Trends and Targets's blog

Precogz Daily Forecast 24/08/2012

The FTSE is proving somewhat unreliable at present. It broke trigger for a small rise yesterday and failed by a pretty massive 14 points. The impression given is downward pressure is too great.

Once again, for the third day running, 5735 remains our bottom expectation.

Theoretically, movement below 5770 should provide the final nudge. Common sense suggests waiting until such time the index moves below yesterdays low.

Precogz Daily Forecast 23/08/2012

Whatever pushed the FTSE off a cliff certainly provoked some volatility. Given the ‘feel’ of many shares below, there are drops expected but nothing is screaming panic. Prices obviously never go straight up and the feeling given is current relaxation simply being part of a trading cycle. As a “weather indicator”, KAZ is currently pretty reliable. We’ll experience a degree of concern for the wider market should it slump below 680p.

Precogz Daily Forecast 22/08/2012

We keep moaning about the downtrend from 2007 and published another chart on the Precogz website. This one is an ultimate anorak experience as it shows the FTSE in ‘minute by minute’ mode through the last few days, flirting dangerously with a blue line which was born on November 1st, 2007. As can be guessed and seen quite vividly, we are not the only people capable of drawing lines!

Precogz Daily Forecast 21/08/2012

From where the FTSE closed, it risks a retrace toward 5790 with any movement below yesterdays 5803. However, movement above 5835 suggests slight recovery toward 5855. Again!

Yesterday was indeed quite odd as it broke trigger for a slight rise then whatever economic report was released at 11am stuffed the immediate potentials.

Precogz Daily Forecast 20/08/2012

Something really strange is occurring with the FTSE – and markets in general. We’d commented on Friday morning regarding even “BBC Radio Two” carrying a piece on the stock market phenomena. To assist in illustrating why our outlook on so many stocks below is cautious (and very irritated!), we’ve published a couple of FTSE charts at the link below.

http://precogz.com/blog/id/E7A6463AA5

Hopefully, we’ve illustrated quite clearly why the market is essentially stagnating with many share prices stuck in treacle.

Precogz Daily Forecast 17/08/2012

When we started collating our pre-market commentary once London closed, Radio Two was on in the background and their daily 5:20pm market report even mentioned the lack of shares activity. This is effecting stock markets, not just in UK but worldwide. Apparently volumes in London are down 50%. As can be guessed, we do not enjoy prefacing comment against individual stocks with the words ‘Outlook Unchanged’.

Office conversation turned to whether this ‘lack of activity’ may perhaps be due to investors being trapped in so many stocks where ‘the drop’ has been overcooked.

Precogz Daily Forecast 16/08/2012

We were somewhat reassured by the FTSE movements at the open yesterday, along with those of the DOW. Both allowed us to mutter ‘target met’ which is a good thing as it tends to indicate some sense is returning to the indices as the last few weeks have been a bit illogical.

Precogz Daily Forecast 15/08/2012

We’d anticipated a bit of a stutter on the DOW at around 13225 level but a nearly 80 point drop surprised us. Unfortunately, that is exactly what occurred last night and the movement still has not bottomed as it risks a visit toward 13135 today.

This will not bode particularly well for the FTSE when it opens, especially as a few shares in the list below are showing signs of slight relaxation; with the slightly mad exception of the retail banking sector!

Precogz Daily Forecast 14/08/2012

The FTSE proved stronger than expected yesterday, stopping above our bottom target by 13 points. Whether this indicates the index is stronger than expected remains to be seen. Movement below yesterday’s low of 5813 remains with the potential of a drop to 5800.

Generally, we watch the DOW JONES during the evening in the hope of divining some thoughts for the next day. Last night, it remained fairly clueless in direction though upward movement of strength looks probable should it exceed 13211 as a movement toward 13320 will beckon.

Precogz Daily Forecast 13/08/2012

Our Monday ‘blog’ tends to be somewhat more in-depth as we utilise the weekend to take a hard look at the bigger picture rather than simply focussing on near term opportunities and threats.

If the FTSE were a share, we'd write something like - on route to 5955 with secondary at 6200. However, there is a risk of it running into a trend which dates back to 2007. As a result, movement in the near term above 5880 looks problematic but should the FTSE close above 5900, it enters territory where we can safely speculate on a move toward 6200.

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