499 and it has created the situation where we need see the FTSE actually trade above 6558 before we can believe a bottom is in. Such an event will suggest continued growth to 6604 with secondary 6680

Trends and Targets for 27/07/2015

THE FUTSIE. (FTSE:UKX) features this week. We're not happy with it as we don't have a solid clue what the markets really intend. The FTSE  needs fall below 6435 before we've a panic moment and it's miles away currently. Or maybe not. For some reason, our software has flagged 6482 as important and the UK market cannot afford CLOSE below such a point. Apparently, if it does, everything politicians have been saying is probably rubbish and the market will crumble to an initial 6285 with secondary somewhere around 5160.

Trends and Targets for 24/07/2015

Trends and Targets for 23/07/2015

HOGG ROBINSON PLC (LSE:HRG) is  perhaps not the most obvious opportunity but we'll be interested if it starts trade above 72.25p anytime now. Such a movement, other than an opening second spike, will tend suggest coming growth to an initial 82p and a probable collision with BLUE, a downtrend since 2007 or so. We've shown a secondary at 91p but realistically would not anticipate such unless any movement is driven by good news or, the price has actually closed above BLUE.

Trends and Targets for 22/07/2015

GLOBO PLC (LSE:GBO), is  the next share we're watching for a near term quickie. The graph, thankfully, gives good reason to explain some charty basics we use. Our argument is, should this share actually trade above 52p - not an opening second movement upward - then we're able to calculate growth to an initial 59.5p with secondary, if bettered, at 65p.

A glance at the image below explains our reticence about that secondary.

Trends and Targets for 21/07/2015

ENQUEST (LSE:ENQ), is our next 'punt' share. As the chart shows, it's got a BLUE line and the price is threatening it. In the event of closure now above 42.5p, we're looking for movement to an initial 51.5p with secondary a longer term (presumably) 59p. While both numbers are fairly handy, the share risks a longer term issue as it really cannot be taken seriously until the price closes above the 'high' before the trend break.

The implication from this is it needs close above 61p before true recovery to a long term 77p becomes extremely probable. If we'd to guess, while our 59p thing makes sense, the share will probably stutter for a while just below the 61p level until either the market as a whole improves or the company issue positive news.

Trends and Targets for 20/07/2015

ARIAN SILVER (LSE:AGQ) and the AIM MARKET, a share which starts our week looking at 'punts' which are showing some sort of near term potential. We'll get something out of the way up front with this lot - their name tends suggest they've something to do with the silver market. This is a metal we refuse to map from a futures viewpoint, simply due to the levels of price control exerted. The next time the price of silver does something logical - which sticks - will be the first time. However, Arian is in an interesting place as we've two distinct arguments which had suggested a bottom was due to 24p and the share price managed tick both boxes on Friday.

Of course, the irritating thing about bottoms is whether a bounce will come or not.

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