Sometimes things can be misread an email or not as well written. The AIM comment is mainly a reflection of the behaviour of other AIM companies I have come across in the past. My concern is that Hummingbird goes down that route in the future. Hopefully they won't.
Bit unfair on this Dan and the company as they have had an excellent track record in keeping investors up to date and they have done quarterly updates pretty much religiously. The next one is due any time now, which should be the first full quarter of production which will give us all an idea of how things are progressing in terms of ramp up of production and how close they are to the targeted production rate, and how sales are going.
Those are good questions as a lot has happened since last year. The cost of production is likely to be higher in dollar terms as that currency has declined 6-7%. The gold price is higher to compensate. We think it is 125,000-135,000 ounces for April 2018/19. However most other companies in the sector run 1 January to 1 January. In my opinion they need to amend all their figures and regard Q1 as filling up the circuit with gold. 10,000-12,000 ounces of gold actually sold is a great outcome if that occurred. The next 3 quarters should be 90,000 in total and we have a lower figure for 2018 at 100,000. This would allow 2019 to have a higher production target over 2018.
If the company does not want to run proper quarterly diaries, accounts and production profiles, I will divest from here. This is a big issue for me as an investor. I will give them a few more weeks but I am absolutely fed up with the AIM keeping them in the dark approach and they report when they feel like it and only share info to an elite inner investment circle.
I think you are spot on - it's rather perplexing that as investors we are trying to guess when and what we will get by way of quarterly production and financial information.....without it, the market can become suspicious and unsettled. I hope HUM are preparing something soon!
The company needs to deliver a future quarterly production output and financial reporting diary. This is my only criticism of the company thus far and is dead easy to put right. All investors need to know in advance when company reports as this offers transparency. Some sources suggested 11 April for an RNS and we did not get one.
Looking at the timings of previous RNS's, we should be due the first full quarterly production figures any day now, which should hopefully start the process towards a re-rate, as there may well be some initial figures to accompany them.
You sound a little tired. Why not take the spring/summer period off? If I recall, that's your normal pattern?
I agree with your observations re: high street and general downturn in consumer spending. House market is the one to watch. Negative numbers leading up to the imminent UK rate rise surely means more negative numbers to follow as belts tighten further and mortgage affordability reduces. If UK property dipped by 10% over the next 18 months it would not surprise me one bit.
The DOW has been up and down more times than poor Sergio at the 15th hole in Augusta. These 3% to 5% major indice swings are largely driven by the algo's and not the common retail investor. The latter often gets dragged into the equation when using stops or margin etc etc. It creates a snowball effect so yes... often you see a broad sell off on stocks regardless of their quality. But equally, hedge funds funds turn to gold as do many investors which does not just include solid gold but Gold ETF's as well as other pegged trades.
I believe the key to any folio management is to mitigate risk while maximising reward exposure. Hence tapping into a sector that has already been battered is not a bad idea at all. Commodities are back in demand after being in a bear market for some 4 years+. Gold has not had a 'large' run for years now. We've seen currency spikes, crypto's etc and major indices all do well. Gold is long overdue a run to the 1600's or 1800's again imho. HUM is an early producer and as such not priced based on full production or upcoming cash flows but instead, discounted based on risks of the unknowns. Risks that they may not deliver the production levels as forecasted. With higher POG and derisking of the asset via continuous production / sales targets being met, HUM should double from today's prices with ease whether the DOW is at 26000 or at 18000. Either case supports HUM's growth.
Other stocks that often out perform the market when a downturn hits are high impact explorers. MATD as you well know has massive targets coming up with 100% ownership. Due to small market cap and their exciting regional positioning (close to china) they could double, triple or quadruple upon success or even a sniff of success. with 4 x drills planned, any dusters will just dent the sp slightly before rebounding for the next drill and so on. Funding stocks that have a 'reason' to buy them is the key when markets are wobbly. You need stocks with strong catalysts and upward news flow.
Looking at trading activity across the board on First ISA day (friday), the major indices were taking a hit while many of the commodity focused stocks were bouncing higher. It's taken a while to rebalance but I believe going forward, the investment banks will have to seek out riskier growth stocks to gain their growth rates targets as the days of easy money via qe across the major indices looks gone.
When the economic s*** hits the fan the price of Gold goes up. Is there any better time to be invested in an ambitious, competent and undervalued gold producer, at the start of an epic journey, at the start of the next economic crisis?
I think not, which is why I'm buying as much HUM as I can. Almost up to my ears!
Being in any stock right now? Market is all over the place big money seems to be pulling out or got a whiff of trouble ahead, interesting walking down the high street these days, shops are shutting up shop, not just retail, fruit and veg and basic commodities are closing also, last time I saw this was before the last financial crisis, I made a mental note if I saw this again I knew what may be coming. Was also at the airport the other day folks going to Spain and the like look like the haven't got 2 pennies to rub together but are spending probably what they haven't got, how long before the next crash bang lorra lang?? Hub??
Am I being pessimistic or just got my summer head on??
