Afren PLC Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6108023
ever watched wall street!...

anyway...got anymore tips...? By taffychaff ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6108023&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 13:19:00 GMT taffychaff tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107914
AFC is a very different company and one which took me a few months to get my head around but even now their technology is beyond me ! I have never invested in such a company either but I felt the risk/reward was too good to miss out on.

I am also heavily in CZA as my friend from Perth is the FD for the company. I jumped in 3 times in the 40's & 50's. Very well managed company and great news about Vele. The second half of this year will see them ramp up production levels and I can only see positives going forward. I have a 350 price target by y/e 2011.

I grew up in Perth and moved to Melbourne (east st kilda) after I finished uni and playing football after having a shoulder reconstruction playing for Fremantle. I worked in Melbourne for a year before deciding to go and see what the rest of the world had to offer with a bunch of mates. We flew to London and then toured Europe for 9 months and after running out of money and racking up several credit cards we all returned to work in London. Saved up again and then did South America for 12 months (i nearly got lost down there) before returning to London to work in the City in a more serious job for a further 5 years.

I left London after summer in 2007 and moved to Dubai with work and have been here ever since. I am looking to go back home to oz in the next 12 months. Yes Australia's property continues to appreciate (as do our interest rates). I can see a real shortage of new homes in Australia over the next 10 years which could push prices a lot higher.

In terms of aussie rules, I am a Hawthorn supporter so jump on them if you don't have a team already. When I am back in town, I will let you know and we can catch up for a beer or two !

Cheers,
Trady By TRADY ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107914&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 12:15:00 GMT TRADY tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107849 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107849&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:48:00 GMT mrposhman tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107816 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107816&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:29:00 GMT wech tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107812
I think the first stage of ebok development is on fault blocks 1 and 2 (correct me if I'm wrong) which I think is where Ebok 4 was drilled. The interims state that flow rates of 3500 bopd per well would be achieved in a production scenario (P4). They are drilling 5 D2 wells and 1 D1 well. Their forecast is 15k bopd from this phase, yet 6 wells would produce 21k bopd so it would seem as if there is significant potential upside to their current production estimates of up to 40% which is HUGE.

Ebok is going to produce massive amounts of cash for afren. Remember Ebok 5 provided a big jump in recoverable reserves which meant that the production phases were swapped around. The full development of the D1 reservoir in fault blocks 1 and 2 was due to occur straight after the initial development though the west fault block has been accelerated. Its likely that flow rates are quicker here as the 6 wells are forecast to yield 20k bopd.

Next year should see the 2nd phase of the D1 reservoir, potentially a development phase in the southern lobe. There are also 3 areas yet to be tested (ebok deep due to spud soon) along with potentially tying in okwok and OML 115. This could be a huge producing basin for afren with part development being completed in just 3 months.

Anyway, food for though as I head off to bed. By mrposhman ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107812&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:26:00 GMT mrposhman tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107776 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107776&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:12:00 GMT wech tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107767
Having said that, things can and will change. We do not yet know what will happen in Nigeria with regards to the new oil law. This could enable other fields to become available, either through divestments from majors or new exploration areas.

We also have no idea yet for the potential of FHN, this could be hugely beneficial for Afren.

My views on Tullow was they got in at exactly the right time in to certain areas. Whether that was through luck, judgement or a bit of both we won't know but they got into areas that were under explored and bought vast areas of exploration potential for very cheap indeed. They either did this through acquisitions or direct tenders. I think they paid around 400m for Hardman Resources which is where they got the Ugandan assets (now valued at something like $3bn) and the Congo assets, which being as they are on the other side of the same basement have great potential so a great acquisition for a cheap price.

I don't think afren have done anything like that. Keta has the potential to be huge but I still think that Nigeria will provide heaps of additional acquisitions. By mrposhman ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107767&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:07:00 GMT mrposhman tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107759 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107759&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:03:00 GMT pauldrayton2 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107754
Very much so. Afren will become hugely profitable over the next few years and those profits will help them to expand and grow even further. I would not rule out FTSE100 within 3 years. By TheFaulkner ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107754&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:01:00 GMT TheFaulkner tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107734
Do you feel that this has the potential of TLW, once 50p AIM company, now c£13.50 FTSE 100 company?

What about £15 in five yrs, I feel it would be a FTSE 100 for definite - sorry Taffychaff By wech ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107734&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 10:51:00 GMT wech tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107637
I'll take a look over there. I think I had a very quick look when I saw it tipped somewhere but wasn't sure I understood the business but I will take another look. It sounds like a good company, something different to what I've invested in in the past.

