Interactive Investor

Best of the boards: Quindell, BHP Billiton, Balfour Beatty

21st August 2014 13:21

by Harriet Mann from interactive investor

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Interactive Investor takes a look at what users on the discussion board have been saying about the most actively discussed news of the last five days.

Quindell's long awaited trading update was published, which despite reporting strong figures, caused the share price to nose dive by about 7%.

Balfour Beatty rejected Carillion's third merger offer, saying that the revised proposal did not satisfy two of its major concerns, and BHP Billiton confirmed it is to create a spin-off company of its poor performing assets, which will be listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, with a secondary listing in South Africa.

Quindell

What happened: If troubled Quindell thought releasing its first-half results would finally put investors' concerns to bed, it looks like it may have been wrong. Despite half-year results showing strong growth and a positive outlook, the share price fell by nearly 8% in morning trading.

Confirming its pre-close statement, gross sales rose by 118% to £364.2 million, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) up nearly two-fold at £156 million. Following the same trend, adjusted pre-tax profit was up 193% at £153.6 million, giving adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 29.6p, up by 79%.

Better management of its cash saw Quindell spend around £51 million, under the £60 million set aside for significant growth in the period. The outsourcer generated £220 million of cash in the six months, around £1.8 million per business day. Cash income from its Legal Services, £500,000 a day by the end of the period, is expected to underpin its second half cash guidance. The company is targeting £1 million by the fourth quarter.

Chairman Rob Terry said: "The group has achieved significant growth with approximately 90% of revenue in the last six months being organic, and only 10% being from acquisitions made over the previous 12 months."

The update bought "significantly more transparency" to its Services division, which accounted for 82% of first-half revenues, says Cannacord. Income from Legal Services made up two thirds of its Services earnings.

And after becoming operationally cash flow positive in July, it is confident of its outlook for the rest of the year. Quindell expects to meet all of its key performance indicators, which includes cash conversion, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. Another suggestion of the company's belief in itself is that Terry has an 11% stake in the company.

What users said:On the Interactive Investor discussion board, 'onedb1' thought the update looked "pretty good", and 'armagain' described it as "fantastic". Before the market opened, 'Nigethesnake' predicted the share price movement. "Im guessing 250p-270p today and 300p by Friday."

'Dave297' commented: "Solid results, as expected, justifying the strong share price over the last few days. We still have much to prove to a cynical market and as I have previously said it will take a few more positive trading updates to fully repair the damage."

After the market opened, however, 'Global Nomad' described trading as "chaotic" and many users were questioning why the share price had fallen after strong results.

'Bistable' added: "Great numbers - as expected but no reference to Quindell's biggest RAC deal has really spooked me, in addition no mention of US telematics trial progress - cannot remember share price being so unstable."

But 'daw2905' replied: "'All core business relationships remain strong', I think the RAC deal must count as a 'core business relationship'."

"Is this not just a case of 'buy on bad news, sell on good news' as the interim results were good news, you get initial selling as some profit take, either that or the shorters are trying to manipulate the share price and see their lackies are already trying to spread 'bad news'," added 'ajacko'.

Balfour Beatty

What happened:Being valued at a 36% premium to its average share price was not enough for Balfour Beatty. It's rejected Carillion's merger bid for the third time.

News of the rejection rocked the market, with £100 million being wiped from Balfour Beatty's value in morning trading.

Balfour claims the new bid did not address two key concerns about the merger; the risks surrounding the business plan and Carillion's demands that the sale of Parsons Brinckerhoff should be terminated.

Carillion hoped that its new bid would win Balfour over to restart merger talks and see the extension of the "Put Up or Shut Up" deadline. But it seems Balfour wants the support services firm to shut up.

But the bid was only slightly sweetened, with Carillion offering Balfour's shareholders 58.3% of the combined company, up from the 56.5% originally proposed. It valued the construction firm at £2 billion (302p per share). Carillion reiterated its plans for an additional 8.5p cash dividend for Balfour shareholders.

Balfour said in a statement on Wednesday: "The board also notes that the revised proposal represents only a small value change in the terms compared to the proposal from Carillion rejected on 11 August 2014."

What users said: After Carillion published its revised offer on Tuesday, 'one4all' thought it was a "done deal", rating the stock 'buy'. Yet 'Alan Tittymarsh' replied on the Interactive Investor discussion board: "It isn't anywhere near a done deal. The market is clearly cynical about it. The share price is nowhere near the bid price which it would be if the market thought there was any real chance of a merger."

