(RKH) Rockhopper Exploration

Completely different scenario; take over / farm out. One is straight forward, the other highly complex. Why on earth would you think something is wrong? They always said Q2, it's May, just be patient, please! That said if you think something is wrong (do elaborate?), just sell & move on.

Nervewreck - correct. Open forum with an II, not exactly inside info is it. As & when I get the broker note I'll post it if I remember.

...it's all over but the tears for this Argie government. When you have to start lying about the data to make things look better...

30% inflation this year... ouch.
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By Shane Romig
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina reported an April inflation rate of 0.8% on the month, nearly two-thirds lower than the pace private economists say prices are actually rising.

April's consumer price index was up 9.8% on the year, the national statistics agency Indec reported Friday.

On Thursday, opposition congressmen released their monthly survey of inflation forecasts provided by anonymous private-sector research firms, which stood in sharp contrast to the official figures.

Consumer prices rose 2.2% on the month in April, and were up 23.5% on the year, according to the average estimate of more than 10 contributors.

The opposition congressman began releasing the consolidated inflation report last year after the government prosecuted and slapped hefty fines on a number of local economists for producing what it labeled as misleading inflation reports.

Indec's economic data have been suspect ever since a staff shake-up at the agency in early 2007 saw long-serving civil servants replaced by political appointees. The government stands by its figures, but most independent economists accuse the government of doctoring the books to smooth over rampant inflation.

Meanwhile, consumers are counting on another year of surging prices. According to a closely watched survey published in April by Torcuato Di Tella University, residents are expecting prices to rise 30% over the next 12 months.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Argentina's inflation in 2012 is likely to clock in at 28%, topping the 23% price gain seen in 2011.

"We expect inflation to continue accelerating as fiscal spending grows strongly and the parallel exchange rate weakens," Merrill Lynch analyst Marcos Buscaglia wrote in a report Friday.

In recent months, the government has put tight restrictions on dollar purchases by local residents worried about an economic slowdown and the value of the peso.

That has stoked a parallel market where individuals desperate for dollars, but unable to get approval to buy them at a bank or exchange house, have turned to the black market where they are paying more than 5 pesos for a U.S. dollar. That compares with Thursday's close of ARS4.439 per dollar on the formal wholesale foreign-exchange market.

According to Deutsche Bank, loose monetary policy in tandem with tight import controls are stoking the steep price gains. "This is likely to continue as the government has seriously weakened all the institutional set-up to control inflation. It will take a very weak economy for inflation to start moderating," Deutsche Bank said in a report Friday.

There are signs that just such a slowdown may be in the cards.

The economy expanded by 8.9% last year, capping a decade of blockbuster growth since the country's economic meltdown and default in 2002. However, the central bank is forecasting gross domestic product growth of 6% this year. Many economists say that is very optimistic.

Banking group Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL, GGAL.BA) is forecasting GDP growth of 2.5% to 3% this year, down from 6.5% to 7% in 2011. Galicia's figures are lower than the government's as they are based on private estimates of inflation.

"There are clear signs of a deceleration," Galicia's head of investor relations, Pablo Firvida, said in a conference call with analysts Friday.

-By Shane Romig, Dow Jones Newswires; 54-11-4103-6738; shane.romig@dowjones.com

--Alberto Messer and Taos Turner contributed to this article.

Desire petroleum is why Rockhopper and the whole Falklands is here.

Phipps opened this as he opened the North sea and the companies are pretty merged.

however DES' sp dropped after Goldman pummelled it. Although they raised their sp to 49p (now 23p) and I'm back in after it's weird low. Mkt correction should have DESt over 30p and probably over 40p in a week or two.

Falklands will develop their own infrastructure and if Argentina want to ignore international law no-one including spain will trade with them and they will be like Greece.
My guess is Argentina wont respond and we'll have to structure our own facilities.

