Agreed - tough call at this level.
For me the silver lining is 'who' Vamousse is being sold too. I also hold Alliance and think they are well positioned to steward the brand to it's next phase. As such, I am going to cash in profits on shares brought under 3p (about half my holding) through the tender offer...and reinvest this in Alliance.
The other half (brought well in excess of 3p and already showing a significant loss) I will leave in Tyratech. Any upside would be a plus from here, although I do consider this high risk now with the loss of (ongoing) Vamousse revenues, past the terms of the deal. The Animal Health market I know well and the technology is differentiated...question is how quickly can they get commercial growth in this sector?
If they do manage to drive reasonable sales - and as a pure animal health play - my prediction is that they will be subject to takeover in the future by one of the big players. I'm happy to watch and wait, although this does reflect the loss I already have on this half of the holding!!
Its a tough call Ripley. The tender offer is for up to 57% of the shares in issue at a price of GBP 0.03 per share.
Holders will be able to tender all, some or none of their shares with tenders in excess of basic entitlements of 57% of holdings, only satisfied to the extent that other shareholders tender less than their full basic entitlements. This offer is subject to approval at a special meeting to be held on 27th December 2017.
The sale is of Vamousse only. The cash generated will be used to build the animal businesses. the question for investors is, how long and is it enough to sustain them?
Bruno Jactel is pretty upbeat in this recent interview.
"Vamousse is cash generative and EBITDA positive".
The Animal Health division looks promising.
A big seller is holding the SP down;but for how long.
Interesting and exciting imo.
Looks robust enough on first glance, but lacks the excitement I think is needed to get this one moving upwards:
- Lice market recovered in H2; almost flat for the full year
- Double digit growth of Vamousse sales year-on-year
- Good to see spend controlled, cash on hand projected at $1.7+
- 'Cautious' expectations for revenue growth in 2017 - but still in double digits
As such, I'm holding onto mine for now... even given a large paper loss.
Been bullish here previously but a little underwhelmed by the numbers today. Profit growth is less than I would have expected, particularly given the similar like-for-like expenses for the period. I was hoping we would track closer to breakeven in the H2 2016 period but now feel we will be well short, and am predicting a full year loss of around -$2.5m. This would be behind my expectations and a decline on last year, so will need considerable upside from the Animal Health products in H2 to 'catch-up'.... not sure i can see this happening given the short timeframe. Additionally, cash on hand seems 'light' @$2.1m, given the cash burn of $1.7m in H1 2016, the current level of loss, and no secured external funding. Could result in a further share issue in 2017.
As before, all my predictions, so do your own research. I did top up today, but that was more to average down for the long term (normally a strategy I avoid), based on the USP of the products Tyratech have. I won't be adding further until that loss narrows significantly, or until a larger (prob. animal health) Company sees this as an attractive acquisition, both of which now seem at least 2-3 years away.
Quick view of results and I like what I see. Sales inline with my projections (slightly above what I thought) and costs much reduced in H2 as expected - with the caveat that these will increase going forward to drive new market penetration and product launches. Availability continuing to increase for Vamousse and expansion planned for Europe. Given the healthy margins, should provide a strong cash flow as a foundation for future growth.
Still intrigued by the Animal Health direction at this stage, particularly with a new Chairman who has great, credible experience in this sector. I do also like the 'promise' of diversification that this will provide moving forward. The animal health market is worth $20B+ globally, with positive growth rates, and is pretty defensive in nature - so could be a great strategic move. I believe the Poultry sector is a good place to start as I think it's one of the smaller segments (c10% of the overall market; of which about 40% in the US). Have contacts in this space so will be quizzing them over the coming weeks to understand more about this segment
Will rerun my overall numbers more thoroughly over the next month or so, but on initial glance, still happy to hold here for the long-term after the results. GLA
So..for the record, Vamousse worked really well for us. One treatment, killed everything it should have! Took a few days to completely clear the hair of the dead blitters, but it did clear the problem. My girl is 6 and has very long hair; so dead chuffed with the results. One happy shareholder - just need to the price to move up in 2016 now ;0)
Apologies, typo in that last post. My view of +50% upside is based on my purchase prices which were way above the current Ask price (see previous posts). Needless to say I see today's price as a great entry point, with substantial upside potential for new investors...
Poor share price performance this year but much progress made on the commercial journey for Vamousse and with the recent announcements, more cash in the bank to support 2016 progress. I'm personally showing a (large) loss on these but holding tight - with confidence (my largest holding in the portfolio).
I've re-run the numbers today and still see the potential for +50% upside from here for long term holders based on the H1 numbers. I'm estimating full year sales of around $6.7m (over 90% Vamousse in my model), an overall loss for the year, but getting close to breakeven for H2 when you take operating expenses into account. My assumption here is that much of the Vamousse marketing spend was upfront (web campaign, packaging design, securing listings,merchandising etc.)...although this could be horribly floored
The trigger for re-running the numbers was my daughter, who we discovered had nits last night! A quick trip to Sainsbury's to pick up and try Vamousse followed. I was impressed with the way the product stood out on the shelf, priced £10, and it was easy to apply. The morning after it appears to have worked, but I will reserve judgement for a few days. Overall, a great initial customer experience though which is promising.
Not so sure about the rest of the product range at this stage so have largely discounted these for now. Guardian reviews seem pretty good, albeit with strong feedback on the odour of the product. The Animal Health lines will be interesting to watch, with increasing M&A in this sector following the Novartis/Elanco acquisition and the recent announcement from Merial and BI. This is a sector I know well, and this product could be ripe for divestment or licensing in the future as each large player looks to secure dominance in individual sectors in Animal Health. I think stepping back from Elanco (Novartis partnership) was the right call - given the internal issues of joining the two Companies, Natunex wouldn't have been a priority. There is also the possibility of a smaller player taking this and running with it as a key line. Like I said, one to watch for 2016, particularly with resistance to pesticides becoming a key issues in this sector. Any upside from these products will be a bonus to the main show.
Would be interested in others views and assumptions. Bear in mind I'm not a professional investor so, as always, do your own research Good luck to holders for 2016.
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