Trends and Targets's blog

Trends and Targets for 27/03/2015

National Express (LSE:NEX) , famous for one of the best song lyrics of all time **, is starting to become vaguely interesting for the longer term too. In the event of the price now CLOSING above just 292p, it ticks the final box in an argument pointing at 346p as the next major point of interest. In fact, longer term we can even paint a surprising 410p.

Trends and Targets for 26/03/2015

Jeremy Clarkson leaves Top Gear on the same day Zayn Malik leaves One Direction. Coincidence or  a job swap coming?  We get whimsical when listening to Radio 2 while producing this report and search for things more ridiculous than XEL's price movements... Though news of Clarkson talking to  ITV may be the boost it needs to get to our next upper target.

Trends and Targets for 25/03/2015

IAG - aka BritAirways (LSE:IAG)  has a share price on the verge of ticking a final box. Our software asks that the share CLOSE a session above 615.05p as this allows it to calculate longer term targets of 780p initially with secondary, if bettered, at an amazing 938p. In the event of the movement triggering, the price would require a hard landing below 422p to scupper its growth characteristics.

We always like to pepper our optimism with a doze of real life misery but even if IAG managed below 565p, we'd only be looking at a slowdown to 528p or so. To truly justify a bout of Easter Enders style dramatics, the share would require below BLUE on the chart and visually, this is about as likely as most of that dreadful programs plots.

Trends and Targets for 24/03/2015

GOALS SOCCER CENTRES  (LSE:GOAL)  is showing the classic signs of a glass ceiling. As the chart shows, we've drawn a pink line at 239p as the chart has been experiencing trouble closing above this point since 2008. It's usually quite interesting if a share price manages to shatter its glass ceiling as growth can often be quite swift to an initial target level. In the case of GOAL, this is at a fairly boring looking 262p but the reality is somewhat less dismal. Once it closes above 239p, we will be inclined to view its longer term attraction as coming from around the 380p level.

Trends and Targets for 23/03/2015

We suspect, before rushing to open a short on the FTSE, that it's worth considering the danger of near term movement above 7032 leading to our 7047. The 'problem' with the market is of being viewed as heading to a longer term 7400 or so as it needs slop below 6750 to cancel the immediate upward cycle. It's looking strong.

DJI HOLDINGS  (LSE:DJI)  starts our week of Travel and Leisure Sector shares. It's one we've been wanting to visit for months since the market hijacked the code for the Dow Jones index and allocated it to this share. We've some hope the price is currently at a bottom as, despite the terrible ride it has had since last year, the price cannot afford close below 53p as our ultimate bottom is at a ridiculous looking 16p.  If any strength is present, we always prefer seeing a share bounce just above our drop targets and this is certainly "in the zone". Near term, in the event of it trading above 62p, we are looking for growth to a fairly useless 67p. What will really interest us comes if the 67p thing is bettered as it's easy to imagine stronger growth coming to a longer term 84p.

Trends and Targets for 20/03/2015

A full Friday Futures Freebie is below as none of the potentials are redacted. Hopefully it's a better day than Thursday!

CAIRN ENERGY  (LSE:CNE)  completes our oily week. Similar to many other shares, it experienced a few days in the sun above BLUE earlier this year. And equally similar, the market has forced the price back below the trend. In the case of CAIRN, it seens weakness now below 143p will doubtless take the share price to 110p next. Secondary, if such a point is broken, is at 90p and rather uncomfortably we cannot calculate any number below as all the results have a minus sign in front of them.

Trends and Targets for 19/03/2015

The blatant lie from the bloke giving the Budget speech astounded us. By cancelling a future Fuel Duty rise, apparently we are to be £10 per tank better off later this year. But the reality is, we shall simply not be £10 a tankful worse off. It was like suggesting I am £50 better off due to a mugger not mugging me and helps explains the high esteem in which politicians are held. As this vaguely relates to Oil prices and Oil Share prices, we should mention our worry with crude oil prices. The stuff has stopped going down but it certainly is not going up. Despite Brent appearing to firm up, the price would need better USD70 currently before growth can be expected. Early warning will be movements above 63. US Crude rather oddly also needs better USD70 to give an assumption of growth. Early warning will be trades in excess of USD57.

The bad news is, despite some recovery currently showing, it looks likely US Crude will next head to a floor of USD40 and Brent risks USD 40 too. Which is a bit of a co-incidence. Our hopefully ultimate bottom on Brent has been rejigged upward by $2 to $31


Trends and Targets for 18/03/2015

PREMIER OIL  (LSE:PMO)  When we first drew a line at 87p against PMO, the share was trading above 3 quid and safely above its RED uptrend since 2002.  It was, like our ultimate bottom of 3p, one of these numbers which calculates as possible but in our heart of hearts, will probably prove stupid. However, we're now forced to re-examine our attitude. Currently trading around 140p, in the event of it trading below 120p we will regard it as triggering the last leg downward to 87p.

The funny thing is, hopefully such a target is not actually reached. We always prefer a share to bounce above a drop target as invariably this implies hidden strength. Despite a recent stonking UP day, PMO needs trade above 158p to signal the recent rate of descent has eased. Such a miracle would doubtless prove useful as it permits growth to an initial 198p. Secondary is a longer term 249p, hopefully able to challenge the Light Blue downtrend from 2011 sometime later this year. Only once above this line can we view it as moving from Recovery to Growth.

Trends and Targets for 17/03/2015

At Trends and Targets, all we work with are numbers and experience a gratifying number of targets being met on a regular basis. Our recent commentary against XEL was received with similar enthusiasm to news of a BBC producer feeding salad to Jeremy Clarkson.  Complaining about the messenger doesn't help as the share moved to our initial target level anyway. Then broke it. Hopefully it indeed bounces before our 24p but unless above 30.5p, we shall not be inclined to trust any rise. All the oilies have dire bottom price targets. But importantly the price of crude oil is not yet threatening a move down to US$29 as we suspect such a collapse we be the final drop catalyst against oil shares prices. Who knows, maybe the Govt will indeed opt to stop taxing the stuff so heavily to give the sector a break.

BP OIL  (LSE:BP.)  is always a worthwhile candidate to illustrate how blooming confusing oil sector share prices can be. The current game of chicken being enacted with Brent Crude has failed to interfere with BP quite as nastily as has happened against many other shares but we rather fear any price weakness taking BP Oil below 367 will lead to a devastating 355p. The reason this number is awarded such opprobrium comes from the detail the share price will have indulged in a "lower low" and, from our perspective, becomes viewed as heading to 301p initially with secondary if broken at a longer term visually absurd and hopefully wrong 226p.

Trends and Targets for 16/03/2015

Xcite Energy  (LSE:XEL)  starts our week of looking at random oil sector shares. It's a share present on our master list and to get the big picture thing out of the way immediately, it has an ultimate bottom of somewhere around 5p. We cannot calculate anything below such a point and importantly, if has not yet ticked the final box for a killer drill downward. On the immediate cycle, it has been showing the potential of 27p initially with secondary, if broken, around 24p Given recent movements, it must be viewed as effectively at the 27p level and of course, no upward movement dare be taken seriously unless the share price betters BLUE - currently 31p.

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