Geopark Holdings Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9650009
GeoPark have 36.8% of Colombian Blocks Lla 17, 45% of Lla 34 & 10% of Lla 32 - all partnered with Parex and part P1 Energy.

We also have other Colombia block interests - 10% in Arendajo and 100% of La Cuerva.

There appears to be some potentially significant prospects across the 3 blocks i highlight as these are with Parex.

Of interest is the fact that on block Lla-16, Parex are producing some 11,000 bopd a few kms away next door to block Lla-17 (and planning to increase production there beyond the current 11,000 bopd figure). http://www.parexresources.com/sites/default/files/presentations.pdf

Lla-17 has already found oil via the Celsius well and awaiting completion. If block Lla-17 is as good or similar to the current 11,000 bopd from Lla-16, this would be tremendous for GeoPark.

GeoPark appear to have made a number of new Colombian discoveries over and above their start point acquistion of 2 Colombian assets of 2,800 bopd.

And on the 10% interest they hold on block LLa 32 with Parex and P1 Energy - GeoParks maximum details said this - quote "Exploration well Maniceno 1, the first exploration well in the Llanos 32 Block in Colombia (operated by P1 Energy with GeoPark owning a 10% WI), was spudded in March 2012 and reached TD of 11,027 feet in April 2012 targeting Mirador and Ubaque formations. Log information in the Mirador formation indicates approximately 50 feet of net pay. On a 21 hour production test the well accumulated (natural flow and with jet pump) total production of 3,219 barrels with less than 7% basic sediment and water (BS&W). This initial result requires further confirmation from a longer term production test (expected during 2Q 2012).

P1 Energys announcement on the same well - Greater flow rates and only from 14ft of the 50ft net pay flow tested.

P1 Energy Corp. Announces Significant Crude Oil Discovery.

The Maniceño-1 well was spud on March 2, 2012 and after a side track of the original wellbore, reached total measured depth of 11,027 feet on April 18, 2012. The well targeted the Mirador and Une formations. Log interpretations in the Mirador indicate net pay of more than 50 feet. The top 14 feet (10,750' - 10,764') of the indicated pay in the Mirador was perforated and production tested on jet pump at an average rate of 7,280 barrels of oil per day of approximately 25 degree API crude oil and less than 5% basic sediment and water ("BS&W") over a four hour period. The maximum flow obtained from the well during the jet pump test was 9,512 barrels of oil per day over a one hour period during the four hour period. The well also flowed naturally at an average rate approximately of 3,036 barrels oil per day over a 6 hour period with downhole restrictions due to the jet pump assembly. Initial test rates are not necessarily indicative of long-term production rates. P1 plans to install a high volume electric submersible pump ("ESP") in the well before releasing the drilling rig to drill the next well on the Block. The Maniceño-1 well was the first of two commitment exploratory wells on the Block.

After release from the Maniceño-1 well, the drilling rig will move to the second commitment exploratory well on the Block called Samaria Norte-1. Samaria Norte-1 is expected to spud in the second half of May 2012 and is targeting the Mirador and Une formations.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/p1-energy-corp-announces-significant-crude-oil-discovery-150150625.html By zengas ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9650009&action=detail Wed, 16 May 2012 21:03:00 GMT zengas tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9650003
2 mid/late Q1 Colombian acquisitions made 14th Feb (800 bopd) and 27/3 (2000 bopd).

Production quoted as 12,200 boepd on 23/4/2012 (64% oil).

Now into mid Q2 with more development wells drilled and awaiting completion this and next month on the FELL block.

Also new Colombian development/exploration wells drilled and awaiting completion May/June.

Other wells awaiting testing - then completion if successful (some already with net pay identified - one flowing over 3,030 b/oil on 21 hr test and 50ft net pay identified subject to 10% interest.

More wells to spud May/June/July & August in the short term.

Could see 15,000 boepd close to being achieved in next quarter. Biggest number of wells being drilled ever.

Production is predominantly from the Chile FELL block and 2 new Colombian acquistions.

Now multiple blocks (19) to develop/explore compared to just 6 in 2011.
75% of the production (9400 boepd) and now rising - is just from the Fell block alone - ie just one block.

Again they are highligting the totally seperate unconventional resource potential of its seperate shale oil/gas possibilities.

Looking personally for an exit target range of close to 18-20,000 boepd by year end on current 45-55 well programme for this year.

Possibilities for further acquistions (actively looking and 2 already made of 2800 bopd net). If a similar $100m acquistion made - target 20-24,000 boepd.

Multiple blocks to be developed/evaluated/explored considering that 9400 boepd comes from just 1 block.

With a possible 40-50 wells in 2013 and perhaps an acquistion - target 25-30,000 boepd end next year ??

