Interactive Investor

The week ahead: OPEC meeting, Cranswick

25th November 2016 17:39

by Lee Wild from interactive investor

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Monday 28 November

Trading statement

Kainos Group, Trakm8 Holdings, D4T4 Solutions, Aberdeen Asset Management

AGM/EGM

Tuesday 29 November

Cranswick's decision to focus on its core protein operations saw its sandwich business sold in July for £15 million. Now, buying Northern Irish pork processing firm Dunbia Ballymena for an undisclosed cash sum expands its pig processing operations beyond Hull and Norfolk.

We'll hear more about strategy and acquisitions at the sausage maker's interim results on Tuesday.

Charles Hall, an analyst at Peel Hunt, predicts a strong first-half. Look for an increase in adjusted pre-tax profit to £38 million from £31.5 million a year ago. That's driven by like-for-like volume growth of around 10%, acquisitions and "benign" input costs.

However, the company, whose products are sold under brands like Sainsbury's "Taste The Difference", Tesco "Finest", The Black Farmer and Woodall's, will likely be hit by higher pig prices during the second half.

Management will give us more on that, but Hall thinks margin will fall from 6.6% in the first half to 5.8% during the final six months of the financial year.

Cranswick had a great first four months of 2016, but, a forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of around 19 is proving an obstacle to further serious buying.

Trading statement

Motorpoint Group, Park Group, Hogg Robinson, KCOM Group, Digital Barriers, Acal, GB Group, Eckoh, IG Design, Torotrak, Shaftesbury, SSP Group, Easyhotel, Countryside Properties, Patisserie Holdings, Topps Tiles

AGM/EGM

Wolf Minerals, Sabien Technology Group, Scotgold Resources, Mysale Group, CAP-XX

Wednesday 30 November

All eyes will be on the Austrian capital of Vienna on Wednesday as members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet to discuss a final deal on at least freezing, and possibly cutting, oil production.

The body made an "extraordinary" decision at a preliminary summit in September to limit production to between 32.5 and 33 million barrels per day.

Speculation had been rife that any production commitments might evaporate as soon as member countries' ministers had boarded the plane home, but there are a few reasons for oil investors to hope a deal - aimed at combating oversupply and thus supporting the oil price - could stick.

The expectation is that members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia) may all sign up to a cut, while Russia will agree to freeze its output at current levels.

As industry analyst and Interactive Investor contributor Malcolm Graham-Wood has written, Saudi Arabia's desire to support a growing oil price in advance of the planned float of its state oil company Aramco may be one of the driving forces behind this unusually successful push for supply cuts:

"It's an important one to get right. Keep the price up through 2017 and a number of rewards will be bestowed upon the faithful: the impact of the trillion-dollar capital expenditure cuts and, of course, the possibility of a successful Aramco float…"

And UBS analyst Jon Rigby on Friday said he expected a successful deal would "[lift] the floor" for the oil price, locking it above $50 for the winter - but he reminded investors not to discount the possibility of the meeting becoming a bust-up:

"An April 2016 Doha-style breakdown in talks should not be ruled out and might well see $40/bbl being tested.

"Over time, however, we believe that the crude market will increasingly resemble a 'normal' commodity market with prices set by marginal costs and the cyclical ebbs and flows in supply and demand."

"We remain confident in our base case that prices are headed towards a normalised range ($60-$80 per barrel)," he concludes.

At time of writing, Brent crude trades at $47.43 a barrel and WTI at $46.36.

Trading statement

BCA Marketplace, TCS Group, Abzena, Alpha Bank, RPC Group, LondonMetric Property, Findel, Sage Group, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Sanderson Group, F&C UK Real Estate Investments, Britvic, Merlin Entertainments, IG Group Holdings

AGM/EGM

Weatherly International, Ruffer Investment Company, Genedrive, Picton Property Income, Ferrum Crescent, Salt Lake Potash, Aura Energy

Thursday 1 December

Trading statement

Market Tech Holding, Grainger, Impax Asset Management, Greencore Group, Premier Asset Management

AGM/EGM

ASOS, The Brighton Pier Group, PureCircle, Rambler Metals and Mining, Revolution Bars Group, Hotel Chocolat Group, Ibex Global Solutions

Friday 2 December

Trading statement

Berkeley Group, Urban & Civic

AGM/EGM

Axa Property

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser

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