fool that I might well be I've topped up again here recently.. as much towards bringing my average down as anything .. position still pretty small and overall well under water now and I'd sell a good chunk of it in late 60's if this was to go back there ..I hear the buzz on low Platinum prices are a - big - problem and I also note that the ongoing fall in sibyane stillwater share price over the last year has been scary and so the value of the lonmin offer keeps going down .. and the dollar is weakening too..a very tricky situation.. but with a strengthening global economy demand for PGM should pick up and prices rise and SGL and Lonmin start to rise.. maybe/hopefully.. but as ever this is a super dangerous and tricky stock and so be very careful.. hard core players only imho...
"Sibanye-Stillwater files with competition commission
Sibanye-Stillwater (Tickers JSE: SGL and NYSE: SBGL) and Lonmin Plc ("Lonmin") advise that Sibanye-Stillwater has filed a submission with the South African competition authorities, with regard to the proposed acquisition of Lonmin which was announced on 14 December 2017 (the "Proposed Transaction"). As is required by the South African Competition Act No. 89 of 1998, the required stakeholders have also been duly notified.
Sibanye-Stillwater and Lonmin remain fully committed to the Proposed Transaction which they continue to expect to close in the second half of this year.
Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater, and Ben Magara, CEO of Lonmin, commenting on the filing, said: "We are delighted to have filed the submission with the South African competition authorities. The Proposed Transaction remains in the best interest of stakeholders and will create a leading mine-to-market producer of PGMs in South Africa."
Can not log on ( D ) or e-mail this morning.
Old 63p buy limit lifted ( set two week ago )@ 9.08
Two parts both show as sells ( not the buys they are ) Trade type "AT" ( not the type "O" jaf said there deals show as ( GCM yesterday ))
No mention of take-over since my original comment of 14.12.2017.
I must admit not following the take-over since. If the deal has not yet been done, then LMI appears to me to be becoming less and less attractive to a suiter - and then there is a risk of the deal folding. Sorry nothing much to add here.
I have just been going through the e-mails and spotted my name mentioned and so I have had a quick revisit of the figures in my simplistic way. I had a look at my earlier post and the thing that sticks out is the $/Rand exchange rate:- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/12/11674/twelve_month.stm
As LMI costs are quoted in Rand, then the recent strengthening of the Rand means that they get fewer Rand for their PGMs - I posted in November when the exchange rate was about 14 Rand per $ but now it is of the order of 12 Rand per $.
Platinum currently about $950/oz
So at 14 Rand/$ gives 13,300 Rand/oz - giving a profit margin with costs of about R11,500/oz. However, at R12/$ the income falls to R11,400 ie No profit margin at the moment, in fact at the current R11.87/$ ( ie~R11280/oz) they would be operating at a loss. (Of course some of their costs such as fuel will be priced in $ so it is not that simple).
It is ironic that one of the negative reasons that I gave was the apparent unwelcome political environment for miners: the subsequent introduction of a more business orientated politician may well have made things worse as it probably contributed to the strengthening of the R/$ exchange rate.
To conclude, things seem to be getting more challenging than made my previous post. With the price of gold relatively quite high now (about $1330/oz) I am not sure if there will be much increase in the price of PGMs so the future may just hinge on the exchange rate. So I do not think that LMI is a share that I see a clear 'buy' case for at the moment.
regulators have to approve first too.. cartelling by fewer players towards higher prices etc might not be seen as good.... plenty are saying that sgl will reduce combined output towards pushing up PGM prices and other producers will reciprocate..
LMI now has detached from SGL price drop too over extending the drop .
Must say that am tempted . the deal is ages away anyway and at these levels doubt it gets accepted , as offer is now too low vs assets . As platinum and palladium are doing rather well this divergence may well be the one to trade.
Have to say that I though 67ish ( trend line ) was going to hold )
1113 SGL implies deal at 66,4p ! vs 63.4p LMI now . A deal board at this point can do better if especially if dollar stays weak and metals rise , especially palladium which is at $1035 and Platinum a whisker away from $1000 at $995.
Am not sure if shareholders will agree a deal which is far away anyway . Much can change in my view .
Fair point shugg1e but if you think sgl is now oversold buying into LMI is appealing.. also this bid was a low baller to begin with imho and getting less appealing again and again as we go.. I'm more and more thinking the current bid will, one way or other, fail.. and they might in some way change it to make it a better offer.....whatever it may be a bumpy/volatile road for LMI in the short term.... so betting here is for hard core players only imho..
