(PAP) Paddy Power

dont use paddypower for inplay live betting and don't buy shares in this disgraceful company. They've basically just stolen money from me. They offered a price on a live in play football game that according to their live clock had five minutes to go... turns out the clock was wrong.. quite a bit more time was left in the game.. enough for me to lose the bet as a goal was scored after I placed my bet which meant I lost.... they have admitted the error but are refusing to void my bet... how dishonerable can you get... so be careful!!

Paddy Power is a great company, managed by the best there is. Last time I wrote about irrational cycles this share fell as predicted, then, as it always does, flew back up. Now the current price of €42.45 is really predicting the best possible result for the year, so I expect we will again now see some downward pressure (probably down to €35) before we sail up to €45.

Paddy Powers on
Created: 31 August 2011 Written by: Julian Hofmann
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Companies/ByEvent/Results/Analysis/article/20110831/9d613362-d3c4-11e0-9ac6-00144f2af8e8/Paddy-Powers-on.jsp


The ability to harness new technology has been the major theme for all bookmakers this year. Mobile betting has grown hugely as smart phone technology has improved, but few players have made better use of this new opportunity than Ireland-based bookmaker, Paddy Power, whose online revenues now make up 82 per cent of the group's operating profits.
Online profits were boosted by favourable football results, but gross win was still 28 per cent higher at €143m, which drove operating profit up 25 per cent to €45.3m. A series of marketing campaigns and refundable bet offers helped boost the number of active customers using the online service by 48 per cent to 704,000.
However, the downturn has affected bookmakers' retail operations and Paddy Power's bricks-and-mortar betting shops have been affected by the economic situation in Ireland, as well as a punter's Cheltenham festival. Even though Paddy Power shops are more profitable in Ireland than their rivals, retail income there fell 8 per cent, causing a 44 per cent slump in operating profits from €9m to €5.1m. The UK retail operation made up part of the shortfall, helped by shop openings, and reported operating profits rose €1.7m to €4.7m. Finance director Jack Massey said the company would continue with its rollout of UK shops, but also noted the progress that rivals such as William Hill have made in improving their online offering.
Broker Investec forecasts full-year EPS of 180¢ (169¢ in 2010), rising to 200¢ in 2012.
PADDY POWER (PAP)
ORD PRICE: 3,521¢ MARKET VALUE: € 1.71bn
TOUCH: 3,521-3,548¢ 12-MONTH HIGH: 3,850¢ LOW: 2,434¢
DIVIDEND YIELD: 2.27% PE RATIO: 18
NET ASSET VALUE: 346¢* NET CASH: €91m
Half-year to 30 Jun Turnover (€m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (¢) Dividend per share (¢)
2010 205 52.5 92.6 25.0
2011 242 56.7 99.9 30.0
% change +18 +8 +8 +20
*Includes intangible assets of €129m, or 266¢ a share
IC View:
Paddy Power is a core holding, but a 2012 forward PE ratio of 18 suggests there are other better value shares in the leisure sector. Fairly priced.

Paddy Power is without doubt the most innovative of all the bookmakers and the one who has consistently achieved growth. I have no doubt that with their excellent management team, PP will continue to outperform their rivals. Historically though, their share price has suffered, for no rational reason, significant downward spirals before climbing back to where it should be. From a high of €37.50 a few days ago the share price has fallen back steadily to €34.90 as I write. We may be in another downward spiral, so this might be the time to sell. Obviously it is impossible to know where the bottom is but in the past the share price has fallen back €10, before gaining even more. If only rational people played the stock market!