The takeover has not happened yet and has to get competition authority clearace and get voted through by shareholders before it does. So it may not happen ( The Lonmin directors have FA shares in Lonmin and so their block vote of their shares is irrelevant ..they have a lot of institutions to convince..It doesn't appeal to me at that price either btw.. a revised higher offer might though eg.. 125p maybe..)
Best you READ the notification RNS of PROPESED take over.. I cut and paste some here:
The Lonmin Directors consider the terms of the Offer to be in the best interests of Lonmin Shareholders as a whole and intend unanimously to recommend that Lonmin Shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme at the Court Meeting and the resolutions to be proposed at the Lonmin General Meeting which is to be convened to approve the Offer, as the Lonmin Directors have irrevocably undertaken to Sibanye-Stillwater to do in respect of their own beneficial shareholdings in Lonmin which amount in aggregate to 75,498 Lonmin Shares, representing approximately 0.026698 per cent. of the existing issued ordinary share capital of Lonmin in issue on 13 December 2017 (being the last Business Day prior to the date of this Announcement).
· Further details of these irrevocable undertakings are set out in Appendix III to this Announcement.
Structure of the Offer
· It is intended that the Offer will be effected by means of a scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the UK Companies Act between Lonmin and Lonmin Shareholders. The Offer will be put to Lonmin Shareholders at the Court Meeting and at the Lonmin General Meeting. In order to become effective, the Scheme must be approved by a majority in number of the Lonmin Shareholders voting at the Court Meeting, either in person or by proxy, representing at least 75 per cent. in value of the Lonmin Shares voted. In addition, special resolutions implementing the Scheme must be passed by Lonmin Shareholders representing at least 75 per cent. of the votes cast, either in person or by proxy, at the Lonmin General Meeting.
· The Offer is also conditional upon Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholders approving the allotment and issue of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares at the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholder Meeting in accordance with clause 8.2.2 of the Sibanye-Stillwater MOI, by way of an ordinary resolution. Sibanye-Stillwater will therefore seek the requisite approvals of the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholders for the allotment and issue of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares for the purposes of the Offer at the Sibanye-Stillwater Shareholder Meeting which is expected to be held at or around the same time as the Lonmin General Meeting, both of which will be held as soon as reasonably practicable following the receipt of all the relevant clearances from the competition and regulatory authorities, in particular those in South Africa and the United Kingdom (or, if applicable, the European Union, in case a referral is made to the European Commission pursuant to Article 22 of Council Regulation (EC) 139/2004) (unless Sibanye-Stillwater and Lonmin otherwise agree).
· The Offer is subject to the further Conditions set out in Appendix I to this Announcement, including the receipt of the relevant clearances from the competition and regulatory authorities, in particular those in South Africa and the United Kingdom (or, if applicable, the European Union, in case a referral is made to the European Commission pursuant to Article 22 of Council Regulation (EC) 139/2004), the Licences Condition, the admission of the New Sibanye-Stillwater Shares to listing and trading on the Main Board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and to the full terms and conditions which will be set out in the Scheme Document.
· It is expected that the Scheme will become effective in the second half of 2018, subject to the satisfaction or (where applicable) waiver of the Conditions and certain furt
I have a modest holding in Lonmin and I'm wondering if there is anything I should be doing with regard to the take over. Will the shares I hold be automatically converted to Sibanye after takeover or do I need to cash in my existing holding and repurchase Sibanye or just take the money?
I'm worried that if I don't do anything I might find I'm left holding useless certificates.
Stock remains at a discount to conversion , we only saw the stock narrowing the gap a bit in the past few sessions when in the 90s.
SGL will do well with high platinum and palladium prices, not to mention Gold !
If they manage to reduce the labour costs then this acquisition is very smart at a very cheap price . They are effectively buying discounted assets and possibly doing away with the assets review. ( which is at $1.1bn ) much higher than current market cap.
Converting to Sibanye Gold ( at 0.967 rate ) might make great sense .
IMO of course < I looked at it not holding any shares . Just thinking out load here . I do though hold longs in Palladium futures .
From the Telegraph:
Under the terms of the agreement, Lonmin shareholders will receive roughly one share in the enlarged company for each Lonmin share they own, giving them roughly 11pc of the new entity. The deal represents a 57pc premium to Lonmin's closing price of 63.8p yesterday, the companies said.
Don't really understand the maths: 1 share in SS is 1527 Lonmin is 67p!
If I was a long term holder here- and some big institutionals are as well as some PI's - I'd be gutted by this offer .. this has been diluted to oblivion over the years.. (10's of pounds back in the day).. and even if youd particpated in rights and averaged down strategically £1 is a painfully low number..
Generally, I think the s/p is only at late 70's p as I type as many believe there is a big chance they'll not get the 75% required to vote this T/O thru.. perhaps if even vaguely close to 75% then maybe a higher offer is tabled to get T/O over the line.. although with management completely backing this current offer, enough may come out in coming weeks about the state of balance sheet - eg asset values -and lack of future profitabiliy prospects to make this sound like a fair and reasonable offer..
A hold for me to see if this goes into 90's p as in coming weeks.. also If t/o not going thru for whatever reasons, even though manegement explain worrying future issues during the process then this could come off a lot from here so i would be slow to add more here now in hope of 90's soon .. my remaining position is small so no biggie for me whatever...
A bit out of the blue! I doubt if it will be worth the indicated 100p when the dust settles down though. Currently trading at about 74.5p (and falling) - a useful increase. Now testing memory, wasn't £1 the value of the rights issue shares after consolidation a couple of years back? I think that I would accept this offer had I still been an LMI share holder as the price of platinum has been weak for a little while now.
