(LLOY) Lloyds Banking Grp

Financial Services Authority could stop sale of Lloyds branches to the Co-op

The sale of hundreds of Lloyds branches hangs in the balance amid concerns it could lead to chaos for customers, according to City sources.

In December Lloyds revealed it had entered into exclusive talks with the Co-op to hive off 632 branches, under strict orders from European bureacrats.

Dubbed Project Verde, it is hoped the disposal of these branches will create a new force on the High Street and weaken the stranglehold of the major High Street lenders.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2098398/Financial-Services-Authority-stop-sale-Lloyds-branches-Co-op.html#ixzz1lq9XHEH1

.... and no doubt some English FA committee of accountants will agree to pay £millions of our football fans' money in "compensation" to the useless, hopeless inarticulate Italian imposter ... just like they did to that other useless, hopeless inarticulate imposter Sven Sony Ericsson a few years back ... still paying that twarrt a hefty pension, I believe

The big buzz in the media these days is usually about the useless, hopeless bankers & their big bonuses etc ... but when is anybody going to investigate and jump on the wastefulness and incompetence of the dodgy Twankers at the FA ? --- the biggest institutional eejits and moneywasters in the UK in modern times, imo ......

... or maybe they are not such eejits after all ... maybe most of their financial ' dealings ' are nowadays executed through 'Rover' and 'Fido' doggy-accounts in Monaco ... ?

Step forward Harry .... show them FA clowns how to make real money ...

What a joke ....

LoL
GJ

Greece bailout, Coalition fail to agree cuts......
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has failed to secure the support of his coalition for a raft of new austerity measures, reports say.

He was meeting officials from three parties to try to secure a deal leading to a fresh bailout package.

The main stumbling block in the crunch talks were proposed cuts to supplementary pensions, reports said.

Mr Papademos was said to be going directly to discuss the problem with EU and IMF officials.

They are representing the so-called "troika" of bailout creditors - the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - who had earlier agreed the draft proposals with the prime minister.

They are thought to include a 20% minimum wage reduction, pension cuts and the sacking of 15,000 public sector workers - and have prompted further mass protests.

According to George Karatzaferis, leader of the far-right Laos party, a coalition member, the bulk of Wednesday's seven-hour meeting was spent discussing the issue of supplementary pensions, which had reportedly been in line for a 15% cut.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16958102

Hi All,
I have been trading with a pot of £4 k for last month . Bought at 24 and 27 p and sold and bought a number of times on small rises . Made £677 so cant complain but patience is not a strength and missed out on rise from 31 to 36 p . If I had waited and held till 35 p or so I would have doubled my profit . Now what to do ? . Wait for a retrace of a few pence if it comes or wait totally until results are announced and see what arises good or bad . Any one else in same boat . As I say patience or lack of it has been my downfall . I had a few horrendous buys in 60 s and 70 s which I need to tough it out and wait for who knows how long . My feeling is to wait until after 24 th and see outcome of results . Any views ?

jd, hands off T.P!

Surprising developments with it being so close to the Euro Championships. FWIW, I hope Harry Rednapp gets it, if only part-time allowing him to also finish the season with Spurs.

However, if Harry's not available, surely Mike has to be our man:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylftUmF-GSw&feature=related

Oh god the taff myster is trying to get this down into the 20's again to snuffle up lots more & change his red to a blue

Taffy

And so the integrity, truth and honesty of our banking system and our HMG is COMPLETELY rotten,corupt and dishonest to the core.?

And these are the same people who serve the poor and the oppressed that gave their all for God and Country.

Have THEY No moral standing or represent ANY value to our society.?

This is bad. Realy bad.

May they face their own He((.

alphonso
For the once trusting Little Old Ladies.

Did you go to Cardiff looking for evidence of the house price collapse you said would happen last year? But came back with a t-shirt and the flu?

there's a long history of welsh emmigration

only this weekend I went to cardiff for the day

AND really enjoyed it

Maybe Taffy is just miserable because he's an unemployed Welshman without any friends who can't afford to buy a house. It's understandable.
----
I think he's just found one in Ireland LOL

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Overseas Homes, Property News|February 8, 2012 11:31 am Ireland’s cheapest house? Two-bed cottage on the market for £6,200
A two-bed cottage in Co Leitrim, Ireland is to be auctioned next month with a reserve price of just €7,500 (£6,200).


