Probability Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9387753 Newspaper Briefing Broker Views
http://bit.ly/zYjUIY By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9387753&action=detail Tue, 06 Mar 2012 07:28:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9263811 12:26 pm by Jamie Ashcroft
http://bit.ly/z6x0Af By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9263811&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 13:29:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9248703 February 04. at 1:51 pm
http://bit.ly/Atb2Tj By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9248703&action=detail Sat, 04 Feb 2012 16:14:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9247400 5:00 pm
http://bit.ly/xNLoC4 By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9247400&action=detail Fri, 03 Feb 2012 21:42:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9241476 Thursday, February 02, 2012
http://bit.ly/AoqIzG By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9241476&action=detail Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:02:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9172668
Register here: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/135 By Ribz ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9172668&action=detail Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:48:00 GMT Ribz tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9168822 PROACTIVE NEWS SUMMARY: Probability, Green Dragon Gas, Citigroup, REBgold Corp, Hambledon Mining
http://bit.ly/vZfNSt By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9168822&action=detail Mon, 16 Jan 2012 17:41:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9165598 7:41 am by Philip Whiterow Probability said trading was strong in all areas of its business in the last three months of 2011.
http://bit.ly/y2CBUp By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9165598&action=detail Mon, 16 Jan 2012 08:05:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9034427 3:30 pm by Ian Lyall
http://bit.ly/vSPe6Q

Summer last year marked a watershed in terms of technology with the launch of a generation of smartphones and tablets sophisticated enough to support Probability’s slot machine, bingo and casino games
All the hard work is starting to pay off for mobile gambling specialist Probability (LON:PBTY), which is at the “inflection point”, according to chief executive Charles Cohen.

The latest results show that sales are starting to take off, while the business came close to break even despite significant increases in marketing spend, particularly on TV.

Cohen, meanwhile, believes his company has “cracked the code” for TV advertising.
“We have worked out how long it takes to recoup our investment, and what the likely payback will be,” he said.

The company’s broker today lowered its earnings guidance for the year to take account of the cash costs of potential new LadyLucks ad campaigns later in the second half.
However a little short term pain should lead to long-term gains, Cohen said.

“The payback period is six months but the cost is incurred up front,” he added.

“There is no way to smooth this out in the accounts but it means a much greater revenue generating potential in the future.”
It has been a breakthrough 12-18 months for the group with a number of elements falling into place.

Summer last year marked a watershed in terms of technology with the launch of a generation of smartphones and tablets sophisticated enough to support Probability’s slot machine, bingo and casino games.

At the same time the company completed a major piece of platform development, which has led to a “significant fall in fixed costs”.

That’s because a chunk of the company's fixed overheads are for software developers, with a large number having been taken on for this specific project.

The award of a Gibraltar remote gambling licence last October brought a further round of savings.
And it promises additional operational gearing in future as the company consolidated customer support into a new call centre in British overseas territory.

“For the first four or five years it was a real struggle,” said Cohen.

“But the lights all turned on last summer. Since then growth has been almost exponential.”

Probability is the market leader in low stakes, high volume gambling on mobile devices.

And there are a number of barriers to entry that will hopefully help the company maintain its pre-eminent position.
The first and most obvious is regulation, which is getting tighter all the time. The capital, the up-front costs and the due diligence required to hold a licence are huge obstacles to new entrants.

And then there is the technology, marketing and relationship management needed to create a successful business.

“It really does not take much brainpower to create a slot machine for a mobile phone,” Cohen explained.

“It’s what goes in after that: the infrastructure for managing your customers and the money. And it’s a complicated business making it all work on a mobile.

“Most of the online groups just don’t understand the mobile market the way we do.

“We are of a near religious conviction that this is a different market and if you don’t understand and embrace this you will not succeed.”

One company that does understand what makes Probability tick is William Hill, which earlier this year made an approach for the company.

Unfortunately it came to nought. Rumour has it the deal was scuppered by Playtech, the bookmaker’s technology partner.

Cohen won’t comment. The Probability chief executive is more interested in talking about the business.

He reveals that only 20 per cent of its 1 million strong, predominantly female customers gamble regularly online.

