" FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Something interesting happened with our "private" FTSE projection for Thursday as we'd given a bottom target at 7707 points. FTSE Futures hit 7707, crucially not going below. Firstly, it tells we were watching the ..."
Today's letter from Advfn -Lonmin was knocked down to sell at Liberum.
This stock is now too risky for me to buy back in. The price is just too low:-
and the rand rate is still getting stronger-
ie cost of mining in equivalent USD value is going up.
Once again this shows itself to be a tricky - tricky - stock .. ouch... fortunately my position here is not big and my loss remains relatively small..... and as I have been here before - on a lot bigger position and loss - and ended up, somehow, doing great, I still have a soft spot for this doggie.
Given this and Ashley House putting me in a good mood today, I have now - reluctantly - decided to keep small topping up into any further weakness here.. So I've just now done my first purchase in a while - at 49. something p - and would do another at 45p if it goes there.. etc.. hopefully it doesn't go there..
Again, hard core players only should play here imho: this is a very volatile / dangerous stock !
Am watching this everyday as out of the blue these stocks get different valuations
But surely LMI is not worth £169m !! lol !
Given the recent weakness in the rand and costs being the issue ( am also glad to see the cutting of 600 employees started last November) I'll be keen to trade the base here . As its clear that only 10%/20% cost cuts can return the mine to cash building very quickly .
This Sibanye buyout is a non starter at current conversion price
Wil be interested to see the 14th of May update
Looking at the website you can see how local initiatives to upgrade schools are very good. All this can be done if the mine is profitbale ! So can't see it in anybody's interest to watch this crash continue when the solution to work with more sustainable workforce numbers is obvious
Price has acted like the offer is a done deal for months ! But its not
Why would Lonmin accept this poor valuation ? At this rate any asset stripping would return a multiple of current market cap !
I will never understand why politicians are so thick . They are dense and for their totally deranged minds of keeping 10k people on some poor wage doing nothing all day they will bring down a mine that could have been profitable and paid back into society a lot of taxes ! As it stands sellling to Sibanye should be rejected and Lonmin has to embark in a serious cost cutting exercise to return the mine to profitability or it all goes to zero !
Nobody wins here by being so dense !
Dense and deserve the squallor they created !
Just angry myself as this mine could have made a fortune and great turn around story .
As it stands I hope they reject the deal and cut the workforce to normal industry levels
Sibanye-Stillwater seem to be accident prone. Apart from being very unfortunate for the miners who have lost their lives, it cannot be good for their finances and reputation to keep having these problems.
Find it strange that the future acquirer of Lonmin is trading so low
Gold has barely moved and is trading at a healthy £1340-1350 level .
South Africa index back above 50k ! I suspect the market downturn since Dec/Jan has been politically related and partly followed other world indices.
May get a rally especially if we see over 52k on the index and platinum , gold and palladium do better ! Surely if they pulled the proverbial finger out of ... and reduced labour costs the mine will turn a profit . The assets are worth far more than they are at the moment . Time for the politicians to really wake up and stop squandering time and money . Think a bit more rather than play games
just got in myself at 58.19p ....................58p seems to be strong support (probably jinxed it now i hav said that!) but hoping for a few more closes above that this week and then can see a rebound coming in the short term
towards bringing my average down to .65p.. I intend being fully out of this ahead of a takeover completing... guessing it will still complete but obviously not certain...
No to mind SGL's/p coming off meaningfully since the LMI offer in Dec., it has come off massively in the last year - Stillwater t/o not perceived as good I guess... but they're now in PGM game and in it scale is massive and so LMI bid too, I guess - and so SGL s/p will hopefully bounce back even a little in coming weeks/months.. and as its an all share t/o offer that feeds through to the LMI s/p almost directly...
Also Gold price ticks on up and Platinum prices often bounces back up when falls to around $900 and both should help the SGL/LMI s/p
fool that I might well be I've topped up again here recently.. as much towards bringing my average down as anything .. position still pretty small and overall well under water now and I'd sell a good chunk of it in late 60's if this was to go back there ..I hear the buzz on low Platinum prices are a - big - problem and I also note that the ongoing fall in sibyane stillwater share price over the last year has been scary and so the value of the lonmin offer keeps going down .. and the dollar is weakening too..a very tricky situation.. but with a strengthening global economy demand for PGM should pick up and prices rise and SGL and Lonmin start to rise.. maybe/hopefully.. but as ever this is a super dangerous and tricky stock and so be very careful.. hard core players only imho...