Leitrim property for sale for €7,500
The cottage is located 2km outside the south Leitrim village of Carrigallen and features a reception room, two bedrooms, kitchen, dining room and bathroom. The site is 0.3 of an acre.

The property is one of 100 lots to be auctioned in the next Allsop Space auction on March 1. From a UK perspective there ate some serious bargains to be had.

74 of the 100 are residential, including 41 apartments and 33 houses. Nine of the houses are in Dublin, with one four-bedroom, mid-terrace house close to Connolly Station listed with a reserve of €35,000.

The best-known property up for auction is the Sandhouse Hotel in Rossnowlagh, Co Donegal, which has a guide price of €650,000 – a staggering 89% reduction on the price sought for the hotel when it was for sale in 2008.

There’s also a three-bed house in Dingle for sale for €50,000, and a two-bed house in the middle of Galway City for just €75,000.

It will be interesting to see how high the bidding goes!

http://www.planetpropertyblog.co.uk/2012/02/08/irelands-cheapest-house-two-bed-cottage-on-the-market-for-6200/

coming to the uk?

why not?

Maybe Taffy is just miserable because he's an unemployed Welshman without any friends who can't afford to buy a house. It's understandable.

Oi itsagas you calling me a liar ! LoL . I don't know the in's & out's of the world , all i know is that generally speaking i take everything with a pinch of salt .

They may be going to live with friends or going back to their families ..who knows ...but handing in their keys ...it wouldn't surprise me . Also it's not just the rent is it . Council tax , Sky TV (lol) heating ETC to be considered .

It's pressure itsagas ...it's all pressure ..


Oakie

itsagas

This is 100 percent correct I actually did have a family member who had Council help with the rent until they found a new Job

Your local Council will even help out if you own the house they pay the Interest of the Mortgage

Its better than having you been made homeless and knocking on the town hall doors at 8.30 in the morning demardning a roof over your head

regardless, LOL but oakie's comment doesn't stack up, subject to the criteria of housing benefit qualification you will get all or part of your rent paid if you are out of work or on low pay? Handing you keys in? I guess if you are renting in the Hamptons and GS have just made you redundant....

"OT . My brother went into an estate agents yesterday that he knows very well . The agent told him he had never seen so many people returning keys from rented properties because they had lost their jobs & could no longer afford to pay the rent ."

Don't worry, the Daily Mail says house prices went up 0.6% last month.............

Almost as dubious as Friday's US jobs numbers.

''OT . My brother went into an estate agents yesterday that he knows very well . The agent told him he had never seen so many people returning keys from rented properties because they had lost their jobs & could no longer afford to pay the rent . ''

Or buying their own house and making up some bull so they dont have to pay the landlord for any outstanding rent and pay for damaged they caused from the weekends house living party ..lol

:-)

Oakie,

Well done on getting into profit with BARC & much deserved for overall contribution to these BBs. I've no doubt that many here, like I, will only be pleased for you.

My advice is always follow your own counsel. Seriously. Much depends on timeframe & targets.

On hand, BARC highly likely to retrace later as whatever happens with Greece in S/T, many of us can see other PIIGS nations demanding similar write-downs later, leading to massive yield increases, higher borrowing costs, etc & maybe, in finality, at least 2 other nations needing to leave Euro for that currency to stand a decent chance of recovering well. That's likely to reignite contagion fears.

OTOH, BARC was circa £3.80+ in 2009/early-2010 when markets mistakenly believed that the worst of debt crisis was over. When that was exposed as fallacious, the worst falls saw BARC fall alarmingly to sub-134 intraday last Autumn.

Since then markets have seen underlying progress re framework for dealing with future EU debt, + BARC has usually done well leading up to results. Any retrace after results may be less severe than seen previously to reflect that underlying progress & general improvement in sentiment throughout the sector.