Shareprice was over 900p in 2010 on much, much lesser production, reserves, lower oil/gas prices and revenues, so i view it as still a long way to go to get back to decent value and with such strong forecast production growth and likely acquistions, 1500p - 2000p must be a reasonable target considering production and the chances of material upside from exploration.

42.5m shares in issue and tightly held.

By zengas ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9650003&action=detail Wed, 16 May 2012 21:01:00 GMT zengas tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9614872 GED is currently producing 1600-1800 bopd from their blocks in the Llanos basin in Colombia and tiny amount of production from their blocks in the Middle Magdalena basin in Colombia. The blocks in the Llanos basin (Rio Verde, Alcaravan, Los Hatos) carries 7.1m bbl of reserves and 2/3 of these reserves are developed. In the Middle Magdalena basin GED holds the blocks Bolivar and Bocachico, which carries 33.2m resp. 75.9m bbl of 2P reserves. The company have produced smaller amount of oil from these block (800k bbl in total) whereby the block can basically be seen as undeveloped. GED also has a 40% stake in the exploration Block 95 in Peru, an exploration block they hold together with the Canadian listed E&P Gran Tierra. Amoco made a discovery on Block 95 in 1974 when they drilled a well which tested 807 bbl per day but the field was not commercial at that time.

First, I think we have a lot of valuation support in Global Energy Development at the current level. Assuming that production in 2012 would be 1725 bopd gross, which is inline with GED production guidance and it doesn’t assume that any new production would be added in 2012. Assuming that oil price would stay at current level (Brent ~$115), production cost would increase with 6% and admin cost with 10%. In this case GED EPS for 2012 would be £0.34, which would mean that the stock is trading at 3.05x P/E and giving no value for the non-producing asset and also assuming no additional production from the development work the company will be doing in 2012.

Then we have the potential upside from the non-producing asset: Bocachico, Bolivar, Block 95 and increased production from Alcaravan.

Bolivar:
The block is located in the north part of the Middle Magdalena basin. GED is looking to test the shale oil/NGL/gas potential in the Simiti formation. The previous operator of Bolivar, Harken (now main shareholder in GED), drilled four wells on the block in 1997-1999. They targeted the Rosa Blanca and Lower La Luna / Salto formation. Two of the wells were very successful (the Catalina-1 and Olivo-1 well) and had initial flow rates of 7073 bopd + 11500mcf and 10800 bopd. The flow rate declined quickly but they still managed to produce sizable volume of oil and gas. At the time the wells was not commercial because of low oil price and the step decline rate. Today, it’s apparent that this block is some sort of shale oil/liquid field. With the technology which has been developed in North America, it is very likely that this block can be developed with very good return. The characteristic of the geology in the block is very similar to the geology in the Eagle Ford which is one of the most prolific shale oil and gas plays in North America.
What is more interesting about the Bolivar block and its location is the interest this area has attracted from top shale companies the last 24 months. Immediately to the north of the Bolivar block you have the VMM-1 block which Lewis Energy has signed up. Lewis Energy is a private E&P company from San Antonio. Lewis Energy was the company which discovered the Eagle Ford play and now they are looking for a similar play next to GED Bolivar block. Southwest of GED Bolivar block Shell has quietly acquired and farmed into three large blocks. Shell has been very discreet about their entry to the North Middle Magdalena area but some of their partners in their blocks have said that they are going to test the shale oil and NGL potential in this area. Shell is in the process of drilling the first wells and within the next four month they are targeting to have completed three exploration wells on these blocks. Shell has a policy of not entering to new ar By ZZ enit ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9614872&action=detail Mon, 07 May 2012 20:37:00 GMT ZZ enit tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9590043
Latest Presentation London roadshow.

19 blocks across 3.9m acres.

2012 estimated average production target = 13,600 - 15,300 boepd - versus 2011 average production of 7600 boepd.

If those targets achieved, then we should see a 2012 exit rate up to 18,000 boepd as current production is 12,200 boepd.

Oil/Gas % ratio for 2011 was 66/34 split.

Oil/Gas % ratio target for 2012 is for 90% oil which would have a dramatic effect on revenues.

45-55 new wells estimated for 2012.

High impact exploration in Chilean Tranquilo & Otway blocks.

Tierra Del Fuego blocks 50 - 100 mmboe preliminary estimated resources with 30+ oil leads + 15+ gas leads (Chile) with 22 wells planned to replicate producing Fell block (Chile). Several oil + gas fields already discovered on the Tierra del Fuego blocks with early production opportunities.

25-30 wells planned on the producing Colombian acquisitions with 25+ mmbls resources and 10 mmbo P2 so far on 10 blocks.

"Actively screening new projects"

"Strong cash position for acquistions and new investment".