I have been looking at the Rand / USD charts and am of the opinion that the Rand could be on the verge of a further weakening which would be good for Lonmin , life saving possibly
Palladium has been performing as I have been saying . Almost perfect forecasting when it tested 1000 it dipped in the 980s as I thought it would ( I use EWs for all commodities ) now I reckon this is moving to 1050 - 1075
Platinum is stuck but I will review the chart this weekend for a more updated opinion .
So good news from that perspective .
All in all I'd be happy . Yet the political nonsense and in fighting is your classic downfall of all African companies or union infested firms . They just don't learn .
Interesting chart pattern today Bullish harami cross if am right . Could signal a theoretical bullish reversal . Obviously candle patterns need to be combined with other western technicals for confirmation.
A rise on Monday may be the confirmation signal needed otherwise its invalidated
I remain a keen watcher as a rebound could be quite significant. They need to get rid of non core assets , clean it all up . stick to the main core activities and improve their productivity
There is no victory for them if they hurt shareholders more. It will just terminate this company . Unions over there are going to have to accept that the mine is over staffed or face the reality that you either accept lower numbers or have ZERO jobs left. Zero !! and then they can sit around a table all day a play kings of their fantasy world ! But with zero cash and in poverty .
Equally Lonmin has to cut to zero all the trophy assets and perks . Zero !
I had to turn over a company that was run with too many people and the top was also taking the biscuit . The harsh truth is that you either accept the drastic cost cutting or everybody will be on the dole . No point in asking for more cash from shareholders or investors. As the issues remain .
not to mind yesterday's end of day drop being wierd.. since I';ve been involved in this stock - say 3 years now - it has wierd written in block capitals all over it.. indeed it's one of the wierdest stocks I';ve ever come across.. volatile, unpredicatble, confused... but never ever boring..
'This time for a loss of 1.5p .'
Ha Ha ha aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! 1.5p Get real
Go on a crypto site for more excitement!
I have looked at Lonmin for a couple of years and it brings nothing but disappointment!
This is a company that can not deliver value.
One cavaet being that Lonmin mind find it harder to push through meaningful 'strategic change' if the SA government expect the sales prices it achieves, on average, being a little stronger next year.
Deep down i still feel the Lonmin s/p will comeback decently or even strongly in 2018, one way or other.. but of course that's just my instinct/guess...and I do have a biased soft spot for it as it has been good to me (very fortunately granted, as most holders, especially long-term, have been meullered over many recent years)
its big picture political stuff that is key here now imho - eg government allowing labour force cuts or serious pay restraint or asset sales/amalgams/ jv's / mothballs etc or how to value assets against a deteriorating economy backdrop eg far fewer non SA companies want to buy SA assets at all in current climate - not to mind an assets like Lonmins - or black empowerment share ownership rules etc. - and I don't have a clue how to quantify any one not to mind all of these variables together .. so it's stand on sidelines and watch for a few months time for me (with a now very small position still here for me )
will need patience and some confirmation for investors to jump back in .
Asset impairment issue will be interesting
Yet on the plus side :
Palladium following so far a correct correction ( I used EWs for commodities and expect this to go higher than $1050 . )
Platinum most importantly holding up well in the $930s )
From a cash perspective all the above is positive for LMI and the current quarter should continue the good trend we have had lately .
Little Risk on for me here . Stress this is risky and am not in with more than 1 position ( out of 4)
I've been reading this and other boards (LSE/ADVFN). I'm only registered here though.
Cash from operations to service debt payments does not seem to be the immediate problem. Having said that free cash flow is potentially under pressure mid-term because they have a large, unionised direct labour force. It would be hard to cut that force because of union resistance, and because their mines are geologically more labour intensive than other operators.
However, more pressing than cash flow seems to be whether covenants are breached, one or more of which arebased on Total Net Worth. TNW itself has been hard to assess, because of (I'm guessing) fluctuations in and the long-term direction of the Rand and Platinum prices. If they have an asset sale (of as yet undeveloped mines), would it be at fire sale or would a fair price?
Is this a fair assessment? Boards seem to be polarised between "it's going to rocket" vs. "it's going bust". The situation may not be ideal but I'd like to fully understand the immediate vs. mid-short term risks first.
In a strange way, I feel I've been here before with Taylor Wimpey in 2008-9 at 10p. I bailed far too early then. But hey it's not LONMIN.
My final sell was at 72p as per post . I had 3 out 4 positions ( my strategy's maximum) and some was sold at 80p to manage to stay break even . My error was not to have a trailing stop as I was in profit by quite a healthy margin , I sadly made a big error of execution . I felt the pain .
Back in at 65p with 1 position now.
Rand touched 14.3 . Palladium is well over $1000 ( touched 1026 today ) Platinum $937 seems to be improving a little bit every day now.
The impairment is on an asset basis not a cash basis and we have seen them increasing cash levels . So its all to be seen what the asset value will be .
If am wrong am wrong , its part and parcel of trading . As am sure you know .
At the moment RSI is at 33ish getting oversold , without looking at potential support levels my thinking is that if this does not fall beyond a value of 26 on the RSI and does not form a lower low RSI we may possible get a Bullish divergence .( divergence being Higher low on RSI yet price is giving a lower low.)
Previous low with 65.75 reached 26 RSI , now at 65 we have 33.
Risky but if it finds support at 65 or even just below it, we may be at a turning point. Tomorrow's price action gets interesting . Lets see if buyers come back on board.
As for Palladium it had a great day touching 1021 ! But if my EWs count is correct it may correct now doing a ABC . Potentially only to the 990s so still very high levels and good for Lonmin
Platinum good day in the $930s and Rand stuck in the 14.1s usually rallies to 14.22 over night . Pattern that I have noticed of late. Still well above the last quarter 13.17 of the last reported quarter.
Just wish we had that impairment issue sorted . This will matter more than any divergence or other TA issue .
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