Ease of use and the prevalence of smartphones provide the foundations for a potentially huge market if it is exploited properly.

By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9034427&action=detail Mon, 05 Dec 2011 16:57:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9031578 7:28 am by Jon Mainwaring
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/36499/probabilitys-mobile-gambling-revenues-benefit-from-tv-advertising-campaign-36499.html


Probability said it expects to make an underlying profit during the current financial year
Mobile gambling specialist Probability (LON:PBTY) increased revenues in line with expectations while reducing its loss during the first half of its 2012 financial year, according to results released by the company this morning.
Probability said it had seen positive results from a trial investment in television marketing for its ‘LadyLuck’s’ mobile casino. Rapid growth of its offerings for iPhone and Android smart phones accounted for more than 50 per cent of monthly revenues by the end of the period, compared with 37 per cent six months earlier
Probability also saw strong growth in its business-to-business and white label offering, which included the launch of six new client brands on its mobile gambling platform.
The period also saw the launch of a new mobile bingo platform, which includes support for iPhone and Android, as well as ‘Loopy Lotto’ – a slot game with two jackpots.
Net gaming revenues increased by 41 per cent to £3,271,000 during the six months to September 30. The firm’s pre-tax loss was smaller by 91 per cent at £65,000, although this figure excluded share-based payments of £23,000 (2010: £13,000).
"During the first half we delivered revenue growth on or ahead of target in both our consumer and business-to-business services, with revenues from the latter increasing by 84 per cent compared to the first half of FY2010,” said Charles Cohen, Probability’s chief executive officer. "Our direct to consumer business has developed thanks to increased player recruitment and improved yields. In particular, we have deployed our mobile [customer relationship management] systems to great effect this year, increasing per-player deposits by 65 per cent in this six month period compared to the same period in the last financial year.”
Meanwhile, cash deposits made by customers were greater by 74 per cent compared with H1 2010, and the firm’s own net cash and cash equivalents were £2.2 million at September 30 (Sep 30 2010: £876,000).
Commenting on the firm’s advertising trials, Cohen said that they represented a “real breakthrough” in Probability’s marketing to new customers, offering attractive and scalable returns on investment. “Importantly, our customer research has found that the majority of the players who are attracted to our low-stakes, direct-to-mobile offering are not existing users of PC based on-line gambling and betting services. They are looking for new types of entertainment through smartphones, which for many people is now their primary means of accessing the Internet. With smartphone adoption continuing apace, this makes the opportunity very exciting indeed if we can reach it through TV.”
In terms of outlook, Probability expects to deliver an underlying profit during the current financial year. By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=9031578&action=detail Mon, 05 Dec 2011 07:50:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8828570 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=8828570&action=detail Mon, 10 Oct 2011 11:38:00 GMT feoffor tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8761132 It isn’t clear how much William Hill would pay for Probability, and the bookmaker is also looking at other mobile- phone gaming companies, the newspaper said. By nicoforever ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=8761132&action=detail Mon, 19 Sep 2011 10:06:00 GMT nicoforever tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8760965 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=8760965&action=detail Mon, 19 Sep 2011 09:33:00 GMT nicoforever tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8758913 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/8770944/William-Hill-eyes-Probability.html

Bookmaker William Hill is in early stage talks to buy mobile phone gaming company Probability.

Although Britain's biggest bookmaker is in highly preliminary discussions to buy Probability, people familiar with the matter cautioned William Hill is looking at a variety of mobile phone gaming acquisitions and it is quite possible both companies may not be able to agree a deal.

By Ben Harrington9:30PM BST 17 Sep 2011

Any deal is likely to net IPGL, Michael Spencer's investment vehicle, a multi- million pound cash windfall as it owns a 17.7pc stake in Probability.
It is not clear what price William Hill is willing to pay for Probability but some sources said the bookmaker could pay a significant premium for the AIM-listed business. Shares in Probability closed at 49p on Friday night, valuing the business at £12.88m.
Although Britain's biggest bookmaker is in highly preliminary discussions to buy Probability, people familiar with the matter cautioned William Hill is looking at a variety of mobile phone gaming acquisitions and it is quite possible both companies may not be able to agree a deal.
Probability was founded by entrepreneurs Charles Cohen and John Scaife in 2003.
The company focuses on providing gambling platforms to mobile phones and other hand-held electronic devices. One of Probability's well- known brands is Ladylucks, whose games include Bingo and slot machines.

