Interactive Investor

Brexit in numbers: the winners and losers (so far)

18th July 2016 11:48

by Kyle Caldwell from interactive investor

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The full ramifications of how Britain's decision to leave the European Union will impact the economy will not be clear for some time, but as far as investors and savers are concerned there are some early winners and losers.

Here our sister website Money Observer rounds up the key trends that have emerged.

Stockmarkets

Initially, in the first couple of trading sessions following the Brexit vote announcement, global stockmarkets took fright and suffered heavy falls.

But three weeks on markets have largely recovered their poise, with Britain's FTSE 100 index up 5 per cent. The more domestically focused FTSE 250, however, was still in the red, down 3 per cent.

Overall, emerging markets have fared much better than developed ones. Research by broker AJ Bell for Money Observer found that Brazil (up 5.9 per cent), China (5.8 per cent) and Indonesia (5.3 per cent) have topped the stock market charts since 23 June.

At the other end of the table, the worst 10 stock market performers are all members of the EU. The bottom three are: Greece (-9.4 per cent), Ireland (-9.2 per cent) and Italy (-8 per cent).

Shares

The best performing FTSE 100 stock is silver miner Fresnillo, up 56 per cent, while the worst, housebuilder Barratt Developments, is down nearly 30 per cent. In second place is gold miner Randgold Resources, up 30 per cent, followed Glencore, another miner, which had gained 23 per cent.

Other big winners have been businesses that generate the majority of their earnings overseas, including engineer Rolls Royce (up 16 per cent) and technology stock ARM (17 per cent).

Defensive stocks have also fared well, benefiting from the fact that investors have been seeking out safe havens. They include utility Severn Trent (21 per cent) and drinks giant Diageo (16 per cent).

Dominating the losers' table are shares that are more cyclical and therefore more reliant on the fortunes of the UK economy. Housebuilders and banks have endured steep falls.

Funds

Research by FE Trustnet looked at the 2,000-odd funds available to retail investors across various Investment Association (IA) sectors, to find out which have been the best and worst-performing funds since last month's vote.

Gold funds dominated the winners' list. Top of the pile is MFM Junior Gold (up 38 per cent), followed by WAY Charteris Gold & Precious Metals (34 per cent) and Old Mutual Gold and Silver (33 per cent).

Bottom of the pile are commercial property funds, many of whom have moved to mark down the value of the buildings they own following the Brexit vote.

Aberdeen UK Property takes the wooden spoon (down 19 per cent), followed by Kames Property Income (-13 per cent) and L&G UK Property (-12 per cent).

Currencies

The pound plummeted in the early hours of 24 June when it became clearer that the 'leave' campaign was going to emerge victorious.

At one point it fell more than 10 per cent in a matter of hours, which at the time was a low not seen since 1985.

Sterling dipped below $1.30 at the start of July, before winning back some of its losses to trade back up at towards $1.33 by the middle of the month following the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Prior to the Brexit vote it was trading above $1.45.

Pensions

Already annuities have become even more unattractive. The fall in yields on gilts (another safe haven) is an unwelcome one for annuity providers, as most firms buy this type of bond to provide the income they pay to policyholders.

There have been a dozen or so rate reductions since Brexit. This means the best rate for a 65-year-old has fallen by 3.59 per cent, with £100,000 now buying an income of just £4,890 a year.

In the next edition of Money Observer, which will be on sale late July, we will go into much more depth in terms of how the Brexit vote may impact impacted pensions in the years to come.

Investment trusts

Investment trust share prices, like those of other equities, have been volatile. But, as more experienced investors can testify, this simply opens up more opportunities for brave investors to buy assets at cheaper prices.

Broker Winterflood has made no less than eight changes to its investment trust recommendation list in response to last month's historic Brexit vote.

Three of the new entrants to list have in recent weeks been flagged on the Money Observer website as attractive opportunities - Perpetual Income & Growth (7 per cent discount), JPMorgan Japanese (15 per cent discount) and RIT Capital Partners (0.4 per cent discount).

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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