*LG International - Strategic growth partnership*
"Side by side acquisitions (initially $100m - $500m size)".
"GeoPark is General Manager of Partnership and Operator of acquired projects".
"LGI contributes technical and financial strength".

http://www.geo-park.com/homepage.htm
By zengas ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9590043&action=detail Sun, 29 Apr 2012 22:55:00 GMT zengas tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9585325
A little known company with great potential and a probable bagger from the IC mention sp of 572p.... all imo and one I hold from the £3 days.

m

By mantrova ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9585325&action=detail Fri, 27 Apr 2012 13:33:00 GMT mantrova tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9570817
With the 2 new acquistions in January and March this year, this added a further 2800 bopd. With these acquisitions average 2011 production would have been 10,393 boepd.

Total production at the moment is running at 12,200 boepd at the end of Q1 2012.

Tucked away in the results is mention of a targetted increase in average production of 80% - 100% for 2012 over 2011.

Using the pre acquisition figure of 7593 boepd - 80-100% targetted average increase for 2012 = 13,667 - 15,186 boepd for 2012.

Using the combined acquisitions of 10,393 boepd - then an 80-100% targetted increase for 2012 = 18,700 - 20,700 boepd.

To acheive the above average figures, therefore by the end of the year the exit figure would have to be even higher (current production 12,200 boepd).

They also state that 45 - 55 new wells will now be drilled, 35% of which will focus on exploration for new reserves - therefore 30 - 35 will be development wells.

Existing revenues were $111.6m based on 7593 boepd average production with a further $68m and $30m coming pro-rata from 2 Colombian acquistions of 2800 bopd = $209.6m pro rata on circa 10,393 boepd. If prices stay roughly the same and average production for 2012 increases as forecast by 80-100%, then 2012 revenues would be around $375m - $420m - which imo will lead to even higher growth opportunities and further acquisitions and a potential future valuation of £1b+.

£244m m/cap less net cash of £46m = valuation of just £198m and current 60 mmboe P2 with huge exploration upside across multiple licences(+ huge shale potential). Still overlooked and significantly undervalued.

Compared to Amerisur (South America) with a £212.5m m/cap, £10m cash end December.
7.7 mmbo P2 + significant exploration potential.
sub 600 bopd production,
2011 revenues of just $14.2m.
Targetting 5,000 bopd at the end of this year.
By zengas ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9570817&action=detail Tue, 24 Apr 2012 07:43:00 GMT zengas tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9570799
"GeoPark begins 2012 with strong fundamentals in place."

$111.6m revenues for the 2011 year pre acquistions (2 this 2012 year).

Hupecol Cuerva acquisition in (March 2012) had $68m revenues to Dec 31 2011.
Winchester Luna (January 2012) acquistion had 9 months revenue to Sept 2011 of $27m ($30m 12 month pro-rata).

This will put the company on revenue generation of $209.6m (based on 2011) yet production substantially up in the early part of 2012 to 12,200 boepd with 64% being oil of 7800 bopod) so at current prices should be $250m+ for 2012.

Also impact of circa 37 - 42 new wells to be drilled this year and had a 72% drilling success rate in 2011.

60 mmboe P2 (with massive exploration upside).
12,200 boepd current production (7800 bopd = oil).
$75m (£46m) net cash today.
M/cap on 42.5m shares = £242m, less £46m cash = £196m valuation for a company heading for estimated $250m - $300m revenue range this year.

Looking to break 15,000 boepd (10,000 bopd oil) later this year especially with impact of 37 - 42 upcoming wells just for 2012 year alone.
By zengas ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9570799&action=detail Tue, 24 Apr 2012 07:40:00 GMT zengas tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9568135 Exit (year-end) oil production rate supports another significant increase that is predicted for this year.
With a forward P/E for Dec12 at 6.3 and only 4.5 for the following year (and these forecasts may now be out of date), surely there must be some improvement to come in the share price? By wynd100 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9568135&action=detail Mon, 23 Apr 2012 13:03:00 GMT wynd100 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9556449 Just to say 'thanks' and how refreshing it is to see a useful and well-argued post - rather than the garbage that inhabits so many of these BBs.
I was hoping we would have had results by now (11 April in 2011), but they are promised in late-April, so hopefully anytime soon.
To say that GPK seems overlooked is certainly supported by the almost complete absence of contibutions here. Let's hope we see a more realsitic valuation before to long - and that Argentinian nationalisation of oil assets doesn't become the next excuse! By wynd100 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9556449&action=detail Thu, 19 Apr 2012 17:05:00 GMT wynd100 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9482361
I've held a few Parex so decided to switch them into GPK today for obvious reasons.

Recent deals makes GPK look very cheap and with circa 60 mmboe P2 (circa 200 mmboe P3 category after latest Colombian acquistions) and massive exploration potential over 17 blocks (3 Argentina, 8 Colombia, 6 Chile = 17,850 km2 = 4.4m acres).

1st 10% of GeoParks Chile Upstream assets sold for $70m with a 2nd 10% sold for $78m all to the Koreans in 2011.