Des is waiting for high oil and confirmation of further assets due anytime now

below are the reported trades after the UT at 1635, straight from the LSE

so two questions

1) what do you notice about the bid/ask at the UT and every trade reported after the UT (hint, they are the same)
2) how do you think that the bid/ask being locked at the UT level affects the reporting of buys vs sells to silly 3rd party websites?

has that finally put this ridiculous conversation to bed?


price volume bid ask
274.75 107682 UT 274.25 274.75
269.265 100000 O 274.25 274.75
272.309 23400 O C Y 274.25 274.75
271.178 326614 O C 274.25 274.75
271.377 15300 O C 274.25 274.75
270.945 8540 O C 274.25 274.75
270.945 3009 O C 274.25 274.75
270.945 2577 O C 274.25 274.75
269.785 2468 O C 274.25 274.75
269.785 2174 O C 274.25 274.75
270.1 50000 O 274.25 274.75

Like I said L2 etc is available to some of us and not really sure what your thinking is.....Hmm
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he hasn't the first clue what he is looking at, for what after hours reported trades mean, he also never posts what time those trades were actually exectuted and what the bid/ask was at the time

they could be days old

he's annoyed because he bought "sheeiteee loads" of BOR on some baseless BB ramping at 98p and lost almost half his money, he is now locked into a one shot wild cat well or bust scenario, rather then a company with recoverable reserves booked ... blokes a total mooooopett

So apart from the fact of after close sells what is your opinion or reason for this info. Its common knowledge there were sells. I' ll be buying more if it is a respectable drop. After all the oil is there and it will be sold sooner or later.
It would be interesting to know your position with Rockhopper. You've been correct in your 'drip drip dripping' away scenario but is your sole intention to inform for the sake of genuine info ........or is it to destablize this bb by continualy bringing to our attention the 'drip drip' thing deliberately? Like I said L2 etc is available to some of us and not really sure what your thinking is.....Hmm

Dominion were taken out by Ophir and the whole process from start to finish was 2-3 months. We have had 5 months already of 'negotiations' I would suggest something is wrong.

At last. Thanks Dezza, someone who at least concedes that I am entitled to my different point of view.

I am very well aware that it doesn't sit well with many but sometimes that is how it is.

Nevertheless I can hold hand on heart and say I haven't sold a single share in nearly 2 years.

My only crime is wanting RKH to succeed too much.

I do find this extraordinary. Five months on and an interested party has STILL to get around to access to the data room...? (Five MONTHS, not weeks...) Just how pharking interested a party can that be, for the love of Christ...?

I'm rather hoping you're wrong on this, flash31. How confident are you in this source? Or is there any more detail you can safely give...?
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DV, if Sam said it in a public forum, no source would be at risk from disclosing it here.

Pond1. Many thanks for tax comments. PP

If you check there were lots of sell trades posted between 4.30pm and 5.15pm
Sellers were below 270p.

on BBC just now. I could not believe my ears.
He said they want the bailout money and something like a five year pause for paying the debts back. So they want to pay no money back at all for about 5 years, get all the bailout money "then we will sort something out". When asked what might happen if the bailout money is stopped he simply said "no, they won't do that".
I'm not sure what's more alarming. What he said or the fact that about a fifth of the population back that party.
If they seriously think the other Eurozone countries are going to give them the next tranches of bailout money and wait five years before they get any money back (with Greece's track record) they must be stark raving mad. It is nothing short of TOTAL INSANITY IMHO.
All IMHO.

Hi Rifter101,

Your post re sale of Sealion, has always been my preferred choice of options, for the reasons you have stated, IE funding and cash for a possible special dividend.

Patient Penguin,

If you are selling a share and intend to buy it back later you need to wait at least 30 days between sale and re-purchase, otherwise the first sale would be ignored for CGT purposes, IE on the second sale any profit would be calculated from the initial buy to sale price, (hope that makes sense).
This 30 day issue was to block the Bed and Breakfast ploy! (appreciate you probably know that).
If you have a partner, they can buy them back whenever.
That is why I have an account in my wifes name!

Regards Pond.

I do find this extraordinary. Five months on and an interested party has STILL to get around to access to the data room...? (Five MONTHS, not weeks...) Just how pharking interested a party can that be, for the love of Christ...?

I'm rather hoping you're wrong on this, flash31. How confident are you in this source? Or is there any more detail you can safely give...?

Please can someone explain why an interested party would be still to enter the Data Room?

