Trends and Targets's blog

Trends and Targets for 5/02/2016

Friday FTSE and The NK225 (NIK:N225) Firstly, FTSE currently needs better 6100 to indicate some optimism. Or below 5660 to suggest buying running shoes. By any standards, the market has experienced a crazy week and we're supposed to believe anything now below 5805 will lead to an initial 5770 with secondary at a trend and courage testing 5662 points. The funny thing is, the God of Glass Ceilings decided to paint a line at 5939 during the session on the 4th. The result is, with breakage above, we'd tend anticipate growth to an initial 5980 with secondary a very probable 6045 points.

Trends and Targets for 4/02/2016

RBS then THE ASX200 (ASX:XJO) We choked a bit when reviewing RBS' share price. Reaching 232p during the session, it must be remembered this is 23.2p in old money before they 'faked' the share price with a 10:1 Split to make it look less dire. Guess what, it looks dire again. We are hoping bottom is at 225p as should such a point break, we've got clean air until 117p. Or 11.7p in only money, aka "Hello 2009, we missed you!"  Given our fondness of movement gaps, the share DID have a remaining one at 233.5 from September 2012.

Trends and Targets for 3/02/2016

THE DAX (DBI:DAX) As is our habit, we've painted a Purple FTSE overlay to illustrate how strongly the UK is performing against the weak DAX... Rather amazingly, the Big Picture suggests the DAX is heading to 13,900 in the fullness of time unless it breaks 7,400 currently, the RED line since the lows of 2009. The funny thing is, should 9400 now break, we would view it as heading to an initial 7,800 with secondary a trend breaking 6250!

Thankfully, this market has a drop dead obvious BLUE line

Trends and Targets for 2/02/2016

THE DOW JONES (DOWi:DJI) The leading US indicator continues to make the strongest economy in the known universe (ie, politicians speechwriters within the M25) look utterly pathetic. Just for a giggle as we're trying to be funny this week, we've shown the FTSE as a GREEN overlay against the DJI. Since late 2011, the DOW JONES has made the FTSE look pathetic. Our lesson against the FTSE on Monday dealt with repeated trend breaks and the implications for the market. Similar to the FTSE, the DJI also has three lines and the situation now exists of a break below 15,400 leading to a bottom at 12900 or so. Perhaps 13800 will provoke a bounce on the way down, perhaps not.

Trends and Targets for 1/02/2016

THE FTSE AGAIN (FTSE:UKX) This week we're doing a Big Picture refresh against the major world indices. (FTSE, DOW, DAX, AUS, NK225)Given the behaviour of the markets in the latter part of the last week of January, it feels like the wind has changed, so we need look for key levels to back up such a naive stance. But first, there's a funny story too ridiculous not to make it to print. And it highlights the dangers of assumptions.

Trends and Targets for 29/01/2016

CONDOR GOLD (CNR) Is a share we haven't looked at for ages. It had a theoretical "ultimate bottom" of 15p and when it broke trend back in 2014, the client advised he'd lost interest so we dropped it. Amusingly, it came pretty blooming close to our drop target at the start of this year, blipping down to 16p but thankfully no further. And the bounce has been truly impressive and doesn't look like the market is finished with it. Further movement above 60p looks capable of a visit to 72p next, a point where the visuals suggest some stutters are possible.

Trends and Targets for 28/01/2016

APPLE (AAPL)   Last time we covered Apple, we'd given an initial drop target of 100 with secondary 76p. We're now able to firm up our numbers against this commodity (joke) as it appears the share should bounce around the 91 USD level rather than continue straight down. While the immediate secondary on this cycle is at 83, we'd tend suspect some artificial upward travel first.

To get out of trouble, the product needs better 101 USD as this will signal the immediate rate of descent has eased. And above 118 will suggest that once again it enters a growth cycle to 133 with secondary 147.

Trends and Targets for 27/01/2016

SILVER   We're covering Silver somewhat grudgingly and only from a Big Picture perspective. This is a metal we no longer cover at Trends and Targets due to the level of (being polite here) manual control exerted over the price. There was an infamous occasion where we'd been stalking a potential movement for weeks and it finally got to the point where it had virtually no choice but to move from 29 USD to 40 USD or so.

Trends and Targets for 26/01/2016

BRENT CRUDE (NYMEX:BZ)  We're going to spend this week looking at major commodity prices. Brent remains in a death spiral despite it already hitting (and breaking intraday) our historical 28USD target. Currently the stuff needs better 34.594 USD, simply to escape the immediate ruling downtrend since October last year and recently something has happened to the price which bothers us. Essentially, the product has suffered one of these GaGa things, in this instance Gapped DOWN below a trend then Gapped UP above it.

Trends and Targets for 25/01/2016

THE FTSE (FTSE:UKX)  Sorry to cover our favourite object of ridicule again but judging by email volume, it appears folk like reading about it.  Probably balancing our dislike of writing about it! Friday was pretty amazing as the market performed pretty much exactly as we'd thought. Our speculation of weakness to 5755 before growth turned pretty concise as Futures hit 5760 at 03:40am (close enough for us) and bounced. Our trigger level at 5824 gave slight stutters at 06:30am and then it just kept going up.

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