Bottom line here: IMO, depends on individual timeframe & targets. L/T, your buy likely to provide decent value. BARC remains a strong independent bank that has been cutting exposure to worst EU debt significantly in last year (about 31% less). But if was seeking profits much sooner, circa mid-240s or higher (if available) might tempt me.

But as I say, best man by far to make that call is you, Oakie. All the best & GL with making the best decision that's right for you!

PS: not around to post as much these days as busy away from desk with other projects. FWIW, looking at stocks away from banks more so these days. May add to TSCO & VOD with IPR in a few days, if that retraces a bit more below 332. Otherwise, only holding BARC short & RBS long (both still underwater).

"Housing benefit?? Or maybe they are an up-market sector?"

Itsagas , good jobs but living in a rough-ish area to save money . On the rock n roll now or back to their families . (or both )



Oakie

" The agent told him he had never seen so many people returning keys from rented properties because they had lost their jobs & could no longer afford to pay the rent . "

Housing benefit?? Or maybe they are an up-market sector?

Oakwood,

Glad it hasn't kept you sweating at night.

Managing exposure and cash flow is the key to survival in this game.

*****************************************************************************************************

Taz if i am not sweating at night holding Lloyds ( the occasionally bad dream - but never sweating ) i certainly won't be sweating holding Barc !

I am unfortunately now a hardened investor ...due to bad decision making ..and bad trades, & of course the historic times we live in ..effecting markets etc. It doesn't make it any easier the circumstances of the loss ...but i would rather be nurturing a loss now with the hope of a recovery than a lose when we finally recovery because i bought at the extreme top .

OT . My brother went into an estate agents yesterday that he knows very well . The agent told him he had never seen so many people returning keys from rented properties because they had lost their jobs & could no longer afford to pay the rent .

I suppose it takes a long time for the undercurrent of bad news / data to surface ...but i thought this was quite worrying news . Tough times ahead methinks .


Oakie

Good advice as ever Tas. I am mired in Tesco as you know and unlike Oakie I will sell that if I get BE for exactly the reasons you gave. ...Sometimes escape really is enough. I guess it depends on the share's background and why it fell and recovered in the first place.

Well done Oakie

See patience is the key to success

Honest 2011 ( tin Hat 2011) was a kick up the back side for me

Fingers crossed the Black Horse will break me back into profit by 2015

We all march together

Oakwood,

Glad it hasn't kept you sweating at night.

Managing exposure and cash flow is the key to survival in this game.

With regards long position, just be aware that the 'buy equity' train is in full swing atm. Almost as much as the 'sell it all fear the bear market' mode was full on in August and October last year.

I tend to be dubious of much more upside at these levels. At least in the short term.

Tas

Tas,

Very well put.That's exactly my thinking re.a spot of bother I got into with Aviva recently.Originally went in at £4 or thereabouts and bought more at £3.43 & £3.12 only to watch it continue to slide all the way to £2.70 or so.

I wasn't happy with the resulting exposure and sold a decent chunk at £3.71 last week.Still in the red,but much more comfortable with the risk now.I still like the share and believe it has value(plus a great divi of course)..

A good lesson learned.As you've said previously,it's all about managing risk.

Thanks Taz . My exposure is not a problem ...so no sleep lost on this trade . Bought on .... 01/08/11 @ £2.25 .

Maybe my naivety but i am always comfortable holding Barc shares . I don't need the money any time soon & although a few hundred pounds profit is there to be taken ..i am just tempted to let this trade ride .

I always felt that Barc is a great bank & to be perfectly honest i would rather have my huge loss position in Barc ...rather than in Lloyds .

Ah well what's done is done .

Cheers Taz...oakie

(Sorry to the other bloggers - readers for the OT )

UK banks are good to go

Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Feb 08 10:38.

RBS is still in its loss making phase (1) which inevitably gives us communication challenges. The losses ironically are a measure of our recovery success…

Maybe UK banks are good to go after all, says Citi — based on a comparison with credit crises of the past. And they add that RBS shares are correctly valued!

