Trends and Targets's blog

Trends and Targets for 26/05/2015

AMUR MINERALS  (LSE:AMC) continues our wander through the mining sector.  We last featured it in January (link here) and it has managed to close above our initial target level. The next big deal will be closure above 20p as this permits an initial boring 23p with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 30p. As it's probably going to achieve 23p sooner rather than later, near term oomph above 21.5 will give a fairly reliable indication.

Trends and Targets for 22/05/2015

BHP Billiton (LSE:BLT) Bacon Lettuce Tomato ends our week of a random dig through the mining sector.  Given the heavy population of these stocks across the stock market, we'll continue into next week but importantly, our only selection criteria revolves around whether a share price has an interesting history. We take zero notice of whatever activity the company is actually involved in as, from our perspective, it makes no difference. The trend will already be defined by the smart folk who pay attention to fundamentals. Having now covered our posterior, BLT is on the edge of becoming interesting.  It's bottom at the start of the year was a perfect payback for the misery which was 2014 and the bounce since started to outperform quite impressively.

Until the start of May, that is.

Trends and Targets for 21/05/2015

ANTOFAGASTA (LSE:ANTO) has a company name which always make me think of a foreign "No Smoking" advert. But the area the company is named after looks quite scenic if Google is to be believed. Mountains, a sea view, and not entirely different from where T&T is based in Argyll, Scotland. After some research, we established the big yellow thing in the sky is called "the sun", something we lack. The recent whistleblower on Trident Subs ensured every news story had a picture of a sub with snow dusted Scottish mountains in the background. These are our mountains and spotting a nuke gets old after the first few days.

Anyway, LSE:ANTO is reacting to a BLUE line which dates from 2012. Visually, it seems we can be pretty confident that should this trade above BLUE, it's going to an initial 830p with secondary 900p. At time of writing, it's bumbling along at 780p, so not much work is needed to exceed 800p and start some proper acceleration.

Trends and Targets for 20/05/2015

HIGHLAND GOLD MINING (LSE:HGM) perhaps looks like glittering in the months ahead. Until the middle of April, we'd been expecting this to get to a calculated bottom of 16p but it seems that 22p was designated as a bounce point at the end of last year. It's always mildly assuring when a share bounces above a drop target as it tends imply strength for the future. At present, we'd have alarm if it were permitted below 40p (RED) but in fairness, it seems near term growth above 53p will provoke an initial 58p with secondary at a longer term and visually sane 73p.

We've drawn a pink line on the chart as it seems this 73p level has meant something to the share price over the last few years. As a result, another jab at it makes sense and of course, people who've been trapped since 2013 are bound to provoke some volatility with BABE trades. (Bail at Break Even). But importantly for the longer term, the share price is trading above BLUE and once the hysterics at the 73p level diminish, we'd suspect a longer term charge toward the downtrend since 2006.

Trends and Targets for 19/05/2015

GRIFFIN MINING (LSE:GFM) is about as close to encouraging as a share gets. Firstly, there's a dink little circle showing the price was recently gapped up to force it above the downtrend since 2010. The implication of this movement is the market doesn't want the price to drop. This is a good thing as we'd been waiting grimly to see if it would hit a calculated bottom of 19p. But for some reason, the recent plungeto 24p seems as close as they wanted to take it.  If this implies hidden strength, the next 'tell' we're waiting for will be closure above 42p as it appears this price level has some degree of deep meaning to the market and has had for years. Additionally, the recent reversal to 24p looks very like it was one of these nice, free and friendly courtesy services the market provides, triggering someones stop loss prior to a coming rise.

In the event of closure above such a point,  we'd tend expect the share to move to an initial 47.5p with secondary a longer term 55p. Even now, our software is suggesting there's a super long term attraction from the 70p level but we'd suspect important positive sentiment would be required to give this any reality.

So, having got all the good news out of the way, where's the alligator hiding?

