CVS Group Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9047890 Upgrades
Buy Conviction Buy
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http://www.brokerforecasts.com/companies/CVSG/CVS+Group+PLC
By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=9047890&action=detail Thu, 08 Dec 2011 18:42:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8590997
in short (this be interesting......!) i think the company is at a critical tipping point and for me i would not invest until i was sure that tipping point had been met and the company was on its way with positive momentum.

the factors i think against CVSG are the relatively high debt, which not were companies should be post credit crisis and as potentially start to see higher interest rates (even if at re-negotiation in 2/3 years time). the high debt is also for a company that has high operational gearing - fixed costs of staff and buildings if volumes reduce. if also limits their firepower for expansion unless there is a dilutive rights issue as they only have some much cash flow and spare facility and thus a 'transformational' deal is off the cards without a right issue.


additionally it must be suffering in some context re the general tighness of consumer expenditure. yes pet insurance etc... will make it more likely maybe for vet visits but ultimately will people cut back on pets for kids etc... given costs / look for cheapr pets to maintain and worst case scenario limit the amount of preventitive visits to vet when money is tight. now of course they can have acquistion led growth but this will be modest (i..e if not couple with LFL growth) and also acquisitions means debt will stay at highish levels.....


so i think that the price will get closer to 100p as a buying opportunity and also that the chart indicates 120p might eb resistance so it needs to clear above that to really motor and that is when i;d be particularly interested.

on the upside the business could get serious momentum - CASH flow is very strong - so if can repeat LFL sales of + 2%, find some cheap acquisitions then suddenly the level of debt reduces and the business starts to get rated as a grwth stock with good record that could easily see the price up to 200p again. but for me at the momenet there are some downside risks and thus i'd like more confirmatin before committing.

they remain though on my watchlist as a bid is also a very realisitic scneario. it mgiht make sense for PE to purchase number 1 and number 2 in sector to create the dominate business and get real momentum and buying power benefits. i think htis would require an external 3rd party as does not seem to be on radar of CVSG to instigate.


one question ---- in recent RNS they say they are the largest in a fragmented market but then at start of interims they say they are ...' one of the leading players...' i was just curious as why not 'THE leading player' as companies are frequently looking to self promote.



All IMHO, DYOR and BoL
CVSG is not in my portfolio By thirty fifty twenty ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8590997&action=detail Thu, 28 Jul 2011 17:13:00 GMT thirty fifty twenty tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8573560 http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=10928917

Very pleased. H2 LFL +3%.

Sales in H2 look being more like 52m - 53m rather than my previous guess of 51.3m.

V happy to have been able to add more to my holding at 114p this morning.

Hope the rest of my trading week goes like this.

In my humble opinion, Do your own research etc. Good luck all, and happy investing! By 18pcnt ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8573560&action=detail Mon, 25 Jul 2011 09:33:00 GMT 18pcnt tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8477736
My back of a fag packet guesses:
* H2 Like-For-Like Sales of -1%
* Full Year Like-For-Like Sales of -1.5%
* LFL sales drop in 2nd half offset by full year of prior year acquisitions and minor current year acquisitions resulting in half year sales of 51.3m v 44.0m in same half last year.
* Full year sales of 101.8m
* Full year EPS of 5p BUT crucially, adding back amortisation of 5.2m will give adjusted EPS of 13.9p (nb this is different from CVSG adjusted EPS as they would apply a notional tax charge to the amortisation added back, which I don't do as I believe it to be nonsense)

Given how stable earnings and margins are, and assuming a 10% cost of capital, and using my 13.9p adj earnings as estimate of potential cashfow generation, I come up with a share value of North of 130p.

I'll be happy with EPS of over 5p but very shocked if the share price manages to rise to where I think it should be as everyone seems to miss the amortisation trick needed to uncover the true value. I expect I'll need to carry on holding for a while longer yet before the share price starts reflecting the true value....

All, of course, in my ill-informed under-educated and very humble opinion. Do your own research and make your own calcs - would love to see what you come up with. By 18pcnt ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8477736&action=detail Fri, 01 Jul 2011 10:04:00 GMT 18pcnt tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8475703
Last year I think there was some acquiaition activity around year end which might have pushed them to announce earlier.... Or maybe they would have done it on 29 anyway....

Whenever it is going to be... It is time for us alll to dust off our forecasts. I've had a 150p price target for quite a while now. Time to review. Will post my predictions and price target if I manage to get it done before the actual announcement. Cant imagine price target changing too much as hasnt been any major news.

Would be great for a few others to get their predictions and targets posted here if they can.

positive or negative LFL sales anyone? I'll go positive in h2 due to snow last year which came in h1 this year.

Good luck all. By 18pcnt ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8475703&action=detail Thu, 30 Jun 2011 21:14:00 GMT 18pcnt tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8470622 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8470622&action=detail Thu, 30 Jun 2011 08:36:00 GMT lomax99 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8433867
On the UK market, they have only ~10% share of small animal surgeries. This is still a highly fragmented market - how many other industries have this level of fragmentation? Off the top of my head, I can only think of fashion and furniture, where individuality matters - very different to CVS where there are economies of local scale. I'd see significant further potential for value creation in the UK.

