GCM Resources Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9266553
http://www.imf.org/external/am/2011/speeches/pr22e.pdf

Power rental and small independent power producers’ plants are not expected to bring in transformational change in power sector that Bangladesh is looking for. Its accretion of wattage is offset by countervailing load of energy import bills of unbearable magnitude. What is required is going for bigger units. A mega-size coal-fired power plant producing 1000-2000 megawatt electricity using coal from the northern part of the country is technically feasible. We are aware of World Bank’s aversion to financing fossil-fuel power projects in the light of environmental considerations but the World Bank is known to have financed coal-fired large projects in South Africa and Botswana. An energy-starved country such as Bangladesh can legitimately request the Bank to finance power plants using coal and help the country in securing the least polluting option for coal-based power plants. The country is also in need of large projects for transport development, especially in roads and railways. The demand in this sector has escalated as a result of the choice of the country to be a transit territory in South and South-west Asia and thus transform itself into an economic hub in bustling Asia of the twenty-first century. Thus for transformational impact in the quality of life of the people of Bangladesh I would urge upon the international public sector in money, finance and trade to play a pioneering role.

Bish Bash Bosh

By Marv73 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9266553&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 23:19:00 GMT Marv73 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9266295
Take a look at some of our opportunities in 2010 and 2011, such as Kefi for instance.
Pheeew, the same money invested in POL and GCM at the same time would have been a killer... in a negative sense.
A true none-performing combo.

(Just had to let that out here in mountain winter-wonderland : )))
By rRomeo29 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9266295&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:59:00 GMT rRomeo29 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9266228
It was on 9 January when someone who should know more than us emailed me "I remain extremely optimistic that the company will be given permission to mine the deposit at Phulbari within a few months"

I took it with a pinch of salt but maybe just maybe... By Marv73 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9266228&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:48:00 GMT Marv73 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9266073
...bearing in mind IMF have asked what GoB intentions are for fuel import and management for the next three years. The above shows seriously tight spot the GoB are in...unsustainable...

Possible solution; GoB OK mining, and borrow from WB / IMF, and others, based upon widespread confidence that economic growth is guaranteed [ double digits - easy! ], with borrowed money used to deal with the short-term economic / power crunch... By CroutonFactor ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9266073&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:13:00 GMT CroutonFactor tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9266070 http://www.daily-sun.com/mob/index.php?view=details&type=daily_sun_news&pub_no=50&cat_id=1&menu_id=1&news_type_id=1&index=2 By Marv73 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9266070&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:12:00 GMT Marv73 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265931 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265931&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 20:29:00 GMT CroutonFactor tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265903 http://www.bangladeshchronicle.net/2012/02/govt-to-borrow-2b-for-fuel-oil-import/ By Marv73 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265903&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 20:16:00 GMT Marv73 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265843
We think it is true (fact), ... we hope that it is true, ... we anticipate that it is true. BUT is it TRUE?

Now, if we knew the answer to that question, there would be very heavy buying tomorrow when the market opens and share would end the day at .... go one pick a figure!

Well, we can dream and build castles in the air ... can't we?

:-))

dogbawls By dogbawls ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265843&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:56:00 GMT dogbawls tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265772 ')" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.theindependentbd.com/paper-edition/frontpage/129-frontpage/93902-1000mw-load-shedding-from-next-month.html
Dhaka, Feb 8: City dwellers are set to experience load-shedding during the up-coming summer as the Power Development Board (PDB) will not be able to produce required amount of electricity to support irrigation pumps across the country. To ensure power supply to irrigation pumps during summer, the government has taken up a policy to cut power supply in the urban areas and to increase supply in rural areas as before although PDB claims that it has added 3,000 MW to the national grid in last three years.
In an inter ministerial meeting, the Power Development Board (PDB) official on Wednesday said due to gas shortage they could not produce around 700 to 800 MW of electricity. On the other hand, some power plants are now out of operation due to technical trouble. Those are to produce around 1500 MW.
He said PDB will try to keep load-shedding within 800 MW in rural areas during irrigation season to help ensure food security of the country.
“We could produce around 5,330 MW against the demand for 7,125 MW during the irrigation season, however, the demand for electricity in irrigation is around 1600 MW,” PDB Chairman told the meeting. The demand for electricity in the agriculture sector is growing by 8 per cent (per year).
To manage the load during irrigation period, a central management committee was formed, he told the meeting.
“All distribution committees would be formed to monitor the situation,” PDB chairman said at the meeting. This year the country will experience around 1000 MW of load-shedding from March, the official observed. The meeting was held at the secretariat on Wednesday. Officials concerned of the power and energy division, BPC and agriculture were present. Dr. Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, the adviser to the prime minister, chaired the meeting.
He directed the officials of PDB and BPC to take necessary measures to ensure fuel supply and power generation smoothly to keep the load-shedding at a tolerable level. The agriculture ministry apprised the meeting that the demand for power in irrigation is 1600 MW plus.



By searchers-son ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265772&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:36:00 GMT searchers-son tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265740 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265740&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:28:00 GMT CroutonFactor tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265736 ')" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.daily-sun.com/details_IMF-for-3-yr-action-plan-in-petroleum-import_50_1_1_1_2.html
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Wednesday wanted to know about the government plans in importing petroleum fuels and management for the next three years before approving a US$ 1 billion credit, officials said.