Generally, I don't see why LMI can't succeed on it's own.. at current levels of PGM it's doing reasonably imho..... and the now President seems to be more pro business ...
PS: asset value write downs are very subjective/gaming imho, P+L is the key thing..
Sibanye shares down about 16pc at a 12 month low. LMI will track the Sibanye share price making for some good trading opportunities. The LMI directors have recommended the bid even though they own no shares, will a higher bid materialise, who knows. Related commodity prices not too bad at present.
upper trend line seems to suggest higher 90s . Lets see
Once the gap was filled the rebound has been perfect , in line with a nice rebound in SGL , Platinum over $1000 ( that previously took LMI above 100p ) and great Palladium prices this latter commodity I have been trading since 2016 . A trend I ABSOLUTELY ADORE lol
So your 90p has quite a lot of reasons to be achieved , and I would argue a bit more too.
I have bought some more in late 60's and now early 70's in the hope that this will rally back towards 90 p in coming weeks.. (my overall bet still small(ish) and mostly - or even all - short term speculating only)
The takeover has not happened yet and has to get competition authority clearace and get voted through by shareholders before it does. So it may not happen ( The Lonmin directors have FA shares in Lonmin and so their block vote of their shares is irrelevant ..they have a lot of institutions to convince..It doesn't appeal to me at that price either btw.. a revised higher offer might though eg.. 125p maybe..)
Best you READ the notification RNS of PROPESED take over.. I cut and paste some here:
The Lonmin Directors consider the terms of the Offer to be in the best interests of Lonmin Shareholders as a whole and intend unanimously to recommend that Lonmin Shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme at the Court Meeting and the resolutions to be proposed at the Lonmin General Meeting which is to be convened to approve the Offer, as the Lonmin Directors have irrevocably undertaken to Sibanye-Stillwater to do in respect of their own beneficial shareholdings in Lonmin which amount in aggregate to 75,498 Lonmin Shares, representing approximately 0.026698 per cent. of the existing issued ordinary share capital of Lonmin in issue on 13 December 2017 (being the last Business Day prior to the date of this Announcement).
· Further details of these irrevocable undertakings are set out in Appendix III to this Announcement.
Structure of the Offer
· It is intended that the Offer will be effected by means of a scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the UK Companies Act between Lonmin and Lonmin Shareholders. The Offer will be put to Lonmin Shareholders at the Court Meeting and at the Lonmin General Meeting. In order to become effective, the Scheme must be approved by a majority in number of the Lonmin Shareholders voting at the Court Meeting, either in person or by proxy, representing at least 75 per cent. in value of the Lonmin Shares voted. In addition, special resolutions implementing the Scheme must be passed by Lonmin Shareholders representing at least 75 per cent. of the votes cast, either in person or by proxy, at the Lonmin General Meeting.
· The Offer is also conditional upon Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholders approving the allotment and issue of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares at the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholder Meeting in accordance with clause 8.2.2 of the Sibanye-Stillwater MOI, by way of an ordinary resolution. Sibanye-Stillwater will therefore seek the requisite approvals of the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholders for the allotment and issue of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares for the purposes of the Offer at the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholder Meeting which is expected to be held at or around the same time as the Lonmin General Meeting, both of which will be held as soon as reasonably practicable following the receipt of all the relevant clearances from the competition and regulatory authorities, in particular those in South Africa and the United Kingdom (or, if applicable, the European Union, in case a referral is made to the European Commission pursuant to Article 22 of Council Regulation (EC) 139/2004) (unless Sibanye-Stillwater and Lonmin otherwise agree).
· The Offer is subject to the further Conditions set out in Appendix I to this Announcement, including the receipt of the relevant clearances from the competition and regulatory authorities, in particular those in South Africa and the United Kingdom (or, if applicable, the European Union, in case a referral is made to the European Commission pursuant to Article 22 of Council Regulation (EC) 139/2004), the Licences Condition, the admission of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares to listing and trading on the Main Board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and to the full terms and conditions which will be set out in the Scheme Document.
