Sterling Energy PLC Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4168242
I have just been doing some calculations on WZR valuation in Kurdistan where they are currently drilling. Modelling a ca 400mb discovery and using their more readily available information re terms I calculate an UNRISKED PV of ca $800m the analyst community has assigned a pre-drill risk of 33% to their prospect giving a RISKED PV of $266m. As I have said before I genuinely think their block is better than Sangaw as it has more likely structures and has a variety of geologic plays. But that is not important here.

These valuations seem to fit with the new entrant prices being paid by Talisman and the Koreans.

In the case of WZR they have a market cap of about $480mCAN and $170mCAN in Cash. The only asset they hold is Kurdistan which would imply that the market values Kurdistan at $210mCAN. This means that the Canadian market is assigning ca 78% of the risked prospect PV of the currently drilling prospect.

On the assumption that SEY have got the same economic terms (?) and that they will ultimately come up with a prospect of equivalent size and risk in Sangaw, and that they do not get diluted further then Sangaw should be currently valued at $250plusm.

As far as I see it the current SEY share price seems to be supported by the Core NAV of the producing assets. IF SEY could do the same IR job as WZR one feels that they too could get the market to assign as a minimum say 50% of the RISKED PV of Sangaw giving a boost of £70m to the market cap. Surely in the event of a WZR success next month, even this management could manage to get the market juices flowing IF they have shot their seismic, IF they have a rig and if they have a few maps to show.

The reality is that the market isn't going to do that with this management but as I have been saying before you can bet your bottom dollar that the industry is doing so.

Somebody must make a move soon.




By TheDandy ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4168242&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:42:00 GMT TheDandy tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167751
I'm thinking at least 9-14p to begin. By payoff ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4167751&action=detail Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:30:00 GMT payoff tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167218 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4167218&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:10:00 GMT hoodshank tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167172
We are all suffering a bit on this one at moment though ( I can tell you that I am showing a loss north of 5K but what the hell. I think this will come right for those who hold their nerve...

If sale is done piece-meal I think this would be most likely to be detrimental to the sp unless they get lucky with a couple of punters bidding for each discrete part of the US business,

All the best and happy days

poitin By poitin ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4167172&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:22:00 GMT poitin tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167114
Question... what happens if sale is done piece-meal. is this likely to be detrimental to the sp i think most anticipate one buyer for whole of US investment. By wreckage ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4167114&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:30:00 GMT wreckage tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167102
I think your post is very funny, so there is no need to apologise to me.

Meanwhile back at the SEY ranch I believe we are plumbing the bottom of the sp and that anyone selling out at this level either has an expensive daughters wedding to pay for or has absolutely no bottle!

All the very best

poitin By poitin ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4167102&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:14:00 GMT poitin tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166956 regards By chopper1000 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166956&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:18:00 GMT chopper1000 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166947
HOPE THIS SHARES A WINNER FOR US ALL By RaceyNo1 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166947&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:14:00 GMT RaceyNo1 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166941 It is not my wish to fall out with anyone but I ONLY post as Fydo on here and fido on advfn.
Throughout my posting history I have ALWAYS given my honest opinion and have NEVER sought to deceive.
I would have thought that anyone reading my posts over a number of years would have formed an opinion and would not think anything different. By Fydo ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166941&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:09:00 GMT Fydo tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166930
I said appears to be, not was, I am wrong and therefore verty sorry to have upset you.

Look we need to find some middle ground here, we have not always seen eye to eye which is a shame. It's now a couple of years on since that spat and I think we should put it behind us.

I really do respect what you do and post, with your research which I have said is outstanding.

I hold here and will continue to do so to the end game now.

So how about it?

I know you will be angry and may say no, but maybe you could consider the offer later and lets see where that takes us. By seawallwalker ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166930&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:58:00 GMT seawallwalker tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166922
I think the negative votes on what seawallwalker has to say speak volumes. Don't give it a moments thought. Been reading some of your posts today over on the DGO board, fascinating as ever, perhaps shortly you may also add your thoughts on SEY. Disregard what the short termers and derampers have to say, the long term investors value your input. It's not your job to teach, but studying what you say and the thought processes behind it have taught me much.

Drg has made some useful posts on ADVFN recently and so has drrichard.

Best regards,
JF
By Jonny Flame ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166922&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:52:00 GMT Jonny Flame tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166911 Follow fydo and DYOR stop writing tripe.
We all want this share price to go up ,but not the way you and others are doing it. By RaceyNo1 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166911&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:43:00 GMT RaceyNo1 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166904 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166904&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:38:00 GMT RaceyNo1 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166765 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166765&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 15:58:00 GMT payoff tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166746 Your last post is a blatent lie and I have reported you to iii. By Fydo ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SEY.L&display=discussion&id=4166746&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 15:49:00 GMT Fydo