They wouldn't be bringing forward the production if they weren't confident that all milestones and delivery was on track, might even be ahead. This surely is moving from a speculative buy to a Strong Buy. Capacity to produce 8 units per annum and orders coming in. We just need the finished unit signed off and up and running. Everything seems in place. For a great 2017.
I do not have the 2012 information to hand but I would be interested to know how many warrants were issued to this company PI-Capital LLC in 2012. Hopefully this is their total holding.
The financing arranged in late May with Metric Capital for the installation in Harley Street appears on much better terms with dilution set to occur and prices way ahead of today's level.
Well, there you go.
Nothing substantial for the rise, just MMs milking the PIs once again.
Walk up the price 10% on nothing, for the Co. to exercise the warrants at a premium, then bring the price straight back down again.
Welcome to the AIM casino.
Big movement over the past few days. Testing must be going well. I'd expect an update soon, so this buying activity might be the precursor. I'm sure the management will be getting daily reports and tracking against a plan. So things could well be going great, otherwise why would the board be buying?
Interesting post but I don't know Bearcast and their historical accuracy in forecasting. My view is this company is either very cheap if they manage to put their proton accelerator together on time without mishap, or way overvalued if there are significant production problems. At this stage it appears all is on schedule. Not so worried about share consolidation which in my experience has been positive but perhaps more concerned about the dilutive effects of future fund raisings . Overall I think this share provides an interesting reward/risk balance and to use the old cliché ---better to travel than arrive.
Took this from Research tree, it's from Beaufort this morn...
Advanced Oncotherapy has made a significant progress in the FY2015, keeping its promises and delivered its development milestones to the timeline. In February 2016, AVO announced industrialisation agreement with Thales for LIGHT system, and further strengthened its financing through securing a £24m vendor financing agreement with Metric Capital, a pan- European private capital fund manager, to fully fund the installation of the Groups first LIGHT machine in Harley Street. This is important news for AVO as it demonstrated not only a senior institutional lender has taken a very close look at the Group and concluded that LIGHT is viable and that its expect its first installation in Harley Street to rapidly become capable of generating strong cashflow, but also that AVO is both sufficiently confident and advanced in its planning to establish a general provision of vendor financing for its prospective international customers. In order to meet its target for the first commercial sales of LIGHT in 2017, AVOs priorities will be to ensure the components of the LIGHT machine is compliant with the associated regulatory requirements, initial installation into the UK and to pursue commercial roll-out of the technology through existing and new partners. The Group continued to strengthen its team by appointing highly experienced senior management and shuffled the role internally to build a more commercially focussed business. As has been explained in numerous research documents, Beauforts commercial scenario for LIGHT is that the cost, safely, operational and size advantages its brings to the world of proton therapy, will effectively render first generation systems all but obsolete; its development will also has potential to expand the international market for such systems from some US$2.5bn annually right now, to a figure potentially ten-times as large as LIGHT becomes the obvious successor to the similarly-priced but now relatively antiquated X-ray radiation systems that have a global installed base in excess of 20,000 units. In this respect, LIGHT uniquely faces a giant and accelerating global opportunity
31st May on share prophets website... not positive, TW describes as a stonking sell given cashburn, conditional funding which probably means AVO needs to raise £30m+ in funding and inflated current market cap. Inclined to agree with that assessment even given potential and progress to date.
Given proposed 25:1 consolidation plans (AGM vote) I've decided to bail at a small loss as I think large placing likely and the value of shares held are likely to diminish on consolidation ~ that is what usually happens when non-cash generative companies consolidate.
All IMHO of course, I've made the right decision for my own position.
AVO is attempting to break above resistance at 8p and create a new price high for 2016
RSI is at its highest so far in 2016
Looking positive providing it can stay above 8p for 2-3 closes including end of week today.
Volume well up again today
So there's the news, pretty good news, we just need an update on how testing is going and things are starting go from a speculative buy to a sound buy, at the moment it's still a good spec buy, but things all going in the right direction.