After the rejection, 'dazedandconfused' commented that it is likely Balfour has already secured a good price for Parsons.

But 'Current Investor' was less than optimistic. "This board are trying the patience of everyone, what are they trying to achieve? The takeover gave the chance of improved cash flow and higher profile so to reject on flimsy answers is beyond belief."

Agreeing, 'Okgetreal' said: "They could have at least considered for a bit longer. I was in a meeting yesterday afternoon and would have taken 260 as a price to sell some, now no opportunity to offload this morning. Only hope is that Carrilion come in for the kill. It should be remembered we were at 320 in March, so Carrilion can still improve."

But 'indolent' wondered whether a hostile bid was now on the cards.

'Field Marshall Lodl' was also disappointed with the board, saying: "Carillion obviously scare them, the Balfour board is worried about its own back. Institutional investors are going to start ratcheting up the pressure to review their tactics. Selling Parsons, the source of 70% of Balfour's profitability, is a golden goose killed to save the balance sheet. Carillion are right in my opinion."

BHP Billiton

What happened: To streamline its businesses and improve productivity, BHP Billiton (BLT) confirmed its plans to spin off a selection of non-core assets in what one analyst has called an otherwise "boring" set of full-year results.

Profit from operations (earnings before interest and tax) rose by over 11% in the 12 months to 30 June to $23.4 billion (£14.05 billion), pushing basic EPS up by over 23% to 260p. In total, the miner has delivered over $6.6 billion of "sustainable productivity-led gains" over the last two years, thanks to beating its volume and cost efficiencies target by 61% at just shy of $3 billion. It is targeting an additional $3.5 billion of productivity-related gains by the end of 2017.

BHP said: "By further improving productivity and reducing our capital and exploration expenditure by 32% to $15.2 billion we delivered a substantial $8.1 billion increase in free cash flow, despite weaker commodity prices. As a result, our balance sheet continued to strengthen and we finished the period with net debt of $25.8 billion."

This expenditure is expected to fall even further to $14.8 billion in 2015, and even further still to a maximum of $14 billion should the demerger go ahead.

The new independent global metals and mining company will consist of BHP's current aluminium, coal, manganese, nickel and silver assets across five countries; including the Cerro Matoso nickel operation and Energy Coal South Africa. After retiring from the BHP board in November this year, David Crawford will take the helm as the new company's chairman and chief financial officer Graham Kerr will become chief executive.

What users said:On the Interactive Investor discussion board, most users were unhappy that the spin-off company would not be listed on the London Stock Exchange but in Australia, blaming this on the share price fall. 'Mutandis13' said: "BHP is making steps in the right direction, but I don't like the demerger off load on existing shareholders through an Aussie listing. There is still a lot more work to be done here to add value for shareholders."

"A problem of holding a dividend paying Australian company is the withholding tax is 30%," said 'MoleMan99'. "And furthermore if you are a 40% tax payer, you are taxed on the net amount you receive as a gross amount, so all in all you lose about 50% of the div in tax. I for one shall dump any Newco shares as soon as I can."

'Valeite' advised: "You're usually given an opportunity to exit on favourable terms. This was the case when Kraft bought Cadbury."

After calling the demerger a "disgrace", 'LK Hyman' explained: "Apart from the above caveat, the demerger looks pretty good to me. I suppose, grudgingly, that it's worth keeping potash as a potential diversification in an overall more focused portfolio. They've already spent 30% of the capital on Jansen, so I suppose they might as well go ahead and admit that it is a complete waste of money."

Agreeing, 'scwee' said: "Not sure I agree anyhow with the demerger, some work (eg Cookson), some don't (eg C&W). Where's the evidence for this one to work, other than from a Board who have destroyed shareholder value so spectacularly in the last 24 hours. Share buybacks (and many other corporate nonsenses) should be outlawed unless approved by more than 50% of voting shareholders (as opposed to voting shares)."

But 'Blanketstacker' did not think there would be much of an impact: "I can see this shift making little difference to be honest, other than some private investors will be left with shares they cannot hold, and those may be in the most profitable part of the company. (I don't hold here yet, but it is on my watch list. Overall I think this is overpriced at the moment, and further falls seem inevitable. I cannot but help think this news is just being used as a cover for those institutions who wished to sell anyway. It may be worth bailing out and buying back in later)."

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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