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(AFX UK Focus) 2009-11-23 11:12
TREASURIES-Bond prices dip ahead of supply deluge
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LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices eased in Europe on Monday as the market braced for fresh supply of short-dated paper worth $118 billion in a holiday-shortened week.

  • SIGNS OF A POSITIVE OPEN FOR WALL STREET ALSO DAMPENING demand for lower risk government debt. U.S. stock index futures all up nearly 1 percent.

  • MARKET DUE TO SHUT ON THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND with trading seen subdued, the issuance of two-year notes on Monday, five-year notes on Tuesday and seven-year notes on Wednesday will be a key test of investor appetite for the massive doses of U.S. government debt.

  • "AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY, THE MARKET HAS A LARGE GULP OF Treasury supply to digest which has the potential to produce a break-out in yields," said Lena Komileva, head of G7 market economics at Tullett Prebon.

  • AT 1037 GMT, BENCHMARK 10-YEAR NOTES WERE DOWN 6/32 in price to yield 3.39 percent, while the two-year paper edged down 1/32 in price to yield 0.743 percent. Ten-year Treasury futures slipped 8/32 to 119-10/32.

  • LAST FRIDAY, THE TWO-YEAR YIELD HIT AN 11-MONTH LOW AROUND 0.675 percent thanks to year-end demand. Investors closing their books for the year tend to park their funds in the relatively safety of very liquid short-dated government debt.

  • DESPITE THE SUPPLY PRESSURE, RECENT AUCTIONS HAVE SHOWN demand for U.S. Treasuries has been generally robust.

  • "WE SUSPECT THAT GIVEN THE REDUCED POSITIONING, THE DEMAND at the short-dated auctions will be robust while the 7-year supply has been the best subscribed by the international community of late and so may fare better than the markets expect," said Sean Maloney, strategist at Nomura.

    "In all, the pressure on the curve should not be too great and we continue to look for the European curve to outpace its U.S. counterpart, particularly once this slug of supply is out of the way."

  • ALSO CLOSELY WATCHED IS EXISTING HOME SALES DATA DUE AT 1500 GMT where any unexpected strength will probably weigh on bond prices. Sales expected to have risen to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7 million last month from 5.57 million in September.

  • ANOTHER FOCUS FOR MARKETS THIS WEEK IS MINUTES OF THE Federal Reserve's Nov 3-4 meeting due on Tuesday. Investors are keen to spot any clues on the Fed's exit strategy.

  • ST. LOUIS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK JAMES BULLARD SAID ON Sunday the Fed should keep alive its mortgage-related assets purchase programme beyond a planned end-date to give policy-makers more flexibility as they help the economy recover from a painful recession.

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