Although deleveraging still has a ways to go in the UK, Citi’s Michael Saunders says British bank shares could already be in recovery mode. That’s because, historically… bank stocks typically trough well before the period of deleveraging is over. And the trajectory of UK bank shares suggests they have already hit that trough, he writes:

Based on our sample of four systemic crises — US (1929-1932), Sweden (1989-1993), HK (1997-1998) and Japan (1995-2006) — share prices declined c85% peak-to-trough. Taking into account only the more modern crises (eg excluding US 1929-1932), the average share price decline is 79%. Peak-to-trough (2007-09), the pan-European (SX7P), Euro Area (SX7E), and FTSE bank indices all declined by over 80%. By November 2011, each index was still >70% below the 2007 peak, with the SX7E very close to returning to the March 2009 trough level.

It’s not just the absolute leverage of the banking sector in question, it’s also the debt-to-GDP ratio that matters in this comparison:

The drag from simultaneous deleveraging by both public and private sectors is without precedent in recent decades, and has much further to go, in our view. Exports are benefiting from the low pound, but this boost is expected to be limited by the probable EMU recession. Our UK growth forecasts have been reduced to +0.2% in 2012 and +1.0% in 2013 (from +0.5% and +1.2% before). The UK’s recent credit boom was huge: the private debt/GDP ratio rose by 105% from 1996 to 2008, the biggest rise over recent decades, and well above the average for major boom-bust credit cycles around the world (which on average have seen the private debt/GDP ratio rise by 40-45% over seven years). The UK’s private debt/GDP ratio reached 231% in 4Q08, even exceeding the early 1990s Japan peak (222%).

So, this is the history (click to enlarge, but the two black bars are the UK since March 2009 and Ireland since August 2008):

Citi - UK banks - deleveraging comparison to other credit crises

As you can see from the charts, it’s a somewhat tricky exercise, what with the small sample of crises to choose from, and the range of duration of each crisis and recovery. So, Citi draws a conclusion on the duration from the peak:

Observation of previous financial crises suggests that bank share prices usually trough only 1-2 years after the peak in loans and 3-5 years before the deleveraging process completes. UK bank lending peaked in December 2009.

There’s also a problem when the trajectories of the share price of each country’s banking sector are compared.

Spot the odd one out (click to enlarge):

Citi - historical credit crises - bank share prices and deleveraging trajectories

Yes, Japan. Where share prices began to rise, before sinking again. The Citi strategists write:

Taking this analysis one step further, the key question is whether the UK banks will mirror the performance of the Japanese banks during Japan’s ‘lost decade’, which saw a second bout of selling pressure after an initial bounce, or follow the performance of the US, Swedish and HK banks, respectively, where share prices rallied long before the de-leveraging process completed.

Citi thinks not, because the UK real estate bubble was not as bad as Japan’s; and the policy response has been better in the areas of marking-to-market accounting, bank consolidation, and fiscal stimulus.

Policy intervention from both the BoE (QE) and ECB (3-year LTRO), a bottoming out of house prices, bank consolidation, greater clarity on new regulatory measures, and further progress throu

The first question I'd ask you Oakie, is whether you were comfortable holding those to ~130 or not.

If you were, selling here makes no sense as you barely make it out with a little profit.

On the other hand if the exposure was a little too much to stomach and prevented you from sleeping back when BARC was much lower, then perhaps you could consider lightening the load a little.

A trade/investment that goes down -40% or so and rises back to be in the green is probably a good enough story in itself that you may want to reconsider the 'investment'.

It's a matter of exposure and how comfortable you were through it all first and foremost.

Once you're satisfied with that, you can start thinking about targets for your longs, if you have any left.

Just my humble opinion.

Tas

Hi PJ-Smith , i was just pondering your question . As we know it is very hard to trade in and out , so i am tempted to just hold long term . Just had a quick read of the Barc BB and some excellent TA guys on there. Truth is i am undecided .

Recently i have been concentrating on looking at houses ..a bit of diversification is good for the mind and the soul .

I bought at 230 so maybe Taz could give me a bit of TA advice or JD ? ( i would appreciate it )


Oakie

"09.45 The Greek approval meeting is now scheduled for 1pm GMT, says Skai TV. Bloomberg also says the PM's office has confirmed the meeting will take place at 1pm. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9067891/Debt-crisis-and-Greek-debt-talks-live.html

Great to hear Oakie. Well deserved for the patience. You going to hold the lot or lighten the bet?

