Two oil minnows to track

Caspian Sunrise (LSE:CASP)

It's always nice to find a share with a cheery name on this day when we're reminded when they stole the magic of flying. Even after all these years, the special feeling of looking up at an airplane remains a fond memory. Instead, we just look down and wonder where the bottom is.

This brings us rather neatly to Caspian Sunrise as the share price calculates with a bottom of 5.65p, something achieved twice in recent years. This, thankfully, indicates a share price which has tended play by our rules and creates the scenario where below 5.65p is very likely to provoke a slip now to 4.15p.

Rather conveniently this matches the ruling uptrend since 2013, hinting rather strongly at a coming bounce is achieved.

Visually, this sort of flamboyant flourish is the sort of nonsense we've come to expect to complete such a vile long-term downtrend this share exhibits.

Typically, any bounce should be expected to challenge the ruling downtrend, currently at 10.5p, though it'll be worth redrawing the line should 4.15p make an appearance.

Recently, we've become fond of tossing around calculations for numbers which, if bettered, will tend suggest a share has bottomed and now showing some upward strength.

In the case of CASP, in the event of the price trading above just 6.875p mid, it ticks the very first box to suggest it has already bottomed, giving the first sign of hope "something" is about to happen.

Of course, our favourite caveat remains - if it betters 6.875p as an opening second spike, forget it.

San Leon Energy (LSE:SLE)

Some months ago, we'd speculated of a bottom on San Leon at 18p (see inset on chart). Usually, when this sort of thing happens, we tend hope for a coming bounce to at least challenge the trend, but this particular share had a nasty movement the day prior to its last trading suspension.

In fact, we're surprised the "powers that be" were not asked to find justification for what happened.

Our inclination is to ignore the movement and, instead, regard the best hope as being a challenge of the real downtrend - currently at 29p. The next few days should allow a story to develop, so we may revisit the share.

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang, Shareprice, or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea. 

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.