Trends and Targets's blog

Trends and Targets for 28/08/2015

The Big Picture Day 5... BRENT CRUDE. Thank goodness for the bank holiday weekend. Perfectly timed but dreading Tuesdays open if any negative news breaks Amongst the shares we analyse, we've been giving trigger levels which, if bettered, will convince us the significant recovery is real. Unfortunately far too many shares remain within the Dead Cat zone as, despite Thursday being a stonking 3.6% day on the FTSE, only THREE out of EIGHTY shares managed to pass the level which says we must take the bounce seriously.

The implication of this is, should grotty news now hit, the market is liable to turn into a tragedy. Even the FTSE, despite the good day, only reached 6212 whereas out initial target was 6216. Whilst a 230 point rise cannot be sneezed at, we prefer seeing our initial targets bettered as this implies strength.  Thankfully once the market itself closed, FTSE futures managed to better our 6212 so perhaps we're being more absurdly paranoid than usual.

Trends and Targets for 27/08/2015

Trends and Targets for 26/08/2015

The Big Picture Day 3... The DAX feature. A bunch of headlines in the media suggesting the markets have bounced back have not entirely convinced us everything is happy. To put this into context, the FTSE broke its uptrend from 2009 at 6452 points. It fell to 5766 and has bounced to 6081. It needs rise another 6.1% just to return to the pretty grotty position it was in at point of trend break. We were somewhat bemused on Tuesday seeing index' approach our primary targets but fail to do anything convincing about the secondary. Or in other words, we're still in clenched buttock territory. If the FTSE now trades above 6134, unclenching is perhaps allowed as 6268 is the next point of interest. This would break through the immediate decline trend and hint the world is probably not going to fall off a cliff.  Even above 6113 should allow traders to exhale.

Trends and Targets for 25/08/2015

The Big Picture Contd... A technical issue stopped our stuff appearing on Interactive for a couple of sessions. For the sake of continuity, we've published the missing articles here.  Our report yesterday speculated on the FTSE getting to 5751. We didn't for a minute expect it to reach target the next day. (okay, it bounced from 5766 but blooming close for a movement from 6187) On the basis it didn't meet target due to inherent strengths in the market, we'll need near term moves above 6024 to better our initial target 6045 to make our longer term secondary of 6137 a viable suggestion.

Obviously, with the market making 2-4% moves, the term "longer term" must be regarded a bit elastically.

Delayed publication of Trends and Targets for 24/08/2015

Created 23/08/2015 at 16:46 (Delayed due to technical issue on Sunday evening)


Trends and Targets for 20/08/2015

TEX HOLDINGS PLC. (LSE:TXH) has a circle on the chart.. In 2014, the market decided to move the share from a DOWN zone into a more comfortable position by gapping it above the immediate downtrend which dated back to 2007. Normally this would be a fairly important issue but since the manipulation, it has slowly closed the gap then increased from just 85p to 115p. While currently it seems intent on visiting the immediate uptrend at around 95p, there's something else going on and we propose this as being worth a glance should it now close above just 106p.

An event such as this is something we'll view as triggering long term growth to 143p with secondary a probably distant 196p. Common sense dictates the Light Blue downtrend since the beginning of time (okay, 1988) is bound to create some sort of interference on the way up. But realistically once this share closes in future above 143p, it's going to be hard to restrain growth.

Trends and Targets for 19/08/2015

C H BAILEY PLC. (LSE:BLEY) is presenting a wonderful trading scenario which even makes sense. The share, rather perfectly, has managed to illustrate a fairly volatile trading history without the benefit of any commenta sullying Interactive's chatroom. In fact, when we view other discussion forum, this is a share which no-one is interested in except for the salient fact it is being traded.

So, what's our scenario?

Trends and Targets for 18/08/2015

WEIR GROUP PLC. (LSE:WEIR) isn't cheap. There's often a tendency to refer to a share trading at less than 50% of its value last year as "cheap" in the mistaken  belief it must recover to its prior glories. But oddly enough, WEIR is tending to limp toward a region where we'd hope it will stop going down. At time of writing, it's trading at 1440 and we'll be interested should it reach 1370 anytime soon as a bounce is hoped. If 1370 breaks,  it almost must bounce from 1253p

To get a bit 'nerdy' with numbers, the Big Picture has been suggesting this was going to 1370 since November last year. Strangely, when we view this years movements in isolation, the suggestion is for 1338p making a guest appearance. Before rushing to open a short, please be aware the stop requirement is absurd at 1815p . But if you've been trapped since 2850p, it certainly is on the edge of a zone where a bounce can be hoped.

Trends and Targets for 17/08/2015

HYDRO International PLC. (LSE:HYD) is part of the Industrial Engineering Sector (Posh name, FTSE:NMX2750) and near term, we're not entirely expecting fireworks, Currently at 8145, the sector as a whole is seen as weakening to 7700 which tends not to bode well for constituents. However, the sector has been relaxing in a fairly stage managed process and needs only better 8250 to make a nonsense of our gloomy outlook. It seems the Greek, then the China things have been utilised to slow the markets down during the holiday season. As the UK has the fastest growing economy in the known universe (if we believe politicians)  a managed slowdown makes sense.

We've picked Hydro as our subject, 'cos no-one is bothering to natter about it in Interactive Investor forums.

Syndicate content