"Sibanye-Stillwater files with competition commission
Sibanye-Stillwater (Tickers JSE: SGL and NYSE: SBGL) and Lonmin Plc ("Lonmin") advise that Sibanye-Stillwater has filed a submission with the South African competition authorities, with regard to the proposed acquisition of Lonmin which was announced on 14 December 2017 (the "Proposed Transaction"). As is required by the South African Competition Act No. 89 of 1998, the required stakeholders have also been duly notified.
Sibanye-Stillwater and Lonmin remain fully committed to the Proposed Transaction which they continue to expect to close in the second half of this year.
Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater, and Ben Magara, CEO of Lonmin, commenting on the filing, said: "We are delighted to have filed the submission with the South African competition authorities. The Proposed Transaction remains in the best interest of stakeholders and will create a leading mine-to-market producer of PGMs in South Africa."
Can not log on ( D ) or e-mail this morning.
Old 63p buy limit lifted ( set two week ago )@ 9.08
Two parts both show as sells ( not the buys they are ) Trade type "AT" ( not the type "O" jaf said there deals show as ( GCM yesterday ))
No mention of take-over since my original comment of 14.12.2017.
I must admit not following the take-over since. If the deal has not yet been done, then LMI appears to me to be becoming less and less attractive to a suiter - and then there is a risk of the deal folding. Sorry nothing much to add here.
I have just been going through the e-mails and spotted my name mentioned and so I have had a quick revisit of the figures in my simplistic way. I had a look at my earlier post and the thing that sticks out is the $/Rand exchange rate:- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/12/11674/twelve_month.stm
As LMI costs are quoted in Rand, then the recent strengthening of the Rand means that they get fewer Rand for their PGMs - I posted in November when the exchange rate was about 14 Rand per $ but now it is of the order of 12 Rand per $.
Platinum currently about $950/oz
So at 14 Rand/$ gives 13,300 Rand/oz - giving a profit margin with costs of about R11,500/oz. However, at R12/$ the income falls to R11,400 ie No profit margin at the moment, in fact at the current R11.87/$ ( ie~R11280/oz) they would be operating at a loss. (Of course some of their costs such as fuel will be priced in $ so it is not that simple).
It is ironic that one of the negative reasons that I gave was the apparent unwelcome political environment for miners: the subsequent introduction of a more business orientated politician may well have made things worse as it probably contributed to the strengthening of the R/$ exchange rate.
To conclude, things seem to be getting more challenging than made my previous post. With the price of gold relatively quite high now (about $1330/oz) I am not sure if there will be much increase in the price of PGMs so the future may just hinge on the exchange rate. So I do not think that LMI is a share that I see a clear 'buy' case for at the moment.
regulators have to approve first too.. cartelling by fewer players towards higher prices etc might not be seen as good.... plenty are saying that sgl will reduce combined output towards pushing up PGM prices and other producers will reciprocate..
LMI now has detached from SGL price drop too over extending the drop .
Must say that am tempted . the deal is ages away anyway and at these levels doubt it gets accepted , as offer is now too low vs assets . As platinum and palladium are doing rather well this divergence may well be the one to trade.
Have to say that I though 67ish ( trend line ) was going to hold )
1113 SGL implies deal at 66,4p ! vs 63.4p LMI now . A deal board at this point can do better if especially if dollar stays weak and metals rise , especially palladium which is at $1035 and Platinum a whisker away from $1000 at $995.
Am not sure if shareholders will agree a deal which is far away anyway . Much can change in my view .
Fair point shugg1e but if you think sgl is now oversold buying into LMI is appealing.. also this bid was a low baller to begin with imho and getting less appealing again and again as we go.. I'm more and more thinking the current bid will, one way or other, fail.. and they might in some way change it to make it a better offer.....whatever it may be a bumpy/volatile road for LMI in the short term.... so betting here is for hard core players only imho..
Generally, I don't see why LMI can't succeed on it's own.. at current levels of PGM it's doing reasonably imho..... and the now President seems to be more pro business ...
PS: asset value write downs are very subjective/gaming imho, P+L is the key thing..
Sibanye shares down about 16pc at a 12 month low. LMI will track the Sibanye share price making for some good trading opportunities. The LMI directors have recommended the bid even though they own no shares, will a higher bid materialise, who knows. Related commodity prices not too bad at present.
upper trend line seems to suggest higher 90s . Lets see
Once the gap was filled the rebound has been perfect , in line with a nice rebound in SGL , Platinum over $1000 ( that previously took LMI above 100p ) and great Palladium prices this latter commodity I have been trading since 2016 . A trend I ABSOLUTELY ADORE lol
So your 90p has quite a lot of reasons to be achieved , and I would argue a bit more too.
I have bought some more in late 60's and now early 70's in the hope that this will rally back towards 90 p in coming weeks.. (my overall bet still small(ish) and mostly - or even all - short term speculating only)
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