GeoPark stated that the Koreans deal for the part 20% sale of Chile quote "sets a valuation benchmark for GeoParks Chile business of $780m" (ie some $630m of Chile value remaining) page 10 Sept 2011 presentation.

This must leave the remaining 80% valued at circa $630m (£1/$1.59) or worth £396m to Geopark.
They have still circa $100m/£62.5m cash by the looks of things ($200m/£125m prior to Colombian acquistions).
The 2 Colombian acquistions this 2012 year cost $108m/£68m.

$133m/£83m of notes due on December 31st 2015 - over 3.5 years away.

80% Chile Valuation = £396m (based on 20% sold to Koreans for $148m), remaining cash = £62.5m + Colombian acquisitions =£68m = total £526m less £83m notes due end 2015 = £443m value - against current m/cap of £248m (42.5m shares in issue at todays closing price of 585p) and in my opinion undervalued by £195m or another 460p = imo upside to fair value which should be closer to 1045p and equal to that £443m valuation figure i arrive at.

In January 2011 the share price was nearly 900p and at lower production and without acquistions and 41.7m shares in issue (just 750k more shares now than a year ago - yet valued then at almost 900p - imo worth looking at the shape and direction of the chart now as the potential and deals made, deserve further recognition as to what GeoPark is doing)

Half 1 revenues to end June 2011 from Chile/Argentina operations was $41.8m.
Based on production increasing from 6300 boepd at end of Dec 2010 rising to 8,000 boepd end June 2011.

Production stated today 27/3/12 at 9500 boepd (45% is stated as oil on 2/1/2012 from Chile/Argentina so forward revenues now will be higher than end June 2011.

Full year revenue generation from Chile/Argentina should be in the region of $90m - $100m at todays rate production figure (using the supplied GeoPark figures).

The 14th Feb 2012 - $30m Colombian acquistion of Winchester Luna added 800 bopd net. They had revenues of $27m for 9 months to end Sept 2011 (so around $3m/month or $30m/yr of new additional revenue).

Todays 27th March 2012 - $78m Colombian acquistion of Hupecol adds 2000 bopd and their revenue was stated as $68m full year to end of Dec 2011.

Add these new Colombian revenue streams to the existing Chile/Argentina revenue stream and GeoPark is generating circa $200m revenues per year (from total current 12,300 boepd ) and you can see how the company is entering an entirely new phase .

I've given my reason for a valuation that should be closer to 1050p now. In fact Directors took shares in lieu of fees and certain benefits at nearly 700p in September 2011. A non exec director bought 130,500 shares at 480p in the October lows for a total of £626,000 and holds over 2.1m shares or 5%. Directors in total hold around 16% of GeoPark and with just 42.5m shares in issue imo fairly tightly held and the potential of the company overlooked by many .

New Colombian wells planned for 2012 operating year are put at 18 - 22 wells.
New Chile/Argentina wells planned for 2012 operating year are put at 17- 20 wells.

That's a whopping 35 - 42 new wells for 2012 that could have a material impact on production/reserves if only 33% come in imo. GeoPark have had a stated circa 70% successful drilling rate.

Someone asked about 100 posts back (competitor board thread) on how it could be a £1b company. I think Sailing John put it nicely that the Korea By zengas ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9482361&action=detail Tue, 27 Mar 2012 20:26:00 GMT zengas tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9299468 February 16, 2012
http://bit.ly/wNJk6c By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9299468&action=detail Thu, 16 Feb 2012 06:47:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9288335 14 February 2012 | 08:24am
http://bit.ly/wmZnX6 By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9288335&action=detail Tue, 14 Feb 2012 07:33:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9120792 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9120792&action=detail Wed, 04 Jan 2012 14:27:00 GMT rowanbud tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9117550 3 January 2012 | 16:07pm
http://bit.ly/tp1K6j By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=9117550&action=detail Tue, 03 Jan 2012 15:27:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8812878 http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/05/lg-chileoil-idUKL3E7L506G20111005

SEOUL | Wed Oct 5, 2011 3:38am BST
Oct 5 (Reuters) - South Korea's LG International Corp will invest $96 million to buy stakes in oilfields in Chile, the company said in a statement on Wednesday.

The trading arm of LG Group will spend $72 million to buy a combined 10 percent stake in one oil production and two oil exploration projects in Chile from Argentina oil development firm Geopark Holdings Ltd , the company said.

LG previously bought a 10 percent stake in the projects from Geopark in May for $70 million.

LG plans to invest the remaining $24 million to buy three additional oil development and exploration fields with Geopark, the statement added. (Reporting by Tae-Yi Kim; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner) By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GPK.L&display=discussion&id=8812878&action=detail Wed, 05 Oct 2011 05:11:00 GMT SpikeyDT