(Probably not a good time to ask with Greece deal allegedly imminent)

On my Barc shares




Oakie

The sudden burst of optimism a few weeks ago was very disconcerting!

Just when I thought I had it all clear in my mind that Regardless is an ultra long, I am a mid-long, Tas likes to short, JackDawson swings both ways (!) and Taffy moans... ...you went and spoiled it all.

...Happily normal service is now resumed. :-)

its potentially the biggest fraud in uk/world history

the 1 trillion lending spree almost certainly resulted in backhanders/sweeteners for some

imo its so bad that hmg dare not let the truth come out

no law firm is prepared to act to bring a class action forward out of fear banks will turn on them

Dingbat

When is the FSA and our Government going to come clean and release the HONEST truth and facts about the RBS enquiry and the "all time" disasterous falsehoods associated with the HBoS carve up.?
Have our Treasury Department no teeth.or are they part of the problem in what has developed into a shady and dirty"cover up" situation.

Its time to spill the beans fellas. The crooks have all left the ship.

alphonso
For the once trusting Little Old ladies.

and because of greece and what may be around the corner,i have sold my 50k and banked 6k :-)

GL2A who still hold.

Mee too! well not the same amounts as you cautious! Been in since last October with various averages and held through the painfull month of November!!! Iam sure all will remember well!

Out with a small proffit and importantley cash! will re join when things are a bit steadier, all feels very precarious at the moment good luck all that hold but for me I remember someones posting from last year.
Better to be out wishing you were in than being in wishing you were out.....

The ship be sinking: a portent of economic doom

It is a portent of doom, a warning that a tempest approaches – forces more powerful than the post-credit-crunch squalls are whipping across the global economy.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), often touted as a leading indicator for the health of the global economy, has hit a 25-year low, some 95% lower than levels seen during its 2007 peak before the crisis.

Really it’s just measure of the cost of shipping major commodities by sea based on daily reports by shipbrokers to London’s Baltic Exchange, but, say economists, although it may have become distorted, do not ignore the warning signs.

‘We think it would be wrong to dismiss entirely the warning signals that the sinking of the Baltic index is sending about the underlying demand for commodities and the health of the world economy more generally,’ said Julian Jessop of Capital Economics.

Economists agree that one of the reasons for the apparent distortion in the index is China’s recent New Year’s holiday, which depressed trade in Asia. ‘But if the BDI fails to rebound soon, now that the peak of the holiday season has passed, it may well be telling us something important about the health of the global economy after all,’ says Jessop.

A further reason why the index hasn’t crept higher in line with the world economy since the worst that 2008 brought us is a change in the shipping industry. Dario Perkins of Lombard Street Research said: ‘Supply expansion in the shipping industry has structurally reduced the cost of moving freight by sea – there are now lots more ships with much greater capacity. This was a response to the previous boom and as is typical with investment involving long lags, much of this has come online just at the point where it is no longer needed.’

But other more reliable data point to a slowdown in world trade, Perkins added in a research note, including today’s German industrial production data.

Much of the slowdown is a result of weakness in the world's largest economy – Europe. ‘Given the euro area is likely to remain depressed through 2012, it seems likely global trade will remain subdued,’ Perkins says.

Jessop adds two further reasons not to dismiss the significance of the weakness of the index completely. ‘First, unlike the prices observed in commodity markets, the BDI is not significantly affected by speculation or swings in investor sentiment. Second, unlike conventional economic indicators such as industrial production or the PMIs, it is available daily rather than monthly. The upshot is that, while the BDI needs to be interpreted with care, it may still contain some useful information. We will be watching it carefully in the coming weeks.’

http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/the-ship-be-sinking-a-portent-of-economic-doom/a564483?re=17766&ea=5946&utm_source=BulkEmail_Money_Daily&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Money_Daily&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Money_Daily

I think this cat is well out of the bag already so don't expect additional price movement. Just good to see Auntie Beeb confirm it given her reputation for due diligence on stories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16941929