Trends and Targets's blog

Trends and Targets for 28/04/2015

YOUGOV (LSE:YOU)  was a surprise to come across as it hadn't occurred a Polliing Company would be listed on the FTSE as a member of the Media Sector. Aside from roughly 99.9% of people surveyed have not bothering to talk about them in discussion forums, the share rather surprisingly has some fairly interesting potentials for the future. But firstly, on the immediate cycle we shall not be surprised to see the price visit 114p and hopefully bouncing from such a level, To utterly cancel such a prospect, the share price needs better BLUE at 131p and this opens a fairly useful concept for the long term.

In the event of it closing above BLUE, it betters a downtrend since 2007 and can be expected to reach an initial breakout target of 155p. But longer term, it's hard to argue against a distant 233p and a new all time high for the share. If a slow down of its growth potential is planned, closure below 114p will signal a very probable test of the long term RED uptrend, probably around the 96p level.

Trends and Targets for 27/04/2015

THE MEDIA SECTOR  (FTSE:Utter_BS) is our area of interest this week. For anyone interested, the real sector index is NMX5650. This particular index is trading around the 7600 level and is viewed as having a target on the current cycle at 9900, so it seems some components can continue to grow.

STV GROUP (LSE:STVG)  has had a pretty vile history with a share price that, when we adjust for the 20:1 split in 2008, was once trading at nearly 75 quid. Now in the doldrums at around 355, it certainly has potential for growth. Of special interest has been its inability to better a glass ceiling at 386p for the last couple of years and this results in a situation where should it now manage to actually close above such a point, we're looking a some growth to 542p next with an almost certain longer term secondary  

Trends and Targets for 24/04/2015

SHAWBROOK BANK  (LSE:SHAW) is a nuisance. A new addition to the banking sector, we've got precisely 15 sessions of data to work with making any long term predictions somewhat irresponsible.  Thankfully we can do a little better than simply saying "It might go up. Or down" as the first 15 sessions have shown a market fairly determined to keep it doing nothing interesting - in concert with the rest of the Banking Sector. Trading around 306 currently, it need only better 307p to allow a magnificent surge in the direction of 311p.

Trends and Targets for 23/04/2015

ALDERMORE  (LSE:ALD) surprised us. When we view movements since the start of March, it seems growth above 256p risks sending it to 330p with secondary 365p. As this is a member of the banking sector, we prefer to take such optimistic numbers with a stiff dram. Or perhaps a pinch of salt. The problem, if we can refer to such strong potentials as a problem, comes from the rate of acceleration since trading commenced in March and while it has stalled in concert with the rest of the market it has tended to flatline in a 20p range since.

Trends and Targets for 22/04/2015

European Islamic Investment Bank (LSE:EiiB) has a share price which doesn't seem to do a lot. Which is obviously a bit strange as it need only start trading above BLUE at 200p to enter territory allowing growth to 246p initially with secondary at a longer term 298p. In fact, if it were to simply close a session with a mid-price above 187p, we'd be inclined to take it as early warning for coming growth.

Trends and Targets for 21/04/2015

HSBC HOLDINGS (LSE:HSBA) is, despite some dreadful headlines, rather closely adhering to the overall trend for the banking sector. In the case of HSBC, it needs either CLOSE above 653 to signal an upward break is coming or, CLOSE below 556 to signal it's stuffed. Otherwise, the share is tending to meaner along uselessly between these two points of the compass. In fairness, movements during 2015 have been sufficient to suggest it is currently on a path to an initial 683, maybe even 695 but such has been the rigid control of the sector we're inclined to suspend belief unless we actually see confirmation of the BLUE trend being broken.

Clients are aware of our 50% rule which we apply against movements. Generally, when a share exceeds 1/2 way toward its target. we expect some stutters but the next time it betters that half way mark it will generally get all the way to its target level. The reason for this boring homily comes from RED on the chart. Reversal from its highs during 2013 had suggested an initial drop target of 587

Trends and Targets for 20/04/2015

THE BANKING SECTOR (FTSE:CROOKED) is our area of interest this week. Okay, the real sector code is NMX8350. Unsurprisingly the sector remains essentially flatlining and is trading around 4430 currently. Only if above 4570 would we recommend delirious excitement as an initial period of 16% growth would make sense, boding well for sector components. Unfortunately, since 2013 the market has been quite tightly controlled  and spent 2014 and so far this year too essentially flatlining uselessly. The surprising thing is we'd been expecting the sector to find a bottom at around 3800 but despite our miserable outlook, it still hasn't made the final plunge. Some caution therefore suggested as should the sector now weaken below 4210, taking a long position against any banking share is liable to end badly.

VIRGIN MONEY (LSE:VM.) is our first victim and it certainly seems some effort has gone into stifling its merciless rise.

Trends and Targets for 17/04/2015

BAe PLC (LSE:BA.)  completes our Aerospace and Defence Sector week. The share is on the cusp of making a "no brainer" signal for the future as, should it now CLOSE above 547p, the price can be expected to grow to 560p with secondary 574p. Neither target is particularly impressive but the longer term prospect of 728p is rather more useful.. This would be due to the share closing higher than ever before and moving firmly from recovery to true growth, making the share a pretty valid thing to stuff into a portfolio.  

Trends and Targets for 16/04/2015

Anyone who's ever had the ridiculous notion that sometimes shares move in alphabetical order will be pleased to know this is a fairly normal phenomena. On the 15th, it was the turn of the middle part of the alphabet for market focus. Quite weird why this happens.

SENIOR PLC (LSE:SNR)  continues our listing of popular shares we've never heard of. A member of Aerospace, it has had a cracking uphill run since the misery days of 2009 when the price was just 23p. Unfortunately we're not able to illustrate an amazing long distance target against this as we rather suspect the rise must experience some stutters ideally anytime now, We've a pretty major problem in trying to calculate a share price target beyond 384p without the price experiencing some sort of tantrum. The funny thing is, we've a massive caveat. On rare occasions, a share price simply keeps going up and completely ignores our clever calculations. Thankfully it is a fairly rare event, so we're looking for some volatility here anytime now.

Trends and Targets for 15/04/2015

COBHAM (LSE:COB)  continues our look at Aerospace sector components. From a big picture viewpoint, this share seems to be heading toward a long term 388p and would need break below 250p to rubbish the prospect. What interests us, therefore, is the immediate picture as there's a heck on an argument suggesting it faces relaxation toward 282p. As the path to any target on the stock market is rarely direct, it thus appears keeping an eye on this for an entry point below 300p makes some sense.

As the price dance in relation to BLUE shows, there's perhaps an issue as the share need only close above BLUE to rubbish the immediate prospects of 282p making an appearance.

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