Next Fifteen Communications Grp Discussion

analysis at 96p after results

thirty fifty twenty — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 13:57:00 GMT

price has risen 20% in the last 12 months
and H1 results out this morning confirms steady growth......
t/o, profit, eps and divi all + 10%
and mgt expectations for 2012 are slightly ahead of market forecasts
plus they say that pipeline gives them confidence for an improving 2012/13

below are previous thoughts updated...... mulling my holdings for the new year

everything still seems favourable and to me it is a winner to hold onto

the industry they are in is growing
they have a great record but are on a modest rating
providing digital marketing services for product IT for the world's largest companies is a growth market
the young mgt team have a track record of delivering

further evidence for me is ....
excluding a few weeks at the market peak in 2007
the share price is at a 10 year high
and at a relative high to the market
in chart terms it doesnt get better

add to that a CASH generating business
with 10 yr compound eps growth of 10% p.a.
that is on a future P/E 9 and even giving a c.2.5% yield
so all modest ratings despite growth record and consolidating industry....

and if you wanted to get excited
you would reflect that they have strategic partnerships
with google, yahoo, facebook
to me that is a relatively unique global franchise they have
in an industry that will grow (esp. product development) whatever the state of the market
the company is currently value at £60m
but i think £100m (140p) is not a ridiculous valuation to consider

the shares are tightly held by longer term technology investors
so, bid excepted, i think a fairer price would be 110p
giving p/e/ of 11 and yield of 2.3%

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
NFC is in my top5 hldgs
By thirty fifty twenty

The Expert View:

SpikeyDT — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 04:59:00 GMT

The Expert View:
by Harry Brooks on Mar 05, 2012 at 05:01
http://bit.ly/Aj153N By SpikeyDT

Hybridan.................

SpikeyDT — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 08:24:00 GMT

Hybridan's Small Cap Wrap
By Hybridan | Mon, 30/01/2012 - 00:00
http://bit.ly/wcRfZg By SpikeyDT

Wrap......

SpikeyDT — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 05:26:00 GMT

Hybridan Small Cap Wrap -
Wednesday, Jan 25 2012 by Hybridan
http://bit.ly/yn8OT6 By SpikeyDT

Edison- FY12 off to a solid start

SpikeyDT — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 07:36:00 GMT

Next Fifteen Communications - FY12 off to a solid start
Tue, Jan 24, 2012 at 8:32 AM
Click for report
http://bit.ly/A5Sl9W By SpikeyDT

thoughts at 89p

thirty fifty twenty — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:32:00 GMT

mulling my holdings for the new year
have done well here in 2011 with a good price rise and increased divi
everything though still seems favourable
and to me it smacks of holding onto a winner

the industry they are in is growing
they have a great record but are on a modest rating
i think in the nervous market investors are looking for some sort of certainty
providing marketing services for product IT for the world's largest companies is a growth market
and this young mgt team have a track record of delivering
thus i think investors are confident to buy this relatively small cap stock

further evidence for me is ....
excluding a few weeks at the market peak in 2007
the share price is at a 10 year high
and at a relative high to the market
in chart terms it doesnt get better

add to that a CASH generating business
with 10 yr compound eps growth of 10% p.a.
that is on a future P/E 8 and even giving a c.3% yield
and it just seems a bargin.....

and if you wanted to get excited
you would reflect that they have strategic partnerships
with google, yahoo, facebook
to me that is a relatively unique global franchise they have
in an industry that will grow (esp. product development) whatever the state of the market
the company is currently value at £50m
but i think £100m (140p) is not a ridiculous valuation to consider

the shares are tightly held by longer term technology investors
so, bid excepted, i think a fairer price would be 110p
giving p/e/ of 11 and yield of 2%

best wishes for 2012

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
NFC is in my top10
By thirty fifty twenty

thoughts at 85p

thirty fifty twenty — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 01:42:00 GMT

excluding a few weeks at the market peak in 2007
the share price is at a 10 year high
and at a relative high to the market
in chart terms it doesnt get better

add to that a CASH generating business
with 10 yr compound eps growth of 10% p.a.
that is on a future P/E 8 and even giving a c.3% yield
and it just seems a bargin.....

and if you wanted to get excited
you would reflect that they have strategic partnerships
with google, yahoo, facebook
to me that is a relatively unique global franchise they have
in an industry that will grow (esp. product development) whatever the state of the market
the company is currently value at £50m
but i think £100m is not a ridiculous valuation to consider

the shares are tightly held by longer term technology investors
so although i think th marlet will go lower (FTSE 5300)
i still rate these a very storng buy at 85p