On international, I am sure there are other attractive markets to consider. But given my view on UK potential, I see tis simply as a distraction. If management were to spread their attention too thinly, I fear they might end up with weak positions in multiple markets and end up making very little money and being poorly positioned to play the specificities of each local market. On top of that, I'm not sure if there are major cross-border synergies in this industry. Certainly there could be a small amount of cross-border buying scale. But I don't think this will be large - the supplier base is relatively concentrated, will look to protect the profitabliity of each of their markets and will not need to succumb to pressure from CVSG. And I can't really see operational benefits from a position in multiple markets.

So if the management team announced that they are looking overseas, I would be concerned and read that as a strong SELL signal. But for now, I maintain that there is value to be had from this stock. By androvitch ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8433867&action=detail Wed, 22 Jun 2011 22:28:00 GMT androvitch tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8414903
Good luck. By Black Leopard ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8414903&action=detail Sun, 19 Jun 2011 08:44:00 GMT Black Leopard tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8361823 Jun 7 2011 at 7:20 PM
Buy CVS Group (CVSG) at 116p
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UKAnalyst@http://bit.ly/jrFoL0 By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8361823&action=detail Tue, 07 Jun 2011 21:59:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8325343
I'm still a big fan of the stock and would say it is a buy or hold at this price, depending on your view of share price risk. My take is that this stock is worth quite a lot more, but there is a small short-term risk of up to -25% on SP back to previous price floor, and likelihood of +25-50% further movement in short term to reflect underlying value. Byond this, I also believe in the true solidity of the business model which will bring larger gains in medium term (see my detailed post on another board).

Perhaps some weary shareholders are taking profits now, happy to get a bit of positive movement after a long wait. Which could make it plateau or fall back a little. But I think the bigger gains are still to come for those who wait. Those bigger gains may only be triggered by the next trading update, which I anticipate will be very good as recent acquisitions come to fruition, and we lap a period of poor performance driven by external factors.

DYOR etc... By androvitch ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8325343&action=detail Tue, 31 May 2011 10:07:00 GMT androvitch tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8311666 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8311666&action=detail Thu, 26 May 2011 16:54:00 GMT dentranger tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8109796
i.e. Mark Slater and the PEG crew. By stockhound ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8109796&action=detail Sun, 10 Apr 2011 21:18:00 GMT stockhound tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8023791
My priorities:

1. Focus on the core cash generation model, i.e. acquire small surgeries > massively improve economics > grow cash > acquire etc

2. Restart LfL growth – get the customers in, care for their pets, cross-sell products.

3. Aggressively drive growth of online platform
- Drive trial by existing surgery customers: direct marketing, incentives and surgery staff training
- Acquire customers from store-based pet supplies retailers
- Selectively build scale in high-value product segments to build online cost advantage that can be translated into pricing and 1st consideration

4. Reduce management distraction of ancillary pet cemetery and diagnostic lab businesses. These have the potential to suck up a lot of cash that would be better directed to improving and growing the core business.

5. Later, look for ways to crystallise the value created. The most obvious way is acquisition by a major UK pet supplies retailer (similar logic to Halfords’ acquisition of Nationwide auto centres). This would drive significant synergies.
- revenue synergies from leveraging the combined customer base and brand strength
- cost synergies in some product segments, G&A and marketing expenses

Other thoughts? By androvitch ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=8023791&action=detail Thu, 24 Mar 2011 11:40:00 GMT androvitch tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.7783838
Good thoughts.

The debt is an image issue but I'm not sure it is causing to much practical trouble. They are servicing the debt without much trouble and they are growing at a respectable enough pace.

I'm always curious as to why they haven't started adding sites organically. Taking out the competition makes sense and they seem to be paying fairly low prices these days.... but beginning organic openings would seem to make their position even stronger when negotiating surgery purchases: it would always be in the mind of the acquiree that if they don't sell, CVSG will open up on their doorstep with greater buying power and lower prices... By 18pcnt ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=7783838&action=detail Fri, 11 Feb 2011 13:41:00 GMT 18pcnt tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.7781905
2) That placing last year to part fund their biggest acquisition in recent years was achieved when the SP was at a reasonable level, if it was at current levels it would have been twice as dilutive.

The debt is a pain, the VC's loaded this up and floated it, on the right terms I can see how an equity issue may appease the market perception of the legacy debt issue.

It also was not that great to see the CEO offloading so many shares a while back.

CVS has a great future as the lead consolidator in a sector ripe for further consolidation, the SP however at the moment completely fails to reflect this. By lomax99 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:CVSG.L&display=discussion&id=7781905&action=detail Fri, 11 Feb 2011 10:34:00 GMT lomax99