If successful, the deal would be the latest in a long line of recent acquisitions. Earlier this year, William Hill bought several land-based sports betting businesses in the US.
After the US banned online-gambling in 2006, European companies have been jockeying for position to buy US land-based gambling businesses.
A spokesman for William Hill said: "We are always looking at many opportunities, particularly in the online and mobile space. However, we never comment on individual situations." By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=8758913&action=detail Sun, 18 Sep 2011 08:08:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8645054 10/08/2011 Ben Jaglom
http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/features/1647473/ringing-ahead-to-the-mobile-future.thtml


It has been an incredible ten years in the development of the mobile phone. It was not long ago that the UK’s most popular device was the Nokia 3310, which boasted technology in the form of a basic game called ‘snake’ and a simple text messaging system that limited how many characters you could write, resulting in the development of ‘textspeak’.

Since then, every year has seen considerable development in mobile technology, with, for example, using the internet via WAP being replaced by the development of the 3G network, which allows the transmission of large amounts of data without the use of wi-fi. Globally there are said to be more than five billion mobile phones in use.

The latest generation of phones, such as the BlackBerry Torch, Apple iPhone and Samsung Galaxy, are known as ‘smartphones’ and offer email, social media capability, cameras and a wide variety of programs that can be installed on users’ phones. These ‘apps’ were pioneered by Apple for its iPhone, with the Apple Store currently offering more than 425,000 apps and boasting that so far it has had 15 billion downloads.

On AIM, a number of companies are involved in mobile technology, with products ranging from gambling to banking as businesses scurry to profit from the opportunities provided.


One company interested in mobile phones is Vipera, a mobile banking and payments concern. Vipera develops the technology that enables financial institutions to offer banking services, with customers including Malaysian banking giant Maybank, UAE-focused banking operation Mashreq and the national bank of Qatar – QNB.

In addition to mobile banking, Vipera also operates mobile payments technology for countries in which a large proportion of the population does not have access to traditional banking services. Known as ‘mWallet’ it enables users to transfer money both between mobiles and to people overseas. Vipera recently announced that it had won a deal with Thai retail bank TN Information systems for its mobile banking technology, with Vipera hoping to expand further in the Far East.

Another mobile banking venture is AIM-quoted company Monitise, formed by 37-year-old ex-professional rugby player Alastair Lukies. Its ‘Mobile money’ technology enables banks to offer mobile banking via means including the use of apps, with a particular success of late being the app it has developed for NatWest.

Into Africa
A company with a strong emerging market focus, Monitise was last year given a licence by the Central Bank of Nigeria to introduce mobile phone payments to the country, with Monitise being one of the numerous companies keen to enter the lucrative African mobile banking market, which first started to win ground on the continent due to successes in Kenya but which has soon spread to other countries on the continent including Uganda and South Africa.

One AIM concern interested in the potential of emerging markets is the Greek business Globo, which is led by CEO Costis Papadimitrakopoulos. The Athens-headquartered venture develops a range of technology for mobile phones, including software that enables older non-smartphones to use features such as instant messaging, email and social media.

Papadimitrakopoulos argues that ‘in many emerging markets mobile phones represent the key media for accessing the internet, being considerably cheaper than laptops’. Furthermore, he adds that a ‘key driver’ of future growth in these markets could be the proliferation of cheap smartphones that will offer such features but at a much lower price than, for example, the iPhone.

Bypassing the desktop
Also observing how many people have gone straight to mobiles is Charles Cohen, the CEO of British mobile gambling company Probability. Cohen, whose business has recently signed a deal to bring its services to Latin America, By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:PBTY.L&display=discussion&id=8645054&action=detail Thu, 11 Aug 2011 18:06:00 GMT SpikeyDT