An IMF staff mission, now in Dhaka, sought government’s next course of action for three years during a meeting with senior officials of the ministries of finance and energy and mineral resources division at finance ministry.

“BPC informed that the government has to incur loss between Tk 8 billion and 10 billion every month due to sale of petroleum products at low prices compared to their high import costs,” an official inside the meeting said.

“BPC would also inform about its action plan on fuel-price adjustments for next three years if the existing rate of subsidy continues,” he added.

Recently, the IMF prescribed the government an upward adjustment of energy prices even in the current peak boro irrigation season, which spans four months from February to May.

According to the energy division, in last three years the prices of fuel oils increased by Tk 17 a litre in five separate attempts.

The prices of electricity were also hiked twice at retail level and thrice at wholesale level during the period.

In December, non-food inflation crossed food inflation for the first time on a point-to-point basis and reached 11.38 percent on the back of rises in diesel and electricity prices.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics last month released the inflation data for December which show food inflation at 10.40 percent.

In December food inflation rate went down by 2.07 percentage points while non-food inflation went up by 1.19 percentage points in November.

Bangladesh Power Development Board has raised power tariffs by seven per cent in its second-phase power-price adjustments which became effective February 2012. In December 2011, the power price was also increased by 13 per cent.

Besides, power prices were increased by 5 per cent each in 2011, 2010 and 2009.


By searchers-son ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265736&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:26:00 GMT searchers-son tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265617
GoB will have informed the IMF behind closed doors of intentions to use own coal, and timeframes within which this will happen. Everyone, IMF and WB, and other donor agencies, know the situation full well - Hasina and GoB have no choices. Just one plain route available... By CroutonFactor ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265617&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 18:50:00 GMT CroutonFactor tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265571 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265571&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 18:38:00 GMT siliconsally tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265556
By searchers-son ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265556&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 18:35:00 GMT searchers-son tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9265527 ')" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?page=detail_news&date=2012-02-09&news_id=97744
Khondkar Abdus Saleque

Bangladesh Power Board (PDB) has recently announced a mega plan for 7000 megawatts (MW) coal-based power generation. This they say is in accordance with the revised power sector master plan. Ten such plants will use about 20 million tonnes of imported coal (US$ 2.0 billion worth) a year. The board in its ambitious plan opined that such a massive investment would be possible from current rate of growth of export and industrialisation. If that really happens, Bangladesh will join middle income group of countries after 2016.

We are aware that Bangladesh GDP is growing at 5.0-6.0 per cent every year requiring about 7.0-8.0 per cent growth in power demand. But over the past several years power generation and supply could not keep pace with economic growth and industrial development. The present power demand at the peak irrigation season is about 7500MW against which average generation is about 5000MW. Over the last three years of the present government, several imported liquid fuel-based expensive rental power plants have been set up but the generation of many existing plants have become uncertain and inefficient for overage and outdated technology. Moreover, lack of natural gas supply at required volume and pressure translates into 800MW available capacity remaining idle. Consequently, about 2500MW deficit in national power grid has brought industrial growth and development to almost standstill situation. Thus not only foreign investment but also investment of local entrepreauners has become extremely challenging.

The Sixth Five Year Plan recognised prevailing energy situation as an acute energy crisis -- a sectoral "emergency". The annual loss of production and income from power outage could exceed 0.5 per cent of GDP per year. One of the main reasons for such mono fuel energy generation is the lack of required development of natural gas resources and failure to diversify fuel mix. The availability of domestic primary fuel supply is getting scarce forcing the shutting down of fertiliser factories, rationing gas supply for domestic use and CNG.

PDB estimated that if the country does not opt for coal now it will have to rely on import of US$ 8.0 billion worth of liquid petroleum at the present market rate to generate about 7000MW additional power.

We are not sure what made PDB to be so optimistic about relying on imported coal-based power and assurance of stable price of power in the volatile coal market. Bangladesh does not have required port infrastructure to support such a huge volume of coal import. Neither inland waterways retain all-season navigability for plying of coal carriers. Power based on imported coal under no circumstances can be cheaper than local coal and gas.

PDB also realised [may be contested by Petrobangla] that persistent gas crisis may worsen after 2017. PDB apprehension is not supported by massive expansion plan of Petrobangla. International oil companies and BAPEX are continuing major gas exploration and development activities. Petrobangla plans to add another 1000MMCFD gas supply to national grid by 2015 of which Chevron alone may add about 500MCFD. Petrobangla is also pursuing import of 500MMCFD equivalent LNG by 2013. If all these happen, then PDB may not need to go for such ambitious and to some extent unrealistic coal import plan.

There is nothing wrong in planning for shifting of 50 per cent of the power generation on coal to protect and preserve depleting precious gas resources.

PDB plan also indicated that by 2020 about 9800MW power will be generated from domestic coal and another 7,800MW from imported coal at a total cost of US$ 26 billion. According to PDB the remaining power would be generated using gas, oil, renewable energy and these would need US$13 billion more in investment.

The government forecasts the demand for power in 2020 will go up to 17,600 By searchers-son ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GCM.L&display=discussion&id=9265527&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 18:29:00 GMT searchers-son