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Been busy sorting out the purchase of Des first !!!!!! KI

So with minimum of 300mmbls in sealion, and at ABSOLUTE minimum of $5 per barrel of oil in the ground means a sale price of sea lion of about 1.5billion, that is worst case scenario for the sale of sea lion. With our existing assets, and acreage, and this 1.5bill could value RKH at potentially 2billio dollars, a share price of about £7 on these low low figures

Can anyone help? I was thinking of selling some loss making shares of other companies and then buying them back later. That way I will have some losses to offset against probable gains on RKH and end up paying less CGT when my trading shares are sold later this year.

This may be a useful strategy for other BB members as well. Does it make sense? Do I need to sell and buy back 30 days later or is a shorter gap possible?

Incidentally the Sunday Times money letter page had a letter from someone who wanted financial advice as they were expecting to profit from a falklands oil company. Was it anyone on this board? Garbled??

should have shorted facebook!!!

Please can someone explain why an interested party would be still to enter the Data Room?

Sorry to say this but you are asking for a lorra flak from all quarters. You know that your argument about the BoD is falling on deaf ears...the BoD's ears in particular.
I'm sure you're decenct enough person but you are winding up folks over not a lot....Point is, is it worth it?
All relavent P of V are welcome but this one of yours has been banging on for a while now and you made your point.

A sale of sealion might well be the most stable thing the company could do. Let face it, it would put the onus will then be on the purchaser of sealion to develop infrastructure that we could tag onto if and when we discover more oil. In the mean time the company would be fully funded and possibly could pay a one of dividend.

Cyber Boy,

What would you like them to tell you exactly? They are in negotiations, they con't tell you anything as they are confidential! ffs!

BoLt

am hoping that last week was the shock all the greek politicians needed, andpopulation too. Hopefully now there is a sensible pro euro coalition and they get voted in. That wld set the market right I think. Especially if Spain can hang on, and ecb buy spanish debt at auction.

Contact in the city. No links/docs although I have no doubt broker notes will follow in due course. Just a routine question/answer session that CEO's/ FD's do daily to the ii's.

Dearie dearie me TL1 we are upset aren't we ?

In my haste to respond I inadvertently mention Liza as opposed to Johnson.

Apart from the step-out Drill the campaign has gone well ... So far. But we are now in a different phase of bringing thi to market and the amount of confidence that the market has in the BODs ability to manage these negotionations, is in question.

All I am saying is I SEE no evidence otherwise

Who is going to accuse them of being out of their depth other than yourself and other "investors" who don't have a clue about the Oil industry or stock market rules.

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a) Out of their Depth ? If an 'investor' thinks the Board are out of their depth then surely that investor wouldn't invest ? Someone who thinks the people leading the company are out of their depth but still invests is surely out of his mind ?

b) Out of their Depth ? Struck on first well, was that really just down to pure luck ? This from a company that had publicly declared Shell drilled in the wrong place and hence why they formed the company and took on the license, it would suggest they were rright, they proved their point and made damn sure they did so with the first well

Raised funds to have 10 well program of appraisal that also managed to do some exploration as well, additional 3D seismic (not cheap) and enough money to complete FEED... out of their depth ???

Has twatface actually bothered to read the CPR and not just look at the pretty pics, of particular note I think in relation to this is the authors commensta about what a throughly professional job has been done and that they have surrounded themselves with industry experts.

Out of their Depth - have you ever once bothered to look up their backgrounds, of relevance here is PJ's background and current directorships

Talk aboutidiots !! he's getting worse nurse !

Flash this is news to me where did you get it from?

Thanks

Grewber

Any deal is confidential till signed.

Is 5 months not long enough?

Meetings/presentation? Must have missed this- where was this? Do you have a link by any chance?

Come on everyone relax. We all know as per Sams meeting/presentation at CS last week theres still one more interested party yet to access the data room then once all offers in, he expects a 6-week decision process. He feels confident all will be concluded by the "end of the summer". Any updates before then? imo i doubt it, no reason to, unless of course a hostile takeover is launched in which he's duty bound to inform the market.

The weathers improving, the euros are nearly here, I suggest you all switch off for a mth or so and enjoy yourselves. See where we are end of July.

