Meldex International PLC Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4168246 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4168246&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:43:00 GMT viku11 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4168194
By trader bill ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4168194&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:24:00 GMT trader bill tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167978 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4167978&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 12:28:00 GMT trader bill tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167854 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4167854&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 11:22:00 GMT mdx strong buyto3 quid tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167777
B J Muncaster - 21 Aug'08 - 11:42 - 105594 of 105599

Just popped in after a fag break. Some background to valuation of IP etc. I haven’t looked at this stuff for a few years so some of my info/numbers may be out of date.

Around 2002 we carried out an analysis of our IP. There are two models used as industry standards to forecast the present value of future income from IP. One is the Morgan Stanley model and the other is the Hambrecht & Quist model. These models are used by VCs and other sold called serious investors and also by experts employed in legal challenges to patents.

In short, you have to make a lot of assumptions. You start by analysing the strength of the IP, then look in detail at its market and the potential share it may win over the life of the patent, add in some witchcraft to arrive at potential earnings (taking into account competitive responses), apply the whole to a bell-shape and you finish up with a total income number. You then apply DCF to that number to arrive at a net present value. It’s quite an exercise.

From memory (I’ll try to find the original models) our IP at the time had a NPV of around £2.30 a share, but we had only around 70M shares out at the time. So even with today’s shares in issue the IP could have a NPV of around 70p a share. Most important though is the fact that much of the IP has since been commercialised so more accurate earnings projections could be fed into the model and I’d expect the NPV per share to have risen somewhat.

I raised some eyebrows by suggesting that one of our core-techs could be sold off to fund all other operations. I did not make this suggestion lightly. If you applied the NRobe project to the IP valuation model, for example, (which I have done) you would find that over the course of the license MDX could possibly earn around $500M. Perform DCF on this number (remember the bell-shape) and you’d get a NPV of around $150M. I reckon FMC could make as much as $2.5B over the course of the license (and of course much more after the patent expires), so if they performed the same analysis I reckon they could be talked into coughing up $150-200M right now.

Then take that $150-200M and apply it to accelerating all other core-tech developments and to organic growth of existing operations, throw in an acquisition or three and now run the NPV model again and see what you get!

I bet HL did this. If they didn’t, then they should have done.

Re FMC vids:
The guy who said something like “At the start of my career I never imagined having the opportunity to be involved in a project that could revolutionise the way pharmaceuticals are made” is Dave Simcox, General Manager – now retired. The lady who had a wide-on for NRobe is Anne McGrath, very smart.

By Geord123 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4167777&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:49:00 GMT Geord123 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167567 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4167567&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 09:04:00 GMT 3 off the tee tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167538 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4167538&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:53:00 GMT beach1man tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167526 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4167526&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:48:00 GMT delightful tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166844 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4166844&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:54:00 GMT jaymac3 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166835 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4166835&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:50:00 GMT dazdaman tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166815 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4166815&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:37:00 GMT rtd believer tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166800 Best to take it in the spirit its intended IMO.

Regards. By ON A MISSION 1 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4166800&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:25:00 GMT ON A MISSION 1 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166688 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4166688&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 15:19:00 GMT payoff tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166563 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4166563&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:13:00 GMT mdx strong buyto3 quid tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166496
It says Barclays' holding has increased slightly, from 17,254,723 to 17,255,023 shares. The % drop is explained by the additional 10936648 shares issued last week as part payment for Melbrosin and which were due to start trading on Monday.

Incidentally, Barclays announced an increase from 17,026,063 to 17,149,645 shares only last week.

John
By John of Groats ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:MDX.L&display=discussion&id=4166496&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:42:00 GMT John of Groats