My best trades have actually come with thanks to shares magasine actually. AFR, CHAR and CZA have all been tipped there at far lower share prices than their current prices. Having said that, shares mags latest article on afren (this week) is a bit strange as it comments on a trading update on 2nd Feb stating delays in ebok production until the later part of the year. Strange as no trading update was made on that day, and strange as no-one has been notified of delays and it seems as if they are on track at the moment.

I'm living in Melbourne at the mo (is that where your from as you came back for the Melbourne cup?). Australia have done perfectly fine during the global recession, though my home loan keeps increasing so theres downside everywhere!! I didn't bother fixing it as the rate would have been over 8%, which I reckon is a bit unlikely. Some mines closed over in WA but as far as I can tell things are going great. They are talking about salaries increasing in WA by quite a large amount (maybe 6%) so things must be going pretty well over there at the moment!! It may also have something to do with the lack of skilled migrants in the mining field as stated by the government recently, they are trying to boost immigration in this area so hardly in recession. China will continue to consume natural resources and that will continue to increase while they grow which can only be beneficial for this part of the world.

Why did you choose to move to the UK? I came out this way as, my fiancee is australian, we have 2 little girls and cost of living is far cheaper when living in a major city compared to living in London where I was before. Ps. Still trying to get used to your version of football!!

By mrposhman ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107637&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 09:56:00 GMT mrposhman tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107619
Oh this old chestnut again. Please can you show me where in the past Afren have wasted money? Your going to look even more stupid when the results come out and show a big cashpile. Do you seriously think that they would state in their Jan operations update (issued nearly a month after year end) that the cash at the start of the period was $313m if the results are going to show something different. Theres a guy over on the RKH board that keeps going on about tampering with satellites. Maybe you and him would feel at home discussing conspiracy theorys as I think you are both nuts!!

In terms of profit. Take a look at the financial statements as I assume that you have only looked at the headline figures. Have a look at what the profit / loss would have been excluding one off items. They would still have made a loss but it would have been minimal and would have been due to paying off long term debt which to be honest, I would sacrifice a small profit for. (they made losses on hedges in the 1st quarter of 2009).

Anyway, hopefully everyone on here has now realised that you ared a nut and you do not research this share at all as you clearly have no idea about the plans for the share. Did you even realise that they have been drilling Ebok production facilities since the start of December, you know thats 4 months right!! This on its own will increase production to 35k bopd.

Afrens problem isn't about production, that will come and production up to 50k bopd (roughly as there is a knock on effect of increasing production at Okoro, as cost recovery will be met during 2010) is FULLY FINANCED, and this is at the same time as OVERPAYING on their debt facilities. Their main problem as it stands is replenishing exploration assets as its likely if Okwok and OML115 find hydrocarbons in the 2nd half of the year, that these wells will be fasttracked into production creating and Ebok hub. This should result in lower cost per barrel produced whilst continuing to increase production.
By mrposhman ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107619&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 09:44:00 GMT mrposhman tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107566
The fact is that Afren is at the beginning of an amazing journey. Make no mistake - if oil prices remain at current levels then they will be making huge profits very soon. They plan to shore up millions of barrels of oil this year and next, and production is set to increase to 100,000 bopd by the end of 2011.

There is so much going on that I don't have time to post it now, but think of 18 wells being drilled this year alone, increased production, acquisitions, further exploration, FTSE250.

This company is going to get very big, very quickly.

Ignore the pathetic deramper - there aren't many companies out there with Afren's potential. By pauldrayton2 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107566&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 09:17:00 GMT pauldrayton2 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107548
Risks are taken every since day. This one looks very promising and I do understand the meaning of 'forecast', do you understand the meaning of 'buy' or 'sell' and alsok 'GO AWAY'.

Everything we do is a risk. We could all died tomorrow in a nuclear attack - what are the chances. What I am saying is that life is a risk and this one is not as bad as you make out.

In response to 'Trady', I agree with his statement which says:

'...............there is no need to stay on this board between now and then deramping this share that you will not buy whilst posting macroeconomic doom and gloom that will affect every company on the planet.'

Sorry 'Trady' for copying part of your post but ............ . By wech ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107548&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 09:07:00 GMT wech tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6107485
there is no need to stay on this board between now and then deramping this share that you will not buy whilst posting macroeconomic doom and gloom that will affect every company on the planet.

By TRADY ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFR.L&display=discussion&id=6107485&action=detail Sun, 21 Mar 2010 08:26:00 GMT TRADY