Gla

In the current finansial climate, my worry is that any SP rise on the back of news of a farm in would get sold into, so that when we get updates on expected first oil 3-4 years down thw road, market will react with the same short term view we have seen time and again. Investors want instant reward or will rather sit on the sideline with all the uncertainty and general doomsday feeling of today. So I am reluctantly hoping for a scenario as follow. 
Sell all of sealion for cash, while keeping ownership of remaining acreage and negotiate an off-take agreement with the buyer for future appraised discoveries at a fixed price relative to the price of oil. This way shareholder could get instant rewards in the form of special dividends and the cash from sealion would keep us drilling until NFB looks like a swiss cheese. Future discoveries (of which I feel certain there will be) would create immideate value to rkh if and when we have another appraised -ready-to-sell discovery (Casper anyone?)
Just my thoughts- it may not be the way to reach our highest potential but in my view it may save us long suffering shareholders a couple of years additional agony and misery. At this rate, I will be old, fat and bald before this finally pays off, and by then i won't need the money...
Give me half my reward, but give it to me now...!!!!!!

Battle weary but still holding....

Daikihaku 

Sent from my iPhone

Short and to the point I would say, sorry not a champion waffler like yourself.

Volumetrics contained in the CPR and confirmed as per industry standards but as we know you don't actually read things.

What seismics that have not been reported.

How can they have progress on new projects until they have the finance ie after the farm in?

Liz is DESs drill, a sarcastic comment here is soooooooooo tempting but I know how sensitive you are.

Who is going to accuse them of being out of their depth other than yourself and other "investors" who don't have a clue about the Oil industry or stock market rules.

And as each new poster comes on to ask the same question without any actually idea of what they want I will probably ask them the same questions I've asked especially given they never seem to want to actually answer, except you have at least tried this time to give you your due.

Looking for a 275.5 or higher finish. KI.

Risk back on stm?

I think it's way too early to say for sure but if we can get through May and June barring any disasters it'll most certainly look that way.

Good luck and ATB.

Kam

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Kam,

Risk definitely not back on and in fact shwing no signs of easing.

Thats why I started with just 1/3 position

stm

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Cheers stm, I'm inclined to think the same.... let's see how things pan out. Wouldn't suprise me one bit though to see the DAX hit the 6360s this evening.

GL with RKH, RMP and with the rest of your trades.

Kam

need most (apart from the Greeks to understand their situation rather than stay in dream land) is the price to go back above $120. It was down to $107 a few days ago. The ban on buying Iranian crude starts July I think. That could be the key.

All IMHO.
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Hmm,
Actually what we need most is farm in or takeover news. Sorry!

All IMHO.

Risk back on stm?

I think it's way too early to say for sure but if we can get through May and June barring any disasters it'll most certainly look that way.

Good luck and ATB.

Kam

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Kam,

Risk definitely not back on and in fact shwing no signs of easing.

Thats why I started with just 1/3 position

stm

need most (apart from the Greeks to understand their situation rather than stay in dream land) is the price to go back above $120. It was down to $107 a few days ago. The ban on buying Iranian crude starts July I think. That could be the key.

All IMHO.

Pb999 calling someone else a snapper

I took a while to take exception to your drivel to be fair DD.

I replied to a post, how is that all over them like a rash? Did you actually read his post? I still would just like an answer to the question of what you and cyber and others would actually like put out that is legal and of any substance.
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pb999 - you won't get one, he keeps asking for one and myself and others have asked what it is he wants to see that would be any use, legal or even wise.... no answer, just constant moaning.... this has been going on for months now, he's been answered so many times by different people, then eventually comes the stupid posts, the paranoid posts, the accusations etc.....I gave up, he's not worth the effort, put him on ignore.

As each new poster appears and ask similar questions, your response is always shrort and aggressive. Information flow from RKH has ceased since Jan except for an RNS that was arguably disappointing but then my guess is that Sam didn't mind too much as it gives greater scope for 'growth' whilst hiding behind the impartiality of a the CPR.

What about a volumetrics upgrade from the BOD ?
What about a seismic update ?
How about progress on new prospects ?
Any information on Liz ?

There are a lot more subjects that could be considered without breaching FSA guidelines and could be done via the website as opposed to an RNS. I've posted these before but you choose to ignore.

IMHO the BOD are in danger of being accused of being out of their depth.

Risk back on stm?

I think it's way too early to say for sure but if we can get through May and June barring any disasters it'll most certainly look that way.

Good luck and ATB.

Kam