Best AIM companies predicted here

Winning awards is not always a good omen for companies, but next Thursday AIM firms will find out which of them has won gongs at this year's AIM Awards.

There are no great disasters among last year’s winners, although the gravity defying share price of WANdisco, which won the best technology award, has stopped defying gravity and fallen by two-thirds and its 2014 loss may be slightly higher than previously forecast. The share price of 2013 company of the year, online antibodies retailer Abcam, has also declined after peaking at around the time of the awards.

The 2014 AIM Awards will be announced at Old Billingsgate in London on 9 October and there are ten awards in total, including best performing share. The shortlists were announced one month ago but the winners are a secret until the night. Below are some guesses about who may win five of the big prizes.

Best use of AIM

• Learning Technologies Group

• Lekoil

• Redcentric

• Restore

Learning Technologies (LTG) is the new name for a business that has returned to AIM. E-learning firm Epic was acquired by Dods (then known as Huveaux) when it was originally quoted on AIM and then bought out by its management. Epic reversed into Harry Hill's would-be online conveyancing services company In-Deed Online after the original business was sold. Since then it has made two acquisitions and become a major player in a fragmented market. Further acquisitions are likely.

Last autumn, West Africa-focused oil and gas explorer Lekoil raised £62 million at 55p a share, then in May it raised a further £22.4 million at 67.75p. It has used part of these funds to acquire increased stakes in some of its exploration interests and the rest will finance their exploration programmes.

IT managed services supplier Redcentric (RCN) has demerged from Redstone in April 2013 and it planned to be a consolidator in its sector. Last December it acquired the core business of the former AIM company InTechnology for £65 million, which was financed by a £64 million placing at 80p a share which more than doubled the number of shares in issue.

Document storage services provider Restore has continued to make add-on acquisitions of records management and shredding businesses in order to widen its geographic spread of operations. The share price performance has been strong since Lord Ashcroft sold his substantial stake in the company (see entrepreneur of the year).

Best guess: Learning Technologies Group

Best newcomer

• Bonmarche

• Conviviality Retail

• Safestyle UK

• Tungsten Corp

This is quite a predictable list and they are all trading at a good premium to their issue prices. There is a consumer bias to it with value clothing retailer Bonmarche and alcohol and tobacco retailer Conviviality Retail (CVR), along with replacement windows and doors supplier Safestyle UK. These companies have all performed steadily since joining AIM, although the like-for-like sales growth of Bonmarche has been particularly strong, helped by growth in online sales.

Tungsten Corp is an e-invoicing business that has acquired a bank and intends to provide trade finance to its invoicing clients. The share price performance is the best of the four on the shortlist. The acquisition of DocuSphere on 2 September meant that Tungsten would have been in the minds of the judges when they voted later in the week. The innovative nature of the business may have attracted some backing, but the business has yet to prove that it can move into profit (see entrepreneur of the year).

Best guess: Bonmarche

Entrepreneur of the year

• Charles Skinner - Restore

• Edmund Truell - Tungsten Corp

• Graham Whitworth - Sprue Aegis

• John McArthur - Tracsis

Charles Skinner's company Restore is also up for the best use of AIM award (see above). Since joining the board Skinner has turned round the business and sold off non-core operations. Edmund Truell's company Tungsten is up for the best newcomer award (see above).

Graham Whitworth has been boss of smoke and carbon monoxide alarms supplier Sprue Aegis for years, but it has only been on AIM for a few months. The move from ISDX showed how undervalued the business had been and Whitworth has been the driving force behind the growth of the business.

Rail scheduling software provider Tracsis has a fan club amongst the institutional investors and its boss John McArthur must be a strong contender for the award having hardly put a foot wrong in his seven years on AIM. His acquisitions have been astute and he has built a profitable, niche software company with strong cash generation. Importantly, Tracsis always achieves or beats its forecasts.

Best guess: John McArthur

International company of the year

• OPG Power Ventures

• Plus500

• Somero Enterprises

• SQS Software Quality Systems

There has been scepticism about the customer figures declared by online CFDs trader Plus500 (PLUS) but the strength of the share price and apparently strong cash flow may count in its favour. Indian power producer OPG Power Ventures has used its quotation to raise money to invest in new power plants and the benefits of this investment are beginning to show through in its figures. German software testing company SQS has already won this award in 2008 and has successfully moved its model towards managed services rather than one-off projects.

One of the great things about US-based concrete levelling machinery supplier Somero is that it has weathered both the storm of the global economic crisis, and the downturn in construction that led to a fall in demand for its equipment, and come out of the other side. Somero has been on AIM since the end of 2006 and unlike many of its contemporaries it did not chose to ditch its quotation. After many years at a substantial discount, the share price moved back above the original placing price less than 12 months ago. It would be a worthy winner but may have to settle for the nomination.

Best guess: SQS

And finally…

Company of the year

• Alternative Networks

• Eckoh

• Prezzo

• Utilitywise

The voting panel tends to play safe with the main award of the night and three of the companies have been on AIM for nine years or more.

The decision about the award was made before restaurants operator Prezzo said that it was in talks with private equity bidders so this will not have any bearing on its chances. Prezzo is another restaurant business run by the Kaye family who sold Italian restaurant chain ASK Central to private equity buyers.

Telecoms and managed services provider Alternative Networks has consistently paid growing dividends since joining AIM thanks to its cash generative business, and it has a policy of growing its dividend by at least 10% a year. In February 2005, Alternative joined AIM via a placing at 100p a share and since then it has paid out 66.2p a share in regular and special dividends.

Eckoh could be the first company to move from the Main Market to AIM and win company of the year. It started life as 365 Corporation and then moved into speech recognition technology and switched to AIM in 2003. Recent growth has been particularly impressive as the focus has increasingly moved to secure payments services.

Many of the winners of the company of the year award graduate from winning other awards in previous years. Energy procurement consultancy Utilitywise won best use of AIM last year, but unlike the other candidates it has only been quoted since 2012. Earlier this year, existing shareholders took advantage of the strong share price to sell 11.5% of the company.

Best guess: Alternative Networks