Interactive Investor

Tuesday's winners and losers

14th October 2014 15:50

by Lee Wild from interactive investor

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A sharp increase in volatility during October is no surprise. The month has become synonymous with wildly gyrating markets ever since the Wall Street crash of 1929. Global stockmarkets have slumped in the past few weeks, and the VIX - a measure of short-term volatility often referred to as the "fear index" - has hit an eight-month high. Yes, this kind of market correction can fray the nerves, but it's not all bad news.

Volatility works both ways, and a quick glance at the daily statistics reveals double-digit percentage gains for 18 companies on Tuesday. Here, is Interactive Investor's take on a few of the day's most interesting stories.

Global Energy Development surged by almost two-thirds after the oil explorer sold its assets in the Llanos Basin in Colombia to Toronto-listed Platino Energy Holdings for $50 million (£31.3 million) in cash.

Last year, the Llanos assets generated revenue of $32 million and pre-tax profit of $4.7 million, but the sale is in line with the company’s well-flagged policy of developing its oil reserves in the Bolivar Block and the Bocachico Block located in the Middle Magdalena Basin, Colombia.

Of course, despite recent farm-outs, the company will need more cash to further explore and develop here. There will be costs linked to the sale, too, and there's £4.7 million of outstanding debt to pay off.

Still, at 54p, Global is valued at just £19.5 million, probably less than the sale proceeds. With the backing of its main shareholder and Lyford Investments, which together own 61% of the business, this is a done deal.

Allocate Software is a world away from Latin American mining, but it's shares have rocketed 34% after private equity firm HgCapital launched a £109.6 million bid, worth 153.55p per share, for the NHS software provider.

This is another done deal, and long-term shareholders will be sitting on substantial gains. There may, however, be some who'll lament the passing into private hands. Allocate has been on an improving trend for the past eight years and full-year results published in July were encouraging. Investors on the register on 14 November will get a 1.45p final dividend payment, too.

Anglo Pacific shares have been trading at levels not seen since early 2009, but now we hear that royalty income from Kestrel, Rio Tinto's coking coal mines in Queensland, for the first half of 2015 will be "significantly higher than previously assumed."

That's great news for Anglo as Kestrel typically provides most of its royalty income - it was 78% in 2013. Understandably, Anglo shares have bounced 13% higher to 128p, but, more importantly, this helps underpin a dividend yield of about 9%.

"The level of dividend payment is well understood by management to be of critical importance to shareholders; we expects it to be maintained," said broker finnCap, which reckons the shares are worth 158p. "This dividend is not covered by earnings although we expect profits to recover to the point where it is fully covered by 2016."

There have, of course, been heavy casualties, too, among them Superglass. Shares in the insulation manufacturer have just plunged 38% to 5.9p, a 16-month low. They were almost 55p in March.

A placing of 125 million shares at 5p each was the catalyst behind the latest sell-off. Superglass needs the £5.7 million net proceeds to fund a cost-cutting exercise and cover trading losses this financial year. Bosses had considered selling the main trading subsidiary, but decided instead to bankroll ongoing infrastructure investment with a further fundraising to improve efficiency and both customer and supplier confidence.

But there's an interesting twist here. Swedish activist investor Peter Gyllenhammar is taking a 38.9% stake in Superglass via his Bronsstädet AB investment vehicle. Under normal circumstances that would trigger a takeover offer, but Gyllenhammar is likely to get a waiver from the Takeover Panel on this occassion.

Gyllenhammar makes his living buying into companies trading at substantial discounts to net asset value or in need of restructuring. Others in which he currently has a stake include Pittards, NightHawk Energy, Trap Oil , Swallowfield, Mallett, 21st Century Tech and Serica Energy.

Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings has halved in value this year after its most recent disappointment. Following a warning last month, the clinical laboratory diagnostic supplier has downgraded sales forecasts again.

Automated revenue fell by 9% in the first half and Panmure Gordon reckons management may axe the dividend if current headwinds persist. Ouch.

"(A) high proportion of fixed costs will result in brutal earnings volatility and forecast risk," warns the broker. "In this situation we prefer to take a worst case scenario to forecasts." Fair value is more like 15 times forward earnings, or 270p, it says.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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