Trends and Targets's blog

Trends and Targets for 24/08/2016

SIRIUS MINERALS (LSE:SXX)  We last viewed this during "the lost week of July" when a security issue caused publishing problems (for us) on the Interactive Investor website. The report (link here) was hopefully useful to someone, though our comment of 49p being a distant attraction has proven, once again, our grasp of timeframes is tenuous. To be fair, in most situations, timeframes are an impossible concept but even the most fussy would be surprised at such quick movement from 21.75 to its current closing price of 42.25p and a day high at nearly 52p.

Trends and Targets for 23/08/2016

JUST EAT (LSE:JE.) and BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA (BMPS) We've noticed the usual culprits who preach doom & gloom have moved on from Brexit as their preferred armageddon vehicle and are now tending to circle in the air above Italy, specifically an Italian bank which claims to be the oldest in the known universe. We take issue with this as we've seen the interior decor of some local banks in Argyll. Unusually, this time they've a point as BMPS share price is already trading in a zone where its logical Big Picture bottom has a value prefaced with a minus sign. We've had a flurry of emails asking about BMPS and would guess a few folk are wanting to risk a punt at a potential Near Term bottom on the basis it must enact some sort of emergency bounce.

Trends and Targets for 22/08/2016

FTSE for the week ahead. Last week had an extremely neat downtrend, one which the FTSE managed to better briefly on Friday before finding an excuse to relax. But then it surged upward again and despite breaking briefly below our initial drop target 6844, the situation now is of interest. Essentially, in the event of the market bettering 6866 points, it is impossible for us to write "Below 6940 signals 6816 points next". Instead, above 6866 suggests coming growth toward an initial 6883 points with secondary a pretty useful 6912.

Trends and Targets for 19/08/2016

FTSE for FRIDAY and FIRSTGROUP (FTSE:UKX and LSE:FGP) This week, finally, has provided the sort of week we tend expect for August - ie, pretty boring. However, movements in the closing minutes of Thursday were to prove interesting as the market managed to very slightly move above the weeks downtrend, perhaps signalling some upward froth for Friday. Alas, in after hours clearing, the FTSE managed to find itself closing Thursday at 6869, very slightly below the ruling trend.

Trends and Targets for 18/08/2016

Cobham PLC (LSE:COB) is perhaps worthy of an update. We last viewed the share early in 2015 (link here) and everything has fallen apart. It failed to achieve any upward triggers and has dropped like a wingless brick since. While the price indeed achieved our 282p, if moved below this level repeatedly until the start of this year when it broke our 250p and rather neatly scrubbed any upward cycle. Unusually, we are not using Interactive's chart to illustrate this article as there appears something wrong with the historical data. We know the share was trading at 350p in 2014 but this is not being shown on the chart link - a first for the folk providing Interactive with data!

Trends and Targets for 17/08/2016

DRAX & EDINBURGH INV. (LSE:DRX & LSE:EDIN) The amazing thing about DRAX is the adherence to a ruling BLUE downtrend since 2014. For a ten day period in July, the high of most days bumped against the ruling downtrend, not once exceeding it. This was a truly Olympic class of traders acting in telepathic cooperation to ensure the downtrend remained in force. The other side to this coin is, should the price of this share now better BLUE, logic suggests it shall be permitted to move freely. Currently the BLUE line is at 346.218p but, with the share trading at 309p, it has quite a bit of work to enact before we'd regard it worth paying attention to.

Trends and Targets for 16/08/2016

Jimmy Choo (LSE:CHOO) and the Potato Principle. Earlier this year, we presented a slightly dodgy analogy between the need for patience when investing and the need for patience when planting potatoes. As the picture below proves, just ONE potato has given a SEVEN fold yield and only needed to be forgotten about for 5 months. Just like shares, aside from the reasonable growth... We actually planted around 20 feral potatoes in the garden and it took courage to unearth one - after a visiting deer had eaten the above ground stalks. However, we've proven our investment in a potato paid a pretty reasonable dividend. The question now is, how the heck can Mrs T&T claim her desire to buy a pair of Jimmy Choo's is an investment? This particular topic will never be put to rest BUT we can actually make a bit of an argument about Jimmy Choo share price potentials actually being a real, rather than ridiculous, investment.

Trends and Targets for 15/08/2016

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) + BARCLAYS Finishing last week with a rant about the FTSE (link here) didn't really leave us much ammunition for our Monday - the week ahead - column. Our parameter initial target of 6933 was achieved just after 9.30am (edit: day high was actually 'only' 6931.04) but critically, the initial target was not bettered and we're taking this as a signal for some caution. After all, we'd thought our Big Picture ambition was probably as high as the FTSE would get before some volatility, so we've still an axe to grind and as the week starts with a Monday (grotty 80% of the time) perhaps the weakness from Friday will indeed prove to be a warning.

Trends and Targets for 12/08/2016

FTSE FOR FRIDAY THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Watching Bloomberg & CNN while awaiting the Asian markets opening, levels of irritation increased to boiling point due to presenters "wisely" commenting on the Massacre of The Bears following the Brexit vote. To a black tie and cleavage, they all missed the point that the only bearish attitude since Brexit has come from the media themselves. Literally daily, the markets have enacted an upward curve and very effectively highlighted the utter incompetence of some talking heads in TV studios ignoring evidence in favour of their opinion. But what interests us was a movement against the FTSE in the closing minute of the 11th August.

Trends and Targets for 11/08/2016

LLOYDS BANK (LSE:LLOY)  We last commented in our headline feature against Lloyds nearly three weeks ago. The intervening period has witnessed the share price moving by sod all. It was trading at 56p on the 21st July and on 10th August, it closed the session at 55.43. The intervening period experienced a bandwidth of around 5 pence whereas the FTSE itself has enjoyed growth of 2.5% and a bandwidth of 250 points. As can be guessed, we're frustrated at the shares lack of activity. Even RBS & Barclays are showing early signs of some reasonable activity.

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