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
NFC is in my top10

By thirty fifty twenty

why i like NFC at 84p

thirty fifty twenty — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 18:13:00 GMT

some thoughts in the run in to year end

I like NFC at 84p b/c:

- operating in growth markets of technology and PR
- has unique relationship with world's largest technology companies
- mgt have demonstrated 10 years of steady and significant growth
- eps appraoching 11p in 2013 giving p/e < 8
- divi is fcst to increase 20% as company distributes significant CASH flow
- share price has good chart support around 78p so downside limited
- a bid is a strong possibility - company has defended various bids in the past

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
NFC is in my top10 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty

Growth Investor-Ben Jaglom

SpikeyDT — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 16:27:00 GMT

Next Fifteen dash to digital
18/10/2011 Ben Jaglom
http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/news/1662313/next-fifteen-dash-to-digital.thtml

PR concern Next Fifteen Communications (NFC) has declared a 19 per cent increase in sales for the year to July having gone on an acquisition spree.

The AIM-quoted venture declared sales of £86 million (2010: £72.3 million) while pre-tax profits rose to £7.5 million (2010: £5.3 million) as a result of a number of revaluations from its acquisitions. Over the period Next Fifteen purchased digital agency Beyond, digital specialist Type 3 and took a 85 per cent stake in investor relations concern Blueshirt, as well as two acquisitions in Asia. Net debt stood at £1.6 million (2010: cash of £5.1 million)

In an interview with Growth Company Investor chief executive officer Tim Dyson enthused that 'while the activity with the acquisitions is exciting we also had organic growth of 11 per cent'. He argued that 'Our numbers show that the transition to digital has been taking place as people look to mediums such as Twitter and Facebook for their marketing.'

For the coming year he said the company would be carrying out 'more selective acquisitions' adding that the PR industry is moving away from the 'old industry' staffed by people 'Who are good at selling to journalists' to what he said was the 'future' which will contain people 'who can optimise content, who can do data analytics and who can produce content for YouTube'.

Analysts at paid-for research house Edison are forecasting pre-tax profits of £9.5 million (EPS: 9.5p) on revenues of £93 million for the year to July 2012. In 2013 profits of £10.7 million (EPS: 10.6p) on sales of £99 million are expected. A dividend of 2.25p and 2.5p is penciled in for 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Growth Company Investor recommended shares in Next Fifteen in 2009 at 52p and subsequently in August at 76.5p. Currently trading at 78.5p, the group has profited from its digital strategy at a time in which the industry as a whole is struggling and moving towards further consolidation. At 78.5p, we retain our buy rating.

Tags: Acquisitions, Media on AIM, Move to digital, PR business

Sector: Media

Companies: Next Fifteen Communications By SpikeyDT

at 79p good reaction to good results

thirty fifty twenty — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 11:23:00 GMT

shares up 3p today in falling and nervous market
in response to final results that were slightly better than forecasts
t/o up 15%, profits, eps and divi all also up 10% +
minimal debt and good cash flow used to further expand business
underlying tone also positive and confident of furtehr growth

to me still seems like the right company in the right place at the right time
- they are specialist into digital and IT with an increasingly global footprint
at a time of increasing products and competion in a rapidly expanding technology market
as well as unprecedented developing in trying to reach the customer in a tailored way.

i expect further 10% growth for next couple of years
though dont expect to see true value immediately recognised in this market
divi yield is only 2.5% though growing at 10% pa. consistently
but still happy to hold with a better than bank divi return
and surplus CASH being invested by experience mgt acheiving 15% returns
and still think it is a 'strategic' PR asset given its global IT relationships that means a take over is a likely outcome over the medium term.

at 78p price maybe not far short of trading value in this nervous market
but growth assured flor a couple of years
and a bid could realistically be 140p+
here's hoping!

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
NFC is in my top10 hldgs
By thirty fifty twenty

Edison Investment Research

SpikeyDT — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 07:47:00 GMT

Next Fifteen Communications - Digital driving force Click for report
Tue, Oct 18, 2011 at 8:42 AM
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/researchreports/NFC181011outlook.pdf

Next Fifteen’s FY11 preliminary results showed revenue, adjusted pre-tax profit and EPS were ahead of our estimates. The group also ended the year with net debt of £1.6m, a level considerably lower than the £2.7m we had expected. Despite the uncertain global economic outlook, we believe that Next Fifteen should benefit from its expertise in the digital media market. Based on modest organic growth coupled with the benefit of the contribution from recent acquisitions, we are increasing by 0.3p our FY12 EPS estimate to 9.5p and initiate a 10.6p FY13 EPS estimate.

