Trends and Targets's blog

Final Thoughts about KAZ from Trends and Targets

Just a brief note of thanks to those who've been following our KAZ week on Interactive Investor.

It closed above 145p on Friday 9th which should mean celebration. The next stop is our 160p thing - a target we do not think will be met due to a long term downtrend from 2010. 

Guess what?

Trends and Targets for 9/10/2015

KAZ MINERALS PLC  Day 5 (LSE:KAZ). This turned into quite a stressful share to map. Thankfully, as it's a FTSE, we feel there is no way movements can be "attributed" to our daily commentary. But the pressure of 112p & target met, 122p & target met, and 135p target very nearly met at time of writing (134.1) achieved in successive days was quite freaky.  Next week, we're turning our attention to an AIM share, one which has recently been reacting to both its 5 year and 1 year trend and hopefully is poised on the brink of getting out of trouble. It will be pleasing if it behaves logically as we're looking for 7.4 initially with secondary 11.5p as this effectively doubles the price. Alas, the share really needs achieve 20p before we will raise an eyebrow and think it is really going up and at time of writing, there is insufficient oomph for it to almost quadruple in price. We'll be chuffed if it follows the trend and simply doubles.

Trends and Targets for 8/10/2015

KAZ MINERALS PLC  Day 4 (LSE:KAZ). This 122p level is interesting. We'd presented it as a target simply because it would be the ideal point to power reversal capable of closing the manipulation gaps For a while during the session on the 7th, we watched aghast as it was starting to look like the share was going to ignore us entirely and head to our 145p.

But it closed the session at 122.05p, a hair above target and despite a high of the day at 129p.

So is it going to 145p next or is it going to reverse?

Trends and Targets for 7/10/2015

KAZ MINERALS PLC  Day 3 (LSE:KAZ). We'd dreaded KAZ getting boring by spending the week doing very little. Thankfully it's been behaving with a degree of integrity. It even slightly bettered our 112p target (112.3p) which means we're supposed to believe movement to our next major point of interest 145p is a no-brainer.

Oh, how we wish this was how the markets work!

Trends and Targets for 6/10/2015

KAZ MINERALS PLC  Day 2 (LSE:KAZ). It managed to come a poor second to Glencore, our naughty step share but KAZ still experienced a pretty decent day. Weirdly, GLENCORE was firstly gapped up at the open (from 95 to 111p) , then the share was spiked up by a further 3.5p. Whereas KAZ was only gapped up - from roughly 92 to 95p - then managed the rest of the day under its own steam. Spikes are the bane of our life as they usually indicate an artificial rise (or drop) and generally we expect the damage inflicted to be undone within three sessions or so.

Gaps are a different kettle of fish and we're clueless when it comes to timeframes in undoing the damage they cause. The point behind this ramble is at no time during the trading day did Glencore actually better the artificial high of the opening surge to 114.5p. If they intend reversal to cover the manipulation gap, the only reasonable early warning will be GLEN breaking below 99p.

Trends and Targets for 5/10/2015

KAZ MINERALS PLC  (LSE:KAZ). In the mining sector, we regard Glencore with distrust but KAZ (thank goodness they ditched the rest of the complex name) Minerals is our topic for a boring Monday...

KAZ is one of the shares we cover for clients. If it proves volatile, we'll stick with it as our headline share every day this week. Alternately, if it gets boring, we'll dig up something else. The reason we're interested in KAZ is simple. For what seemed an age, we'd calculated the potential of this share bottoming at 64p. Rather tellingly, it bounced from 65p

Trends and Targets for 2/10/2015

THE FTSE 100 (Day Five). This is a bit embarrassing. When we produce these reports, we give slightly more conservative targets than the 'real' ones which are published privately for clients. Our prediction for Thursday suggested the FTSE could grow to 6170 points. Futures actually achieved 6176, so anyone playing the full trade from 6085 was 85 points ahead. But we're squirming a bit because the 'real' target for our clients was 6185 and the high of the day was nowhere near close enough from our perspective. Thankfully this doesn't happen often.

In addition, the entire market took a stupid pill.

Trends and Targets for 1/10/2015

THE FTSE 100 (Day Four). The FTSE is still trading in a region with a drop potential to the 4900's. But, fairly importantly, it almost has reduced (but not removed) the prospect. The annoying thing for us came from its movement above 6040 on Wednesday. From our viewpoint, this was supposed to trigger growth to 6100 initially.

Trends and Targets for 30/09/2015

THE FTSE 100 (Day Three). There's a couple of strange things about our previous comments on the FTSE. Firstly, if we judge impact by our Twitter feedback, mentioning the market faced a 1,000 point drop provoked a less than stunning 103 Twitter hits. When compared with two photographs from our offices which produced over 900 Twitter hits,  we guess folk are happier viewing a couple of pretty photo's that reading something miserable.

Trends and Targets for 29/09/2015

THE FTSE 100 (all week). We've decided to stick with the FTSE as our headline subject this week, so obviously will refer to the chart below and discuss the AIM market instead! To make the AIM's trend visible when compared against some other major markets, it's quite cheerfully doing its own thing. If we compare its current performance with what happened in 2009, if the AIM All-Share was being treated as harshly as it was in 2009 it would be literally off the chart and disappear somewhere below Stigs feet. This is causing a real puzzle and makes us question what's happening.

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