Rubicon Diversified Invs Discussion

Re: Fastjet Working with Airbus

kibu — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 04:57:00 GMT

I'm sure there's plenty of room. Fly 540 has been trying for years. Seems to have done a pretty good job, all things considered. But have you had a look at the "all things?" Have you looked at the results?
By kibu

Re: Fastjet Working with Airbus

grizzlyb — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 21:42:00 GMT

So there's no room for improving efficiency in African airlines? Isn't it a massively un-tapped market for LCCs? By grizzlyb

Re: Fastjet Working with Airbus

kibu — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 20:56:00 GMT

>>>potential market size in Africa<<< will shrink pretty fast if fuel prices go as predicted.

There's one group (quite large) looking at $200 and another (let's say, alternative) at $70. Both are working on present data. Another group is looking at $250+ which, frankly, is the camp I'm in. At $70 -Russia goes bust and Saudi Arabia implodes. Along the way Chaves' stress will give us plenty of warning. $70 won't happen. The rest is speculative.

Stelios was successful in earlier times. Lonrho and their operation, Fly540, failed in these earlier times. They tried hard. They cannot be blamed. But they need to acknowledge failure, give up and move on. Stelios "don't come into it." Fly540 has gone to meet its maker, it's pushing up the daisies, it's gone to meet its spiritual maker, it's an ex-airline.

Frankly, the ludicrously low cap and present resources of RUBI suggest that this is yet another Arlington Street venture that will not fly.

kibu
By kibu

Re: Fastjet Working with Airbus

grizzlyb — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 00:01:00 GMT

It's a strange game, isn't it, but all seems legitimate so far. You'd think the Fastjet website would continue to show some updates, but it's their call, and easyGroup are being paid to advise rather than advertise. I only have a small holding here so just playing along with them really, but given the restrictions on Stelios competing in Europe, and the potential market size in Africa, it might be a fun game to play. By grizzlyb

Re: Fastjet Working with Airbus

kibu — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 22:39:00 GMT

Well picked up, grizzlyb. I'm still trying to understand the game that's going on here.

You'd think that, if there's real substance to all this, Fastjet's own official website would make mention? Nada.

Since I last posted, not only did oil not fall back, it rose. At one stage Brent reached 12843 (on the false Iranian article about the Saudi pipeline fire). Tonight it's 12619, some 300 points up from a month ago. This, within a single month, adds about 1% to operating costs - for some airlines that's the difference between a profit and a loss.

This weekend, Iran gets kicked out of SWIFT ie a large part of their conventional monetary dealings with the world will become inoperable. I've read reports that the Chinese may pay them in gold. The Indians (world's biggest gold buyer) are also big buyers of Iranian oil but are currently getting an unpleasant squeeze from the US. How do you think the Iranians will react to all this?

Look forward to some action. Airlines could be a fantastic trade if you are on the right side. Investment though? Stelios is no cydiot. He'll only pay when it's time. Meanwhile, enjoy the hubris. Rubicon is worth its cash balance minus its liabilities - somewhere south of the present mkt cap.

kibu By kibu

Fastjet Working with Airbus

grizzlyb — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 13:23:00 GMT

http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/news/76-hot-topic/33910-nigerian-airlines-face-test-as-regional-low-fare-airline-nears By grizzlyb

Fund manager buys under-the-radar, out-of-favor stocks

SpikeyDT — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:16:00 GMT

March 7, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST
5 money moves a global value-hunter is making
Fund manager buys under-the-radar, out-of-favor stocks
http://bit.ly/A4w4FD By SpikeyDT

LCC start-up Fastjet targets under-served markets in West Africa, starting with Ghana 1st March, 2012 http://bit.ly/wespMc .

SpikeyDT — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 06:07:00 GMT

LCC start-up Fastjet targets under-served markets in West Africa, starting with Ghana
1st March, 2012
http://bit.ly/wespMc By SpikeyDT

Stelios to Invest in West Africa Carrier..

SpikeyDT — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 10:03:00 GMT

February 27, 2012 10:57 am
Stelios to Invest in West Africa Carrier
http://bit.ly/yno47W By SpikeyDT

Re: Bloomberg Mention

grizzlyb — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 10:16:00 GMT

kibu, I'd hope the easyGroup feasability study took your concerns into account...some important points there that I'd be concerned if they'd missed! By grizzlyb

Re: Bloomberg Mention

kibu — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 19:52:00 GMT

"Could" be but doubtful. Kenyan Airways fleet is relatively young and fuel efficient. Fly540's (if it becomes part of Rubicon) is not.

Since the date of your post crude prices have risen dramatically. There has been a raft of bad airline news in the last 10 days, mostly reflecting oil prices from last year. Crude prices have already risen 14% in the last seven weeks.

Any 'new' airline will be starting with the present inflated cost base (wrt Africa - fuel and crew). Some airlines hedged at lower prices and will be affected less by short-term spikes - if that's what present prices are. If prices hold up long-term, the different issue is, who will be able to afford flight travel?

Either way, February 2012 leaves Rubicon in a bit of a cleft stick.

News of the suspension in trading of Rubicon shares and the rather vague wording of the press release, leaves investors holding high risk paper which has risen on pure speculation and may just as quickly collapse.

kibu

BTW Bloomberg seem to have lost their way a bit or no longer check their reporters. If you want to cheer yourself up while waiting hopefully for Rubicon to trade again, read their recent uncritical reports on Lonrho. By kibu

FT-Sir Stelios plans west African venture..

SpikeyDT — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 21:12:00 GMT

February 22, 2012 7:55 pm
Sir Stelios plans west African venture
By Arash Massoudi
http://on.ft.com/wQBEhJ By SpikeyDT

Bloomberg Mention

grizzlyb — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 18:41:00 GMT

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-01/kenya-airways-drops-most-in-more-than-2-weeks-nairobi-mover.html

What is bad news for Kenya Airways, could be very good for us. By grizzlyb

The Independent........

SpikeyDT — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 00:07:00 GMT

David Kuo: Africa need not be a dark continent for small shareholders
Investment Insider
DAVID KUO SUNDAY 29 JANUARY 2012
http://ind.pn/z5uEj5 By SpikeyDT

Daniel Stewart.

SpikeyDT — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 14:41:00 GMT

Lonrho geared to US consumer recovery, suggests broker
1:53 pm by Philip Whiterow
http://bit.ly/zsybGW By SpikeyDT