Shabby 2 sox "perrenial disappointment" lol,I can think of other words to describe av but iii would not let me post them..
However in all the 15 years I have been in and out of this stock,it has always provided me with general income (mostly divs). In that time my investing money has gone nearly 20 fold up,so cannot be to negative..............
roll on 8th March,should see the div increase around 10% and maybe we can break and stay above £5.50
Apart from Brexit concerns why would AV share price fluctuate three times by up to 2% in a month? It now seems to be heading for the bottom of the dip at around 490p - 500p
I have added recently on consensus that AV is now a buy; hold mainly for the dividend but expect some capital growth but on the latter AV is a perrenial disappointment.
I've added another decent chunk to my holding. As I surmised, short term earnings forecasts have been lowered a little, which has caused the price to drift down a bit, but in my view these shares are undervalued by quite a bit.....
Aviva: light at the end of the tunnel, says Deutsche Bank
Insurer Aviva (AV) has completed its heavy lifting, according to Deutsche Bank, and there are increased payouts to come.
Analyst Oliver Steel retained his buy recommendation and increased his target price from 585p to 600p. The shares edged 1.6p higher to 508.1p yesterday.
After years of heavy lifting, there is light at the end of the tunnel, he said. A commitment to repaying at least £900 million of debt next year reduces leverage to near the peer group average 31% by 2019.
In turn, the normalisation of the leverage ratio and improved quality of earnings is enabling an uplift to the payout ratio to 55-60% by 2020, implying 10% per annum growth over 2018-2020 from a yield base that is already 0.7% above the sector.
He added that the prospects of above mid-single digit growth could see a re-rating of the shares over time from a price/earnings [ratio] 23% below the sector average.
I agree. I have a very substantial holding in Aviva, which I expect to be a good, long term, earner.
In my view Aviva is the best value large cap stock on the market today. I suspect that the announcement got a slightly cool response because a) the market seems to be topping and b) it's jam tomorrow, with a hint that today might only just hit targets, as a result of disposals.
There is also the perennial issue of 'can we have a big special divi now please?' , which I think is nonsense. These shares are going to yield quite enough and we don't want capital being eroded. What we do want to see is a building NTA and EPS number.
A couple of brokers have a 'Strong Sell' on this, possibly because earnings could fall when the whole stock market does.
I can recall reading that there should only be one real reason for holding a share and that is to expect a rising income over time. I read this a while ago in the days when deposit interest rates and bond yields were higher than share yields. Interestingly quite often thats not the case in todays crazy world.
I might be misinterpreting your comment Gooffy, but with stocks like Aviva where the aim is to expect a rising income over time its probably better not to get too fixated on the day to day share price. I appreciate that its been disappointing to see the share price underperformance of many financial stocks post credit crunch, but I sense that Aviva is being run well and as such with time the share price will appreciate. It might need a little patience, but I think and hope the share price will come good as confidence in the stock returns.
I was watching the transactions the day before the announcement. A huge purchase went through late in the day. So yet again someone was trading on insider information. I've commented on this over and over. The City is still rife with insider dealing.
Very positive statement. At a time when much of the domestic market faces an uphill battle to do more than maintain earnings against a miserable economic outlook, I think this growth potential will look increasingly attractive. I've added to my holding this morning.
Ibelieve that you need to be the registered Holder at the START of the Ex-Div date, so even if you purchase on the Ex-div date, you are too late to qualify for the up-coming dividend (If you sell on the Ex-Div date then you qualify for the dividend because you were holding at the start of that day)
Market wins and this is going nowhere for a while.FTSE up bigtime this year ,but AV. down.Just think what will happen to the sp come a correction or crash.Next thing to look forward to is the div payment and then yr end results in March
Div -x next week will see Aviva get to around £4.87ish befor hopefully a bounce back above £5.
Hows those buybacks working out? Not to good,in fact the only time I have ever seen buybacks work is with Sports Direct.A special div or a big rise in the current divs would have pleased shareholders and support the sp better.
The sp is much lower than it should be,but again AV. only reports twice a year as opposed to 4 times a few years back.Only a take over or merger is going to see the sp go up, a crash or correction may happen 1st quarter of 2018.
Would the conclusion be that AVIVA share price is unlikely to rise by more than say 10%.?
Because the FTSE average is about 4% anyway why not buy a tracker instead to give you safety in numbers to avoid the 1-stock risk like what happened with BT, Lloyds, Provident-Financial, Capita, etc..
Even Woodford Income funds are struggling due to focus on specific stock theme.
Alternatively. is there a chance of AVIVA being taken over or merging with others? or unlikely due to the regulatory environment.
Sorry, only just noticed your posting. I've commented on LRE on that board.
In my view all of the specialist non life insurers are overvalued. I wouldn't buy now. I should have bought back into RQIH, but it's been a bumpy ride.
The above will take a belting from the hurricane season, and should be cheaper in the spring. But I've held onto my BEZ to avoid paying a ton of CGT.
I don't like L&G, I think buying up extra annuity business is a bit risky.
I do like AV. best, but it's a complex beast and some people think it's running too lean ie it has too little capital. However I do have a big holding and am tempted to add to it. The share price is double NTA, which is quite rich.
I'm struggling to buy anything decent these days. My latest purchases have been WPP and RDW; the latter could be viewed as a risky buy.
I wonder if the recent weakness is due to the storm activity in the US? I didn't think Aviva was too heavily exposed to Catastrophe insurance or reinsurance though, but I could be wrong!
On a similar subject, a question for Greyinvestor, I have been out of Catastrophe insurers since my Catlin shares were bought out. It seems like this could be an expensive storm season, premiums might finally bounce back. Do you think this is the time to get back into these insurers? What are your current picks?
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