(TW-.L) Taylor Wimpey PLC Buy/Sell

ay-up, im going to take this opportunity to share my views as well.

im in the property game and i build-to-let rather than buy-to-let, as well as a few other property investments.

over the last 2 years i have diverted away from residential property and sold 75% of my investments about 6 months before the crisis stated (more by luck as i was planning to move to america) more recently i have invested in commercial property and have snapped up a few shops with long term tennents and 2 HSBC bank let until 2037.

i was at the same allsops auction as podgy, and was surprised to see allsorts of people wanting to invest their hard earned dosh at the right prices, their is an allsop commercial auction coming up with some keenly priced properties, which i also think will be really busy i have my eyes on a few lots.

i have brought 3 de-licenced pubs in the last 6 months to kick start my building developments when the up-swing comes, they are all on large sites and i have picked them up for about 1/3 of what they would have being worth as development properties 18 months ago, there are some real steals out there at the moment, and the planners are being very open to suggestions for site developments.

i also own a few care homes and am having some upgrading done at one of them, the workmen that i have spoken to are saying how much work they have on and that things are slowly picking up.

i have not had a problem geting bank funding (from RBS) and my business manager has being really supportive, to the point of asking if i have enough capital to fund forward investments.

this recession has being good so far, allowing me to pick up properties and investments cheap, the land that i have collected over the last few months will be enough to keep me building for the next few years in what ever form they take.

if anyone is interested in investing in property have a look at commercial its a lot less stressful that residential and easier to manage, eddisons have a boots pharmacy in bradford let on a long lease for £4k+pa with a guide price of £65k+

my rant over and a few of my thoughts, and somehow ive managed to make £200k on shares as well this year, brought the banks when everyone said they were going to go bust, and have recently made a few bob on minerva.

best regards to all
jojo

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That article makes you look closer than we might hope Mr J

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A short rant.
Property is essential and however it plays out short term, we all know everyone has to have somewhere to live. The big problem over the pre 2007, 2-3 years was mass production of flats and off Plan sales, bought by the greedy and get rich quick brigade. These will now have died a death. For one, mortgage companies don't like them any more and it is now to the point that people don't want them anymore, well unless realistically priced.

I would expect flat prices are still 20% lower than 2007. Houses though now around 10% off 2007, with some large variations dependant on where you live. I am south east west boarder. We are not far off 2007, I would say 5-10%.

From auctions I have attended this year, the venues have gone from half empty to standing room only before the kick off. Last one I attended was Allsops in london standing room only at 9.30am, 500+ people at the end of Oct'. I managed to secure 2 properties (flats). Any excess/repos are now being hoovered up and keeping price realistic at auction now as more people invest. By this I mean people who have a few quid in the bank earning them nothing.
You can get buy to let mortgages but 2.5-3.5% fees and min 25-40% deposit. Then the best you get, is base rate +4.49-3.49. Money for old rope for the banks.

You can get a good return for your money with or without a mortgage and the upside is more than the down side. I purchased 2 x 2beds, 76k each conservitive value 105k. They are in the high street in Southbourne, Bournemouth nice 1890 building a short 15-20 min walk to the beach. Rents £140 a week and £130 week. The amount of properties for rent is falling every month. People dont/can't buy so they rent, this is turning the lower rents from earlier this year, upwards.

Building sites in progress may now be a lot less, but this is keeping prices up and believe you me this will increase, and as it does more sites will open and increase in numbers and production. I suspect with a larger number being social housing. This is needed now to fill the demand as the council budgets will still be in place and the land on larger sites, will have been allocated for them as part of the planning deal.

With the likes of T.W keeping control of supply and having a large land bank dotted round the country, they can select sites and areas where demand is greatest, as things improve. Supply and demand. This will go hand in hand with unemployment i suspect. even the unemployed need to live somewhere and the days of b&b are dissapearing.
So i say wimpey is at a good price now, but what i say will not make any difference at all, but i feel better

The markets seem controlled at the moment. On reaserch i have done 43p seems about right, as we are in a lul now until 2010. It seems there is no flat period any more, its either up or down.

Not interested in my spelding or gramur

1st Beer now. ICE COLD MMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmm

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Mrj
WE KNOW that the market for mortgage back secturities (40% of lending in 2007) has completely dried up. Investors arent touching it witha barge pole.

WE KNOW that interest rates can't go below where they are now. They go up or stay low. For nearly three decades rates fell. That is a secular change
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That may change now the lenders are being more cautious in who they lend too and on the valuation of the asset. But that will again take time for the market to trust those securities.