· It is expected that the Scheme will become effective in the second half of 2018, subject to the satisfaction or (where applicable) waiver of the Conditions and certain furt
I have a modest holding in Lonmin and I'm wondering if there is anything I should be doing with regard to the take over. Will the shares I hold be automatically converted to Sibanye after takeover or do I need to cash in my existing holding and repurchase Sibanye or just take the money?
I'm worried that if I don't do anything I might find I'm left holding useless certificates.
Stock remains at a discount to conversion , we only saw the stock narrowing the gap a bit in the past few sessions when in the 90s.
SGL will do well with high platinum and palladium prices, not to mention Gold !
If they manage to reduce the labour costs then this acquisition is very smart at a very cheap price . They are effectively buying discounted assets and possibly doing away with the assets review. ( which is at $1.1bn ) much higher than current market cap.
Converting to Sibanye Gold ( at 0.967 rate ) might make great sense .
IMO of course < I looked at it not holding any shares . Just thinking out load here . I do though hold longs in Palladium futures .
From the Telegraph:
Under the terms of the agreement, Lonmin shareholders will receive roughly one share in the enlarged company for each Lonmin share they own, giving them roughly 11pc of the new entity. The deal represents a 57pc premium to Lonmin's closing price of 63.8p yesterday, the companies said.
Don't really understand the maths: 1 share in SS is 1527 Lonmin is 67p!
If I was a long term holder here- and some big institutionals are as well as some PI's - I'd be gutted by this offer .. this has been diluted to oblivion over the years.. (10's of pounds back in the day).. and even if youd particpated in rights and averaged down strategically £1 is a painfully low number..
Generally, I think the s/p is only at late 70's p as I type as many believe there is a big chance they'll not get the 75% required to vote this T/O thru.. perhaps if even vaguely close to 75% then maybe a higher offer is tabled to get T/O over the line.. although with management completely backing this current offer, enough may come out in coming weeks about the state of balance sheet - eg asset values -and lack of future profitabiliy prospects to make this sound like a fair and reasonable offer..
A hold for me to see if this goes into 90's p as in coming weeks.. also If t/o not going thru for whatever reasons, even though manegement explain worrying future issues during the process then this could come off a lot from here so i would be slow to add more here now in hope of 90's soon .. my remaining position is small so no biggie for me whatever...
A bit out of the blue! I doubt if it will be worth the indicated 100p when the dust settles down though. Currently trading at about 74.5p (and falling) - a useful increase. Now testing memory, wasn't £1 the value of the rights issue shares after consolidation a couple of years back? I think that I would accept this offer had I still been an LMI share holder as the price of platinum has been weak for a little while now.
I have been looking at the Rand / USD charts and am of the opinion that the Rand could be on the verge of a further weakening which would be good for Lonmin , life saving possibly
Palladium has been performing as I have been saying . Almost perfect forecasting when it tested 1000 it dipped in the 980s as I thought it would ( I use EWs for all commodities ) now I reckon this is moving to 1050 - 1075
Platinum is stuck but I will review the chart this weekend for a more updated opinion .
So good news from that perspective .
All in all I'd be happy . Yet the political nonsense and in fighting is your classic downfall of all African companies or union infested firms . They just don't learn .
Interesting chart pattern today Bullish harami cross if am right . Could signal a theoretical bullish reversal . Obviously candle patterns need to be combined with other western technicals for confirmation.
A rise on Monday may be the confirmation signal needed otherwise its invalidated
I remain a keen watcher as a rebound could be quite significant. They need to get rid of non core assets , clean it all up . stick to the main core activities and improve their productivity
There is no victory for them if they hurt shareholders more. It will just terminate this company . Unions over there are going to have to accept that the mine is over staffed or face the reality that you either accept lower numbers or have ZERO jobs left. Zero !! and then they can sit around a table all day a play kings of their fantasy world ! But with zero cash and in poverty .
Equally Lonmin has to cut to zero all the trophy assets and perks . Zero !
I had to turn over a company that was run with too many people and the top was also taking the biscuit . The harsh truth is that you either accept the drastic cost cutting or everybody will be on the dole . No point in asking for more cash from shareholders or investors. As the issues remain .
not to mind yesterday's end of day drop being wierd.. since I';ve been involved in this stock - say 3 years now - it has wierd written in block capitals all over it.. indeed it's one of the wierdest stocks I';ve ever come across.. volatile, unpredicatble, confused... but never ever boring..
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