Next Fifteen is a worldwide digital marketing communications and public relations group, predominately serving clients in the technology and consumer sectors, with world leading and autonomous PR, research, digital, investor relations and policy communications subsidiaries.
Year
End Revenue
(£m) PBT
(£m) EPS
(p) DPS
(p) P/E
(x) Yield
(%)
07/10 72.3
6.6
7.5
1.85
10.1
2.4
07/11 86.0
8.4
8.4
2.05
9.0
2.7
07/12e 93.0
9.5
9.5
2.25
8.0
3.0
07/13e 99.0
10.7
10.6
2.50
7.2
3.3
Next Fifteen Communications is a research client of Edison Investment Research. By SpikeyDT

Next 15 Presentation on 27th September

AvonSeaWitch — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 09:34:00 GMT

David Dewhurst, Finance Director is due to give a presentation to private investors on 27th September. It is organised by the UK Shareholders Association, which is non profit making and mostly run by volunteers such as myself. www.uksa.org.uk

We are a friendly and informal group of private investors who meet at a lovely old coaching inn a few minutes from J18 of the M4. http://www.kingsarmsdidmarton.co.uk/ There is plenty of parking here but, as most people come singly, I am going to try and organize car sharing for those interested. The format is that we have a presentation from one company in the morning around a boardroom style table with a maximum of 20 people, then a good one course lunch in the dining room followed by a different company presentation in the afternoon.

The companies are closely questioned about their business models, finances, competitors and so on. It is safe to say that we don’t usually leave many stones unturned and come away with a good knowledge, not just of that individual company, but of the market in which it operates, and how it is affected by general economic conditions.

If you would like to come to this meeting, please contact uksa2@btconnect.com The meetings are for UKSA members but you are invited to try us out and see if you like us. If you do, we hope you will join and come again. We can’t make the meeting entirely free because we have to pay for food and drink, but we offer a £5 discount off the usual £22.50 cost of the day for newcomers.

UKSA is not regulated to give financial advice and generally our members are the sort who like to make their own minds up about what they hear. You will meet like minded people and may swap experiences but we do not ask for details of your investments.

DIDMARTON PROGRAMME AUTUMN 2011

Tuesday September 27

Morning: David Dewhurst, Finance Director, Next 15 Communications. A worldwide digital marketing communications group with clients such as Facebook, American Express & Google. With 48 offices in 19 countries and a client list that includes many of the highest-profile international brands, more than 50 percent of revenue comes from the US.

Afternoon: Tim Jackson, Finance Director, Staffline Group. A fast growing provider of blue collar recruitment and training, particularly in the call centre, distribution, and food and drink industries

Thursday October 27

Morning: Chas Howes, Group Finance Director, Supergroup. The Superdry youth fashion brand.

Afternoon: Vin Murria, CEO, Advanced Computer Software Group. ACS consolidates software assets in the National Health and public sector markets just as Computer Software Group did in business and legal services under her leadership.

Thursday 24 November

Morning: Alan Bullock, CEO and Ian Davies, Group Finance Director, Victoria. Manufacture and sales of carpets (including Will & Kate's wedding carpet) with growing profits mainly sourced from Australia.

Afternoon: Jonathan Davis, Group FD, Rotork. FTSE 250 industrial
engineers designing and manufacturing for a worldwide customer base.

Thursday December 15

Morning: Mike Welburn CEO and P Lee Finance Director, Tricorn Group.
Specialist engineering for the areospace, energy, utility, and transport industries.

Afternoon: Chris Cheetham, Finance Director, SciSys. Suppliers of software and support services to Media Broadcast, Space, Government and Defence sectors.