Your second point though I thought about including on my list as the only way they can go is up. But I am not sure the average punter looks beyond the rate offered by their lender and possibly won't take into account that the BoE rate being so low can only push there rate up. The normal mindset is that the rate we accept may go up or down, it may not occur that it can only rise, indeed for things to return to some kind normality the rate must move up 2-3pc I feel. In short I am not sure this point will stop people buying.

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to add

WE KNOW that the market for mortgage back secturities (40% of lending in 2007) has completely dried up. Investors arent touching it witha barge pole.

WE KNOW that interest rates can't go below where they are now. They go up or stay low. For nearly three decades rates fell. That is a secular change.

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Forgetting any heavy duty analysis and the smoke and mirrors what do we as ordinary people know.

Although HMG are bitching about the lack of lending being made available WE KNOW that it can not be allowed to get back to former levels. (thats how we got here 125pc mortgage anyone?.)

WE KNOW that larger deposits are required. In 2007 most ordinary 1st time buyers were merrily planning on just buying a house, maybe at best saving 5pc for a deposit. Those same buyers having to find 15-20pc that seems like a lot extra to save between then and now. (on 120k that is an extra 12-18k)

WE KNOW a lot of people are in negative equity and so are not able to move.

WE KNOW the lenders have problems of their own. They are being extra careful who they lend money to, as they can not afford to take on any more bad debt.

WE KNOW some of the property valuation was, to say the least generous because it didn't matter when prices kept rising. So that lenders now are being more cautious/realistic in the valuations. Which also doesn't help those with negative equity.

WE KNOW there is high un-employment.

All of those affected by any of the above are possible TW customers.
When all of that unwinds, people have saved the extra deposit, people are back to work, banks are less troubled and negative equity is less pressing then I feel the market will pick up. Until then it is just a matter of keeping their head above water.

IMO

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not in london, prime markets are almost there already - look at zoopla.

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Couldn't help replying!

My timeframe for the trough is somewhere between 2012-2014, with a slow and cagey recovery after that.

Getting back to 2007 prices will, in my opinion, in real terms could be over a decade away.

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to TW other than maximising profit.

The issue in the housing market is simply the desire of the public to buy houses and their sentiment in taking that risk relative to the stability of their jobs and income.

When TW gauge that the sentiment is returning they will start to build again and start to sell. At that point the SP will start to move and probably not before.

The housing market is still treading water and despite bullish statements by Persimmon about having sold all 2009 stock its all just hype as it was old projects completed at the moment. New starts are thin on the ground to the point of being zero for all major House Builders and completely zero for small builders.

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140p in 4-5 years is more my feeling welshki.I wouldnt be surprised to see mid 30s again very soon. Its a good long term hold,but its the most exasperating share Ive been in

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nothing personal Mr J, but its obvious what ur reply would be

i was hoping for 120-140p in 24 months, but it seems as though TW is going to be one of the last stocks to recover, flat on up market days and down more than most in a dropping market, feckin frustrating and looking at that bloomberg story, 2014 is too long to hold for me

there is another article on bloomberg saying housing recovery in US to be in 2010.............are we that far behind?!!!!

P.S any lloyds holders here? whos going balls deep into that RI?

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So these people bought their place for £315,000 and 2 years later in the middle of a recession they thought they'd get 11% more?!

So typical.

Another great example of our great nation:
http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/news/Bristol-couple-s-struggle-property-ladder/article-925793-detail/article.html

Sorry all, it's Friday and I need to unwind I think

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Sorry - This isn't likely to cheer up the BB either :-(

Although it confirms the potential of the US arm of TW, and is anyway in contrast to the analyst who got this year increase spot on, who predicts 5% increase next year.



U.K. Housing Market May Not Recover Peak Until 2014

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices will probably fall next year, and it may take until 2014 to return to the levels at the 2007 peak of the country’s biggest housing boom, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Nine of 14 economists and real estate brokers surveyed said they foresee a decline in 2010 after a surprise rebound this year. They predict an average drop of about 1.6 percent, with estimates ranging from a loss of 10 percent to a rise of the same magnitude.

“The market is still overvalued, whichever measure you use,” said Seema Shah, a housing economist at Capital Economics Ltd., a research group in London, who was the most bearish in the survey. “Prices need to fall a further 20 percent to 25 percent to get back their long-term trend.”