New tax year, new mining stock to invest in - took an initial stake today - seems to be, as with all mining stories, wait and see, but at least here HUM seem to be towards the final few chapters - the plant is built and operational, gold being produced pretty much to plan, now I reckon the 'city' needs to see a set of full-year 2017 and half-year 2018 accounts to prove success, but best to be in ahead of the curve/the good news I feel Need to keep an eye on gold price (obviously) but trade wars should provide support, Mali politics and also 'life of mine' and expanding the reserves/resources, but overall one to tuck away for 6-12 months and come back smiling to....hopefully. GLTA
Just did a random review of BLVN, as it's also at 638 has a similar SP. Oil and Gas play with $80m in the bank but no revenue. So will burn through it whilst they wait to prove up resources and get them in to commercial production - which they may never do. HUM on the other hand is making money hand over fist, about to add more resources and extend the LOM. Crazy how the market values things...
Interesting presentation. HUM state that their objective is to Increase & maintain Mineable Reserves to 10 year LoM via conversion of resources to reserves.
I maybe getting this wrong but I believe their strategy of increasing & maintaining the LOM to 10 years could mean a lack of strong institutional investment and hence a lowish market cap because the LOM may never be stated as being excessively long. On the plus side this fact may also help to stop predators since it will be difficult to value HUM's future potential.
However, if they are true to their words from a few months back in returning shareholder value, then for those that invest there could be a steady dividend stream / SP enhancement through share buybacks. Those that sit on the fence, either investors or predators, could quite easily miss out here because HUM didn't mean their LOM criteria.
Alternatively it just might be another bad African investment.
It will certainly shake a few things up and give the algo bot programs a bit of a wobble.
Dollar and everything US (DOW) has driven markets for too long and it's refreshing to see the 'now' largest (or soon to be) economy taking the lead and demoting the US into second place. China have filled a nice gap in the SEA pocket and it gives this region greater control. Vitol and trafalger et all will be finding it harder and harder to manipulate markets.
Certainly bodes well for Oil but as you say, should unpeg many other commodities such as Gold where the dollar is concerned.
1400oz would not look a bridge too far at this current time. 1500oz could be on the board by Q3 if wider markets wobble further.
HUM is a great play on Gold exposure assuming they delivery production as planned of course
Instinct suggests to me that the arrival of the petro-yuan will be good for the price of gold because there will be less scope for price manipulation, however as I'm no economist I would value the opinions of others who may better understand these things? Vekta
Maybe because all of the smart Rrses who thought they were clever selling in the high 30s then talking it down have put a dampener on things. Maybe if AIM had more real investors than ten bob traders it would be different.
You reap what you sew. Just saying.
AIM is full of Richards who sell then dont understand why things dont go up FK.EM.ALL.
SP took a hit after the AGG deal fell through. Current price looks about right for tbe 7 years production from proven reserves. HUM says known resources for 12 yrs+ but maybe market is saying show me. Proving up reserves could be the trigger for re-rating
Very frustrating. Thought this would be in mid 40's at least now but just not happening.
This is not the only share on AIM that is not at it's deserved SP. I hold two others in the same position in O&G.
Keep holding on thinking sense will prevail eventually.
We have gold at 1341 and likely to hit 2018 highs fairly soon. The company goes into manufacture full time week after next. Yet this share is 20% less than a few months ago. Why are we valued at last September prices. Why are we not getting a decent break.
Or, the initial results look awesome and have exceeded our expectations, but we need to confirm it before we make a song and dance about it.
Cora is at the start of a long journey, why oversell now when it might later impact the SP if not as Stella as expected. This really could be we are so amazed by what we are seeing that we need to confirm it before we say anything?
Or, you might be right. Results are rubbish how do we massage this!
There is a interesting statement:-
"Test assay work using a variety of techniques concludes larger sample sizes are needed to mitigate risk of sample bias and maximise the potential for more representative results"
Reading the associated text (eg "Panning of samples at the rig often encountered visible gold, ranging from a few grains to over a hundred grains in the pan", I interpret this as saying that the gold concentrations are a bit random and more sampling is needed to get a clearer picture. To my mind this bodes well for some exciting results. There are also some interesting photos of gold from the pans and supplementary information that look good to me, but am not really qualified to realistically comment on, other that to say that I understand that weathered ore should be easier to mine.
Well if Hummingbird are quiet here's B2Gold Corp: ("B2Gold" or the "Company") would like to address certain erroneous media reports from Mali regarding the development of a new mining code.............. Statements attributed to a Government Minister at a recent joint news conference with the International Monetary Fund suggested that if compromises with mining companies are not achieved, amendments to the mining code may be unilaterally implemented. The full details of any proposed new mining code and the timing for its implementation are not known at this time. Government officials have advised the Company that the Minister's comments were taken out of context in such news report and should not be applied to all mining operations in Mali.
Mali official has confirmed that released statements are inaccurate and out of context and intend to release a statement to put the record straight. This is direct from the boys on the ground in Mali, so any concerns caused because of this are misplaced.
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