Trends and Targets for 18/05/2015

THE PROFIT TEST Just for a giggle, we decided to look at what's happened so far this month with our 'Headline' shares. This is our freebie PR bit below where we mutter about a shares future potentials. Of the EIGHT shares covered in trading days so far this month, only TWO have actually triggered movements (so far), To make it real, we pretended we'd thrown a £10,000 CFD against them with the simple guideline of issuing a BUY at our proposed entry level and a SELL as our initial Selling level. Only SABMiller has completed a Buy & Sell cycle, generating £212  in a 24 hour period. The other, 3i Group, closed the week with a profit of £270 quid and is just 14p away from our target SELL level.

What does this research reveal? Nothing which triggered has trapped a trader in a loss situation and that's always a relief. In two weeks, 25% of trades did trigger and both made profit. If we view the current profit level as a percentage against the hypothetical £10 grand, it's at 4.82%. In two weeks. Which doesn't suck. It does mean, if you're looking for a trade and hoping to take advantage of our free headline piece you will NOT be overwhelmed with options and on the absurd test case of our first 8 analysis, you've a 100% chance of making some money. We shall do this exercise again at the end of the month. For some reason, we tend to be rather lazy about this part of our report and never bother checking it. Until now, that is.

The Mining Sector is our target for this week. As a whole, the sector is looking slightly weak currently and overall we're expecting it to bottom around 13800 points. At time of writing, it's at 14380 and needs better 14700 to make a nonsense of our drop potential. It's less than 4%, so perhaps not a big deal but does suggest any components we're looking at may move slowly.

ALBA MINERAL (LSE:ALBA)

Trends and Targets for 15/05/2015

H&T GROUP  (LSE:HAT) must presumably be a favourite of Paddy Ashdown, though I doubt he could eat them in one sitting. As the chart shows, the share price is reacting to a long term downtrend currently with the implication it needs close above just 193p to move into territory where some real recovery is possible. In such an event, our initial upward target is at 223p with secondary at a longer term 255p. What's interesting with this particular chart is the way it's tending to mimic overall sector behaviour. The given implication is should the FTSE start to do well, it will be reasonable to expect this to follow suit. Longer term, in the event of closure above BLUE, the driving influence will be from a very distant looking 388p.

We've drawn a RED

Trends and Targets for 14/05/2015

W H IRELAND  (LSE:WHI) did something stupid 5 years ago. Virtually to a man, the financial sector bottomed in 2009 but for some reason, WHI opted to find a bottom with exquisite precision around  the start of 2010. It was as if their share price had been insulated for a year from the calamity which fouled everything else. But by reaching the 35p level in 2010, this was as precise a drop target as we could have hoped for.

Near term, we'll be curious if it manages above 105p as this will be taken as the first tick in a box which points at growth to 126p. Only in the event of closure above 126p will we start to suspect longer term oomph is commencing as this should permit an initial 136p and closure above BLUE, the long term downtrend since 2007. What's significant about this sort of thing is it moves the share price into a region where a visit to 203p will be hard to avoid in the future.

Trends and Targets for 13/05/2015

Aberdeen Asset Management  (LSE:ADN) were last analysed in August 2014 (link here) and we got something dead right. Or rather, we were shocked at what happened once our criteria was met on April 10th and it justifies a little inset on the chart below. We'd previously commented the share has a glass ceiling at 500p and on April 10th, the price amazingly managed to close above this level. Our normal logic triggered which implied continued growth above 510p would lead to 576p initially with secondary at a long term 781p. Obviously these target levels represent a brave new world for ADN but what happened on the 14th left us stunned into fury. The market opted to pretend the breakout hadn't happened and managed the share from 506p down to 498p with clinical precision. This was designed to get the price below our critical 500p level. In the weeks since, it has been no surprise to witness an orchestrated reversal designed to keep the share trapped.

Obviously, there's a degree of professional strop here

Trends and Targets for 12/05/2015

3i GROUP  (LSE:iii) are close to becoming interesting again for the longer term. We last glanced at them in August last year (link here) and are gratified it managed  to meet all our target levels. In fact, our major point of interest at 510p has been delivering some stutters recently, resulting in the situation we shall not be confident it's starting a further drift upward until such time the share price CLOSES above 522p.

From a Big Picture perspective, this would be important as it would suggest coming

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