A 7 percent gain in average prices since April was driven by a shortage of properties for sale and won’t be sustained, according to Shah. Most survey respondents said they don’t think the rally can last while Britain’s longest recession on record fuels unemployment and makes banks reluctant to lend.

Prices plunged 23 percent from September 2007 to April this year, according to Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax unit, after losses on U.S. subprime mortgages led global credit markets to seize up. They remain at 2005 levels.

For all of 2009, the average home will probably increase about 5 percent in value, to almost 161,000 pounds ($270,000), said Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s chief economist. Martin Ellis, chief economist of Halifax, Britain’s biggest provider of home loans, expects prices to be little changed.

120-Foot Garden

That’s no solace to sellers like Nicola Brookbanks, 37. She and her partner put their one-bedroom apartment in the Ealing district of London on the market almost three months ago so they could buy a house in nearby Acton with more space for their 14- month-old son. They bought the apartment, which has a 120-foot- long (37-meter) garden, for 315,000 pounds in March 2007.

After more than 60 viewings, and cutting the price by 25,000 pounds to 325,000 pounds, Brookbanks and her partner accepted their first offer of 318,000 pounds on Nov. 16. The transaction has yet to close.

“I am pretty surprised it has taken this long to get an offer,” she said.

U.K. residential real estate had almost tripled in value during the decade before the credit crunch. The gains encouraged more Britons to pour borrowed money into homes and more “buy- to-let” investors to acquire property for rental income.

6.2 Times Earnings

At the market’s height, banks were financing loans as large as five times a borrower’s salary. That lifted the average price to a record 6.2 times earnings, compared with the long-term average of 3.7 times, according to Capital Economics. The ratio has since fallen to 5.2.

U.S. house prices, by contrast, are at their most affordable for at least 28 years, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors. The average price of an American home is 2.4 times income, down from the high of almost 3.4 times in 2006.

Even at the peak of the U.K.’s previous housing boom, which ended in 1989, the ratio was only 4.7. Values then took four years to fall 13 percent and didn’t return to pre-crash levels until January 1998, almost nine years later.

“There is a problem with very high house prices, and getting over it is probably a good thing,” said Martin Weale, director of the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research. “I am optimistic that we will move back to a more normal level.”

Out of Work

Claimants for jobless benefits in the U.K. have more than doubled sinc

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sorry I need to be brief but this share has been very voilatile for the past year or so. There is a nice upward trend forming since the last announcement, if we can see off 38p today the trend might continue well into the 40's.... by the end of the year, into the spring who knows but I for one expect to see a rise before Xmas... this is the pattern we have seen in the past.

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although I'd be shocked if it cracks 40p this week
(grumble grumble grumble)

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6-12 months? Feels like years already.
This share just does not make sense. And I'm really p"£$d to see it under 39p AGAIN for no real reason.

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Ive had a look, and current sp is reasonable; if nothing comes of the new drug, they don't really have much to tank down to.
I take your point, if we all waited for the good news to come out, the sp is probably already in orbit by then. Probably worth a punt;the parkinson drug market in terms of cah is huge,and theres not many medications available (which work anyway)

Bought into barc yesterday ,just even again now. Grr

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Yes as an avid watcher of L2 I see this sort of thing happening, but my interpretation is that it's less about MM's these days, and more about smart institutional traders (yes sometimes colluding) to take advantage of the herd mentality - especially where there's low volume.

The motives are simple - they need volume, and they need movement (otherwise its difficult for them to make money), so a tight range with low volume is useless to them.

Trading up and down in channels is perfect for them - low risk of being wrong sided, will trigger lots of stops and limits (which creates the volume and hence commission), and can allows them to buy/sell at the prices they want for a profit on the return journey.

Having said all of that, isn't this exactly what we are trying to do ourselves (the SB and CFD traders amougst us anyway)?

Only typically with less resource, insight or direct market access. The other big difference is that the trade commission / margin is our enemy, where it is often their friend.

If the market lets such traders "walk down" the price to the 30% RSI, then its because the market doesn't sufficiently believe its a big buy op just yet (sadly).

I think Podgy may be right. We might have a bit of a wait for sentiment to pick up, for stocks whose market is so seasonal - Nightmare...

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Get Level 2 now for only £20.00!

So its a case put your money in and take a chance. If/ when they get positive results from clinical trials the price be long gone.

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I use the word short but It's just a word I use for dealers placing lower and lower blocks on the book to force the price down. They then buy larger amounts back, either to sell on a later day or to fill an order. My inlaw is one such dealer. I'm livid with some of the things I hear... And they are the ones getting bonuses...

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