According to their high-level plan we have 3 major milestones in March 2016:
Delivery of the supporting Proton Source
After all this delivery it's all about integrating the whole lot and testing for teh rest of the year. So this is were it all get's exciting or we get delays. Hopefully all will go to plan and we are ready for regulatory approval this time next year.
If it does then We would certainly be looking at a 10 fold increase in the SP as orders come flying in.
Some regular Director buys just before Christmas has got people interested.
Although 2017 is a way off, they remain on track with a fantastic product that will get many people more and more interested.
A good place to have your money as we move into 2016 !
I went to bed last night thinking OMG I should have said DYOR.
My conclusion is speculative given the incomplete information we have. It needs to be validated. However this approach could accelerate the take up of proton beam therapy at the expense of
I doubt if many oncology centres who do not have a cyclotron already would be able to afford or justify a conventional cyclotron. Cheap and easy to install particle accelerators are the only way most oncology centres will be able to provide proton beam therapy as replacement for conventional radiotherapy IMO.
All this has to be good for patients and is another medical game changer several of which I have been privileged to be involved in during my career.
Thank you for your informative and helpful resume.
When I read of Karl Sikora's connection with PP I feared that AVO had been outflanked. However reading "Do I think they are a threat to AVO. Not unless they have a cheap novel means of producing protons." We can sleep a little more soundly and leave you to enjoy your holiday !
As an investor in both Woodford's Patient Capital fund and AVO I too was curious about it. I am on holiday with my family in Spain but I have been researching PP on and off for the last three days since they went home.
The following is a simplistic summary of what I think are the salient facts and my speculative conclusion.
To deliver proton beam therapy the following are essential: 1 source of protons, which as of today means either a cyclotron or a linear accelerator, conventional versions of these are very very expensive. As far as I am aware (see my previous posts on this subject) no one has got a low cost means of producing them in production other than AVO.
Also essential is 2, a means of delivering these protons to the target tumour exploiting the Bragg peak (look up on Wikipedia if you do not know what it is).
AVO are well on the way to manufacturing this and have made more progress since their presentation at the RSM late last year see various RNSs.
My research tells me PP are in the process of setting up proton beam therapy centres in a few UK large medical centres in the UK and have a contract to do so in China.
In spite of all the hype they are silent on how their system produces protons
My research led me to the IBA website. IBA has patents on a gantry and add ons which make a proton beam therapy room cheaper to install and easier to use. It is called Proteus. It makes no mention of a novel system to produce protons more easily and cheaply than extant systems.
Why? Perhaps it is because it can be connected to existing cyclotrons (and linear accelerators).
I will not patronise you all by quoting Sherlock Holmes. However my theory is that the proposed sites already have a means of proton production, probably cyclotrons, and are involved in PET/PETCT scanning.
I have not had time to validate this and it is 15 years psince I retired from Medicine.
I have met Karl Sekora, he and his associates are very able blue sky scientists.
Hope this helps.
Do I think they are a threat to AVO. Not unless they have a cheap novel means of producing protons. The interesting issue is who will have the best gantry. AVO also have a lot of blue sky scientists.
If anyone has confounding facts please post.
I am having difficulty submitting this apologies in advance if I make multiple submissions. I am not typing it all out again
Radiotherapy and immunotherapy are two very different treatment modalities. Chemotherapy is another important modality. Depending on the tumour and/or its stage, one or more of these may be used. In many cases these are deployed after surgery.
If you read the RNS carefully you will note the warrants were part of the consideration paid for the purchase of ADAM technology. This is the novel technology which is in my view a game changer in the delivery of radiotherapy and specifically proton beam therapy. As I am a retired radiologist/medical director involved for much of my medical career in radiology equipment procurement, both diagnostic and therapeutic I have researched the subject and the company exhaustively. Please see my previous posts in which I have summarised the science clinical issues, and potential competitors. In my view this company will either be successful as a stand alone manufacturer or be bought by one of the big guys e.g Varian Siemens or one of the Japanese companies.
You need to understand that in this field design manufacture testing and installation take a lot of time and are very expensive. This company is making good progress and seems to be meeting all its deadlines. It has also been able to forge relationships with companies providing add on technology to make a clinical unit.
Its adoption on a global scale will probably take 5 to 10 years.
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