Smurfit Kappa Group PLC Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9366539 http://twitinvestor.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=384&action=edit By EoinHouly ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=9366539&action=detail Wed, 29 Feb 2012 12:19:00 GMT EoinHouly tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9337285
Just posted Part V of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, including valuation and some commentary about Smurfit Kappa:

http://wexboy.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/the-great-irish-share-valuation-project-v/

Cheers,

Wexboy By Wexboy ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=9337285&action=detail Thu, 23 Feb 2012 02:03:00 GMT Wexboy tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9262609 My fair value for SKG: € 19.7 (up from € 16.2). By vpascalg ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=9262609&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 10:07:00 GMT vpascalg tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9261737 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=9261737&action=detail Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:44:00 GMT Flatly tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9075556 16 december 2011


Shares in Irish packaging group Smurfit Kappa will rebound in 2012 if the company successfully refinances a chunk of debt in the new year, Davy stockbrokers has predicted.

Shares in Europe's largest market of cardboard boxes have been hammered in recent months as the debt crisis in Europe continued to unfold. But Davy reckons the underperformance of Smurfit Kappa's stock relative to its peers is unwarranted, even given the cut in profit forecasts. Shares in the company are down about 42pc in the year to date and have fallen 55pc since June.

"The market still seems to have doubts about the company's ability to refinance the debt maturing in 2013 and 2014," noted Davy analyst Barry Dixon. "The bond market has no such concerns, with Smurfit Kappa's bonds recovering strongly from the weakness in June and now trading at close to par," he added.

Mr Dixon said he thinks it's possible the company can refinance the maturing debt at a "manageable incremental cost" given the low inter-bank rates and the company's gross cash balances. Mr Dixon has an 'outperform' rating on the stock with an €8 price target. By vpascalg ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=9075556&action=detail Fri, 16 Dec 2011 10:53:00 GMT vpascalg tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9018758 1 DEC 2011

Following the announcement of the Q3 figures Gary McGann (CEO) said:

"Over the past four years, we have strengthened our business platform through significant debt paydown and unrelenting cost reduction actions, which will sustain the delivery of strong cash flows and improving returns through the cycle. We are committed to continue building our strong market credentials in the areas of packaging innovation, customer service and sustainability. In that context, despite softening demand, we expect to deliver a full-year 2011 EBITDA performance in line with current market expectations, and re-affirm our target to reduce net debt to €2.85bn by the year end." By vpascalg ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=9018758&action=detail Thu, 01 Dec 2011 10:43:00 GMT vpascalg tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8985557 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8985557&action=detail Wed, 23 Nov 2011 13:56:00 GMT EoinHouly tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8956018
No-one in the industry will get anywhere near their EBITDA target this year and next years will be marked lower still for sure.

Very short profit increase cycle this time and could be outlived by the downturn. The industry is in for a difficult period just before SKG needs some large refinancing. By Walton le Daler ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8956018&action=detail Wed, 16 Nov 2011 09:18:00 GMT Walton le Daler tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8923879 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8923879&action=detail Tue, 08 Nov 2011 13:16:00 GMT Walton le Daler tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8828366 10 October 2011

The outlook for economic growth continues to deteriorate in Europe with consensus GDP for the region now standing at 1.7% for 2011 (1% for 2012). Containerboard prices have declined by up to €40/tonne since July, reflecting the impact of potentially slower demand and rising inventory levels. Corrugated prices, in our view, have yet to reflect this weakness but are likely to do so in 2012 if demand conditions remain subdued. We are therefore adjusting our 2012 forecasts for Smurfit Kappa Group to reflect this likelihood.

Our previous forecasts had already assumed a benign demand environment in Europe in 2012 with no volume growth. We had also assumed flat corrugated prices, which looks optimistic in the current environment. We are now forecasting that corrugated prices will fall by c.3% in 2012, largely reflecting the recent decline in containerboard prices. We also assume that OCC prices decline by a further €10/tonne from current levels to close to €130/tonne. This results in 2012 EBITDA of €1,027m versus our previous forecast of €1,074m (-4%). We are leaving our 2011 forecasts unchanged at €1,042m.

It now appears that the current up-cycle has ended prematurely. This implies that peak EBITDA in the current cycle will be below the peak of €1,064m achieved in the last cycle in 2007. This is disappointing given the €300m cost-saving programme successfully implemented by the company over the 2008-2010 period and the additional €150m cost programme currently being implemented.

What is impressive about the above is the group's continuing strong cash generation despite the reduction in forecasts. Based on the current share price and our revised 2012 free cash-flow forecasts, the stock is generating a free cash-flow yield of over 30%. Net debt will continue to decline, which should accrete value to equity-holders, assuming no further deterioration in valuation multiples from the current depressed levels.

As we have outlined previously, trough EBITDA in this cycle is likely to be over €800m (versus €741m at the last trough in 2009). This assumes that only a small percentage of the cost-saving programmes will be sustained. Based on this estimate of trough EBITDA, the stock is trading at 4.7 times. This is in line with the trough in Q1 2009. Since then, net debt has declined by over €300m and the net debt/EBITDA ratio has fallen from over 4.0 times to 2.9 times based on the potential trough.