DISCLAIMERS
• All meetings are organized and publications issued on behalf of the United Kingdom Shareholders
Association Ltd., which is a company, limited by guarantee
• Views expressed in UKSA Ltd publications, by speakers at UKSA Ltd meetings and by members of UKSA Ltd and their guests in discussion are not necessarily the official views of UKSA Ltd.
• Nothing said in UKSA Ltd publications, by speakers at UKSA Ltd meetings and by members in discussion is intended to be By AvonSeaWitch

Set to report increased profit for 2011

SpikeyDT — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 08:31:00 GMT

Next Fifteen Communications Group set to report increased profit for 2011
9:18 am by Jon Mainwaring
http://bit.ly/oOKLd9

Next Fifteen is increasingly focusing its efforts on digital PR
Public relations specialist Next Fifteen Communications Group (LON:NFC) said today results for its 2011 financial year will be in line with market expectations and that it expects to make further progress in the current year.
For the 12 months to July 31 2011, equity research boutique Edison Investment Research estimates revenue of £83.7 million with a pre-tax profit of £8.1 million (translating to earnings per share of 8.4 pence). Last year, Next Fifteen produced £72.3 million in revenue and a profit of £6.6 million (7.5 pence EPS).
Next Fifteen is a public relations group that predominantly serves clients in the technology and consumer sectors.
During the year, the firm launched Beyond – its first pure digital agency – while also acquiring three further digital agencies: One Xeno, ILS and Bourne. Meanwhile, it added several major new clients, such as Nokia, GE and Zynga.
50 per cent of the firm’s revenues during the period were generated in the US, and despite its recognition of the “uncertainty created by the continuing and interconnected volatility in equity, sovereign debt and foreign exchange markets” it added that organic growth rates on a constant currency basis are expected to remain strong.
“The group continues to invest to reinforce its position in emerging markets and in further expansion of its digital capabilities,” said Richard Eyre, Next Fifteen’s chairman. “Its technology heritage and early recognition of the significance of the substitution of traditional media time by online and mobile engagement have placed it well to benefit from the new opportunities created by this transition.”
The firm also announced today that Margit Wennmachers, a partner at leading Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz, is joining its board as a non-executive director.
Next Fifteen’s shares moved up half a penny at 80 pence each when the market opened this morning. By SpikeyDT

analysis of share price at 83p

thirty fifty twenty — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 23:55:00 GMT

Well it’s been tough few days and tomorrow does not look any better. My analysis below and on other BB’s re my top 10 hldgs.

NFC – at 83p – down 1% from recent highs
fundamentals = p/e of 9 and good CASH flow. Divi is low at 3% yield. Track record is excellent and i believe they are in a golden position. They deal with the world’s biggest IT companies relating to PR. IT is growth industry and PR of products is also growth as they differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive market place.
chart = aside from dot com bubble price is at all time relative high and only 14p off all time absolute high. Recent volumes are high and able to sell good quantities even in current market. Hmm is a bid coming????
If market collapses > than the expected 5%= price could fall to support at 78p if no bid
market bounce – no real reason for price to go higher unless bid comes
Gut feel = strong belief in the fundamental value of business since buying at 35 in early 09 and that bid likely – tempting to sell and re-invest into other stocks that might bounce with market but golden rule to stick with the winners and gut feel re bid.

Dow Jones – at 10700 and looks like this might be support. If no next stop is 10000 but at least that is only 7% away.
NASDAQ – at 23500 and support looks to be 22000 – c.7% away.
S&P – at 1130 and support looks to be 1080 – c.4% away.
FTSE ALL – at 2630 and support looks to be 2500 – c.6% away.
FTSE 100 – at 5000 and support looks to be 4800 – c.4% away.
So that all seems consistent around 5% away. This would make a straight line fall of c.20%.
In autumn 08 the straight fall before bounce was c. 27% but i think it would be reasonable to expect a lower lever of fall for 2 reasons:
1 – investors could see this coming (i.e. the facts were visible enough) we know now that the lower ratings a couple of months ago and the low volumes all year were b/c some were trading cautiously and not investing.
2 – the banks (which are c.20% of index) are much better capitalised so there is relatively less chance that they would need the same level of emergency capital and thus likely falls would be less.
So i’ve rationalised a further 5% fall from here and at least then a bounce of some sort.
Longer term big picture does not look good but immediate priority is to assess what current action needed.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
NFC is in my top10 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty

reasonable volume and price remains high

thirty fifty twenty — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 14:25:00 GMT

reasonable volume traded today as there has been generally recently - price too ahve remained firm during all of the market turmoil and now relative looks strong. i still feel business is a strategic asset (world's largest IT company + PR) and thus underlying value is maybe 150p.

time will tell

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
NFC is in my top10 hldgs
By thirty fifty twenty