Character Group Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9580656
Anyone reading this board and looking at the results needs to be aware of the one-off benefit included in the P&L this time. 1.16m of benefit from financial instrument fair value adjustment. Stripping this out of the results drops PBT from 5.57m to 4.41m.

Dumped a quarter of my holding this morning at 155p. Will hold on to the rest. My feeling is that fully diluted EPS excluding one-offs for the full year will be 16p to 19p and that if you believe the business will replicate this profit going forward then the shares are worth about 170p. If you believe that there will be an upswing in profits then the value is obviously more. The holding I'm retaining is a bet on the ability for profits to recover going forward on cycle and product development as discussed by others below.

All of this is in my biased, flawed, under-researched and very humble opinion.

Do your own research and share it here so I can be lazy! By 18pcnt ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9580656&action=detail Thu, 26 Apr 2012 11:42:00 GMT 18pcnt tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9580050 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9580050&action=detail Thu, 26 Apr 2012 09:32:00 GMT donna blitzen tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9579840
results i thought were strong and then surprisingly price falls back.....
results included a lower level of sales and profit and confirmation of a tough trading environment
but behind that i think lots of positives.....
- the company IS MAKING A PROFIT
- C/flow is strong
- stocks are in good shape

so if take 80m ongoing t/o and l.run ebitda margins of 9% gives ebitda of 7m ongoing
debt currently c.5m and mgt have a great record and share buy back track record.......

i think a fair value on that would be c.36m (c. 165p)
but interestingly this is using a low valuation at the bottom of the cycle.......
the l.term ebitda margins allow for a disastrous year with losses on stock write off
so i think it is a base case current day valuation......

even if ebitda remains at 7m there will be c/flow of 5m a year
so that adds 15% to the equtiy value at the bottom of the cycle each year


if take a valuation closer to c. 40m (180p) then getting a 12% compound return
and still at the bottom of the cycle
so i think 180p + is a fair valuation

interesting as well the directors re-stated 'conflict of interest'
- they want to buy back shares at as low a price as possible (their future benefit)
- but they also selling their own shares and want as high a price
- thus i'm sure a 'reasonable' price would need to be agreed with advisors etc......

i think that could easily be justified as 165p +
(i.e. 8 times earnings for a c/ash generative, asset backed business at bottom of cycle)
chart pattern also indicates that price trend is firmly upwards.....despite the negativity re consumer spending etc.......

so happy to have sold out half in recent spike
and happy to hold onto remaining for limited downside and probable 10-15% a year return
will consider topping up on fall backs depending on overall market



All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
CCT is in my portoflio










By thirty fifty twenty ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9579840&action=detail Thu, 26 Apr 2012 08:55:00 GMT thirty fifty twenty tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9555469
good to see strong price mvt in a weak market in reaction to results expectation

interesting chart pattern forming and potentially a golden cross

so might be getting over optimistic but maybe something signifcant with results
with a few insiders topping up beforehand?

any thoughts?

tough markets at the moment so i will bank profits on half at > 155p
prepared to buy back if this is a blip and await results with interest


All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
By thirty fifty twenty ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9555469&action=detail Thu, 19 Apr 2012 14:10:00 GMT thirty fifty twenty tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9518737
"Toy distributor Character Group danced 4.25p higher to 132.5p after securing a multi-year toy partnership with Bin Weevils Ltd to develop and market under license a range of toys. Bin Weevils is a 2011 BAFTA-winning children’s online virtual world, targeting 6-11 year olds. The toys will be launched in autumn 2012. Merchant Securities’ target price is 202p.


Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2097426/MARKET-REPORT-Bumi-centre-power-struggle.html#ixzz1rV8SjWjd"

This sounds like a damn good partnership to get into and will hopefully yield greta dividends. Having a 12 year old stepson , I can testify to the immense pressure that kids are under amongst themsleves to have the latest electronic games etc ....and the virtual world ranks high!!! With i-pod touches and the like becoming the norm for kids as young as 5/6, thisd is an area that will almost certainly grow exponentially!! Hopefully it will open up numerous other revenue streams and opportunities!

