Trends and Targets's blog

Trends and Targets for 27/06/2016

FTSE for the week. (FTSE:UKX) Though we ignore fundamentals, we suspect something important happened last week...<kidding> Our initial "week" outlook took just a day to enact, our secondary one took 48 hours. And the final one on Thursday evening took around 8 minutes to enact on Friday morning. Hopefully this week makes a little more sense but we doubt it, suspecting instead we shall be updating against the main market on a daily basis. There is something important worthy of comment. Our "Cassandra" drop potential of 5750 points for the FTSE proved incorrect as the market 'only' dropped to 5788 by 08.08am. This tended imply some strength with the FTSE actually ending the week UP at 6139, above the previous weeks close at 6116. Despite FTSE Futures reaching a hysterical 5723 when the London main market actually opened, it looks possible we witnessed a 'fake' drop. This is one of these things we call 'fake' (despite it being real) due to a suspicion the movement was produced to provoke terrors in the wrong direction.

Trends and Targets for 24/06/2016

BRENT, GOLD, and THE FTSE and GBPUSD There's probably one of the scariest thing which sometimes happens with shares and it's summarised by two words. "Factored In" Sometimes, a share will experience a stonking rise prior to important news being released and, despite the content of an RNS, a price will tank. We've been watching the rises during June on the FTSE and wondering if we're about to face a hammering for all the wrong reasons! Of course, this is possibly also due to our continual cautious nature. This is probably the hardest headline piece as we don't have a clue what's going to happen following the result of the Europe Referendum. As mentioned previously, we're not entirely convinced this weeks buoyant market is due to a REMAIN vote pending. It could equally be a LEAVE vote giving optimism on the markets. Alternately, the markets genuinely are as clueless as to the result as everyone else is. We're looking at some key indicators with the intention of providing numbers which will indicate whether each market has "Bottomed" (or "Topped - GOLD")

Trends and Targets for 23/06/2016

BARCLAYS, LLOYDS, AND RBS (LSE:#victims) As the world holds its breath for Fridays result, it has started to appear the markets already have decided on an outcome. We're genuinely not sure whether LEAVE or REMAIN tickles the FTSE. Certainly, every commentator has described the recent rises as due to REMAIN optimism, something which puzzles due to the plethora of opinion polls favouring a LEAVE vote. An acquaintance, who's a pretty reliable track record in building trends from opinion poll results, seems pretty convinced of a small LEAVE majority, Perhaps the market is lively, due to LEAVE optimism! We shall know on Friday. One thing we already know is the markets have been forcing the Banking Sector retail shares upward this week. Of the three, Barclays has managed to better its immediate downtrend since August last year.

Trends and Targets for 22/06/2016

UK Oil & Gas (LSE:UKOG). As this last featured 5 months ago, (link here) we were curious as to how the price had managed. We'd given a trigger level above 3p and an initial target of 3.5p and, it appears, got it wrong. The rise triggered, only to flounder a few days later at 3.35 rather than continue to our 3.5p. Our other ambition needed the price to actually CLOSE above 3p to make a longer term 5.25p viable and this failed to come to fruition as the best closing mid-price attained was 2.85p.

Trends and Targets for 21/06/2016


Ferrari and a look again at FTSE. As the RED team finished in fairly useful positions at 2nd and 4th in Baku (surprisingly, a good GP venue) there is a chance the share price has moved in conjunction with the race result. In fact, we're fairly certain it did but there's a problem. The price of Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) closed the session at 43.46 Mid Price BUT the ruling downtrend (BLUE) demands the share actually close a session above 43.495 currently to signal a true escape from the downtrend and movement into "Not Going Down" territory.

Trends and Targets for 20/06/2016

FTSE FOR REFERENDUM WEEK (FTSE:UKX) At Trends and Targets, we've been banging on about the FTSE showing a potential bottom around 5750. There's something pretty weird going on with market movements. Currently, the BLUE downtrend since the FTSE's highs above 7000 last year is at 5785 points. This BLUE line is declining by around 2 points per day meaning come Friday, we'd be looking at 5775 points - just above the prior downtrend. In other words, despite our software's insistence on 5750, some doubts are available. But to be fair, there's nothing to stop the market producing a brief intraday foray down to 5750 but we'd hate the FTSE to actually CLOSE below BLUE. Such a calamity would be the first step toward 5635, perhaps even 5295 if the market really loses its sense of humour.

Trends and Targets for 17/06/2016

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) As always, please remember our comments here are directed at the FTSE during trading hours. In this period, FTSE Futures obviously mirror the market itself but once London closes at 4:30, any numbers given below tend lose their validity. Something a bit strange happened in the final 30 minutes of Thursday 16th. Somehow or other, the FTSE discovered a reason to surge upward by 60 points by the close. Some genius in the media suggested it was to do with the death of a politician and a hope it would lead to a cancellation of EuroShambles next Thursday. We're not entirely sold on this concept but the movement accomplished something surprising.

Trends and Targets for 16/06/2016


BAE Systems (LSE:BA.) and TESCO (LSE:TSCO) The markets currently are pretty rubbish and we're receiving our fair share of "Should I buy xyz now?" emails. To be completely honest, we're as nervous as heck for several reasons. Firstly, the FTSE itself is still looking perfectly capable of reaching our 5750 and we've no certainty it shall bounce. Secondly, one hell of a lot of shares are trading in seriously dodgy territory - levels where we feel it embarrassing to admit how bad the drop potentials look. Both the Major Miners and the Retail Banks present ample cases in point - the markets had made an upward surge and was now reversed. But for today, we're looking at a couple of other biggies, both of which have recently been marked for positive movements.

BAE, currently trading around 477p is one we view as heading

Trends and Targets for 15/06/2016


THE AIM MARKET (FTSE:AXX) and GULF KEYSTONE (LSE:GKP) The grime scene which is GKP continues to annoy us and doubtless absolutely infuriate many private investors. About the only thing which has remained reliable with Gulf Keystone has been the shares position in each Internet forum - once, it always topped discussions for the right reasons. Now, it always tops discussions for the wrong reasons. We're a little curious about the trend since the start of April as it appears the share price is within days of being forced to react as there's little doubt the nice folks who control price movements have painted such an absurd line.

Trends and Targets for 14/06/2016


FERRARI & COAL OF AFRICA (NYSE:RACE & LSE:CZA)  At first glance, a strange pairing until one reviews how a Ferrari leapt past two Mercedes at the start of the Canadian Grand Prix. It was something akin to leaving a couple of coal lorries behind at the traffic lights, provoking the thought that FINALLY we were about to see if Ferrari race performance can effect Ferrari share price. Unfortunately - or thankfully - one of the coal lorry drivers stopped eating his Yorkie with Louis Hamilton taking first place in Canada.

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