Applying a more normal trough multiple of 6 times implies a price target of over 900c. We believe therefore that the stock has been oversold and reiterate our 'outperform' rating. By vpascalg ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8828366&action=detail Mon, 10 Oct 2011 10:53:00 GMT vpascalg tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8820581 6 OCT 2011

Irish packaging group Smurfit Kappa said on Thursday it would hang on to its Venezuelan land in what it described as a battle of wills against plans by President Hugo Chavez to take it over.

Chavez urged his agriculture minister to speed up the government takeover of land owned by Smurfit in August after first ordering the seizure of a eucalyptus tree farm belonging to the Dublin-based company in 2009.

Smurfit, which owns forestry land, plants and mills in over 30 countries from Russia to the Dominican Republic, said it expected more calls from Chavez ahead of elections in a year's time but that the company was not concerned.

"Land is a big populist subject for Chavez and his merry men, and they have a view that forestry is negative," Gary McGann said at a conference broadcast from New York. "Coming up to an election, he likes to give land to the people.

"You'll get continuous noise, particularly as the election comes closer, and I won't say that there won't be changes, but we'll continue to be able to access our forests and our trees and make paper.

"It's a battle of wills all the way, and our forestry and mill people are basically having none of it."

Smurfit said it owns 35,000 hectares of forestry land in Venezuela. The land seizure ordered two years ago involved 3,700 acres.

Chavez has nationalised large swathes of Venezuela's economy, including much of its vital oil sector, and has taken over big farms deemed idle, giving them to small farmers in an effort to stimulate farming and combat poverty.

McGann said Venezuelan retail business needed Smurfit's services.

"Without us, there won't be any products packaged in Venezuela, and that would be a serious problem. As it is, a lot of products on the supermarket shelves are in short supply. If they haven't got packaging, they are going to be in serious short supply."


SOFTENING DEMAND

Smurfit's Latin American operations accounted for 22 percent of its 507 million euro first-half adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), thanks to strong performances from Venezuela and Argentina.

Smurfit reaffirmed it full-year targets for 2011 on Thursday, saying it was still targeting a reduction of its total net debt to 2.85 billion euros by the end of the year from 3 billion at end-June.

McGann added that the group saw demand in its European businesses softening in the second half of the year as a result of countries cutting their gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts.

"A good benchmark for our business in general is GDP, so the GDP growth levels that you begin to see reforecasting in Europe at about 1.5 percent really says second half (demand) will be soft," McGann said.

"Obviously the mix between Eastern Europe and Western Europe is quite significant." By vpascalg ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8820581&action=detail Thu, 06 Oct 2011 19:21:00 GMT vpascalg tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8648032 ')" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0811/1224302231499.html

sorry i meant 2013 and they are planning to refinance

Huge value in this stock By value7 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8648032&action=detail Fri, 12 Aug 2011 12:21:00 GMT value7 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8648008 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8648008&action=detail Fri, 12 Aug 2011 12:18:00 GMT value7 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8642052 11 AUGUST 2011

A massive sell-off of stock in packaging group Smurfit Kappa in the past couple of weeks has partly reflected a failure to grasp strong fundamentals within the company, its chief executive Gary McGann claimed yesterday.

Speaking to the Irish Independent as Smurfit Kappa recorded a 20pc jump in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to €264m in the second quarter and a 10pc rise in revenue to €1.86bn, Mr McGann conceded that many investors remained uncomfortable with both cyclical and leveraged companies, but insisted they had ignored "massive fundamentals".

Mr McGann said that Smurfit Kappa, which is Europe's leading producer of cardboard packaging products, had achieved a number of goals, including an improved net asset base and greater efficiencies in the past couple of years.

"Some people are talking about whether this is the top of a cycle or a break in the cycle, but this is not a normal industry cycle," he said.

The company's shares have been hit hard amid recent global financial turmoil, although Mr McGann said that demand, as far ahead as the group had visibility, had remained strong, particularly in key markets such as Germany.

He added that while domestic demand within countries it operated in was important, a significant amount of the packaging it manufactured in countries including Germany and the Netherlands was destined for use in exports.

"It's one of the great advantages of being big and diverse," he said regarding turbulence in Europe. "You're not immune from it, but you can mitigate against it." By vpascalg ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8642052&action=detail Thu, 11 Aug 2011 09:22:00 GMT vpascalg tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8639172
REUTERS
10 AUGUST 2011

Irish packaging group Smurfit Kappa has seen no evidence of a downturn in its business since earnings grew by 25 percent in the first half of the year but can't rule out such a development, its chief executive said on Wednesday.

"We do not believe in the current climate that we are in a typical industry cycle move. We see significant uncertainty which is effectively governed by sovereign issues in both Europe and the U.S.," Gary McGann told analysts in a conference call.

"While we do not see any immediate downturn in our business in July or indeed alarm bells in August, obviously in this current climate of uncertainty we can't rule it out. If we do see any impact ... we are in better shape than we were previously." By vpascalg ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:SKG.L&display=discussion&id=8639172&action=detail Wed, 10 Aug 2011 14:27:00 GMT vpascalg