Regards

Bruce By BruceZimbo ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9518737&action=detail Mon, 09 Apr 2012 01:12:00 GMT BruceZimbo tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9256009 10:08 PM on 6th February 2012
http://bit.ly/wDu2rS By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9256009&action=detail Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:55:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9253048 February 06. at 10:50 am
http://bit.ly/AtCKLc By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9253048&action=detail Mon, 06 Feb 2012 10:09:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9180484
Why then the mark down? The shares were in fact marked down at the time the predictions were made (fair enough I guess), so marking them down yet again now is OTT in my opinion. I agree market conditions, and the current environment where everything is depicted as tragic news, is likely the cause of this.

Hopefully the release of results in the future will vindicate my sentiments and we will see the share price rise again. In the meantime, I agree with Donna that Directors are unlikely to part with their shares at this lower price, but that does not stop the share buy-back in the market cointinuing albeit at much slower pace. Alternatively, the board could sanction a one-off special dividend - that might boost the price a bit?? Thoughts?

Regards

Bruce By BruceZimbo ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9180484&action=detail Wed, 18 Jan 2012 21:19:00 GMT BruceZimbo tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9177348 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9177348&action=detail Wed, 18 Jan 2012 10:56:00 GMT donna blitzen tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9176954 - yes the guys have done a great job - STILL APPLIES
- yes they have ability to do well in market ahead - STILL APPLIES
- but the market will be very tough - RNS VERY MUCH CONFIRMS THIS
- so yes an historic p/e/ of 7 but based on future profits what does that become.... 8/9/10? - THIS IS THE UNKNOWN

of course i;m being a little pessimistic but i think not totally unreasonable and suddenly the current share price is reasonable and not cheap. - WELL ITS 20% LOWER NOW SO IS IT CHEAP?

i think the market will go lower and if that happens retail exposed companies like CCT could be sold and it will be 140p before chart support found and buyers tempted back in. - THIS STILL APPLIES.

i think the RNS was predictable enough - times are tough but they have done well and took action early. question is how will profits turn out in future years as retail climate remains tough?
the company is capable to make money from selling toys but is exposed to one-off hits from obsolete stock.

i am assessing on l.run turnover of 90m giving l.run average ebitda of 8m
which works out at eps of c.18p
but with only a 6p divi
i can see the market valuing the shares at 7t earnings (126p) and yield of 5% (120p)
my own valuation though would put the company at closer to 185p given the c.flow and mgt

so i am prepared for the price to go slightly lower before i top up more
which i think will be a 2/3 year view with modest 10% p.a. returns
and i think the catalyst will be if the company starts buying back shares
as this confirms it has the spare CASH and is confident in the future


All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
CCT is in my portfolio By thirty fifty twenty ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9176954&action=detail Wed, 18 Jan 2012 09:53:00 GMT thirty fifty twenty tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9163084 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9163084&action=detail Sun, 15 Jan 2012 07:11:00 GMT trademap tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9127616 Merchant's top 12 for 2012
11:12 am by Ian Lyall
http://bit.ly/yRX76l By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9127616&action=detail Fri, 06 Jan 2012 10:39:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9065100 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9065100&action=detail Tue, 13 Dec 2011 19:35:00 GMT zee123 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9065098 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9065098&action=detail Tue, 13 Dec 2011 19:35:00 GMT zee123 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9024316
Well I believe the management is still doing a good job and this has been proven by their past/present actions - buying premises, share buyback, sensible stocking, realistic outlook and learning from past mistakes.

Unfortunately these things don't always marry up with the SP especially regarding the current macro economic environment. I'm sure people probably see this trend with some of their other equities, that said I am alwaying reviewing my holdings based on merit.

Magna

By Magna Opera ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CCT.L&display=discussion&id=9024316&action=detail Fri, 02 Dec 2011 09:28:00 GMT Magna Opera