Ok thanks for that, I have never heard of the place, looked it up on a map and the closest Ive ever been is Novi Ligure for work, over 40 years ago. Stayed in a small hotel there and their speciality was a four cheese pasta with Tartuffe, and I recall the wine was really special. Happy days.
I concurr and more than that, but am definitelt late for gold party but POG can only get higher - see the POG vs QE chronologically - this is hardly surprising thats when if you ever think that way - QE has created stretched boundaries to who-knows-what-next.
Think where the repayments from all the QE generated money multiplied by incremental hike in interest rates - this is a huge demand the supply of which can not be met from current system
rise in financial inequality in west, extreme automation extreme efficiencies, health and social bills,, widening GDP VS DEBT and military expenses.
So only money demand can be reduced to meet supply.
This money either has to be removed, excused = old styled inflation ? May be in olden days but wont work as inflation will burden supply.
So we need to wipe out money demand
War ? Oldest trick, unlikely no one is that principled in this day age
New Smarter way ?
Yes but what ?
Gold again ?
Low Tax Small Govt Gig Economy ?
Bigger Single European State ?
Affordibility now lies in china and east - thats what my calc say.... one main reason I got out of banking financials etc. Anything that wont make money through China wont make me millions through investment
In your last post you mentioned Chinese in Piemonte. Please dont feel obliged to answer but do you live anywhere near biella/ occhieppo my mother was born there and we visit each year to catch up with cousins etc. I worked in TURIN/MILAN for a few years its a beautiful part of Italy.
You got a much stronger CPI figure out the US which is interpreted as inflationary hence the spike in Gold. I think you either believe in Gold as a store of value or you don't. Buffett described it as a "useless yellow metal". I don't agree, however, when you print money, like there is no tomorrow, and gold cannot rally, it makes me wonder what actually drive the POG. I don't think we have seen the low in gold yet.
What has caught my eye is the strength of the Euro.
In terms of the East vs West question. I favour the East. I think people underestimate just about everything about the Chinese - their capacity to work, the size of their middle class, thier education system. In fact in my small town in Piedmont, the Chinese own the local bar and the discount store. Not only can they speak Italian, they speak the minority piedmontese lingo.
The West has the demographic nightmare to contend with. In fact, I would regard China as the only superpower in the world.
"Lets assume that markets stay where they are. Who thinks, whatever the results that LLOY is going to outperform the FTSE by 21% to get to 80?"
Me, MacB, me!!
Actually, to caveat that - you are right, if markets (most pertinently the FTSE) stay down here then 80p will be that bit harder, and probably unlikely on this timeframe (ie. next 12m).
But I think there is an important disconnect between the world (and the BoE) worrying about rising interest rates, and the LLOY SP. Pretty much down to the outstanding Brexit issue - elsewhere they worry about rising interest rates (even though they are rising for generally "good" reasons) - but stocks particularly exposed to the UK economy (and few are more so than LLOY) are still fretting a "hard" Brexit and the economic repercussions (whatever your own personal view of these).
I think that good sense prevails in the end... and with it, the LLOY SP! But as long as it remains a tail risk, the worries - and SP discount - will remain...
"Any SP movement which is what we are interested here depends on future profits"
I don't mean to be obtuse, but, surely the share price movement depends more on the FTSE? I've looked at LLOY for a fair while and my overriding conclusion is that it is incapable of decoupling from the index. Someone suggested a couple of weeks back when the SP was 72, that it should be 73 in February. If markets moved in a linear manner, that might be true, but, they don't.
Lets assume that markets stay where they are. Who thinks, whatever the results that LLOY is going to outperform the FTSE by 21% to get to 80?
"80p in next 12 months ? you can have it... humble request you dont check LLOY 10 yr old figures... Buying today for next 10 years - consistent 20% YOY with hefty dividends ?... I would say 40% growth by 2028 - 4% /Yr average."
BA - I am very familiar with the chequered LLOY backstory!
Yes, 80p is a broad 12 month "expectation" - but no more precise than that, and I am prepared to wait if needs be.
As for the next 10 years... Who TF knows? But certainly NOT expecting 20% pa... as always, I'd be looking for an average long-run equity return, and any more would be a bonus - so a total return around 10% pa, assuming average inflation around the current 3% level.
But with a 6% forecast yield for this year and a reasonable chance of further divi growth from there, then we wouldn't actually need much at all by way of capital appreciation to hit that kind of target. In fact, your "4%/yr average" - if purely on the SP - would indeed be more than enough!
To quote Uncle Warren again, "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when..." well, you know the rest. Any more than this 10% pa. would be tending to the greedy IMHO... but then, there're plenty of fearful folk around just at the moment.
PS. Other rickety old clichés available on request - even though I try to avoid them like the plague....
"... I am all out of faith with most of my picks, torn between a big bet on LLOY or LGEN to try and recover recent losses. Hovering..."
FWIW very interesting market movements today. US inflation data - supposedly the big testing point this week - did indeed come in higher than expected, the US market was down 0.5% at the open, yet has recovered quickly and is now nicely up. Likewise the UK, dipped into negative territoriy on the US data, yet now back up over 1%. US bond yields trending down now, too...
I am not going to say we are out of the woods, that would be foolhardy - but highly encouraging ... for the moment, anyway.
"Unless you want to hold LLOY for next couple of years - in which case anything is possible... 5% upward growth is easily available in other BlueChips, something LLOY has been struggling and sadly will continue... Markets dont lie, they dont play games..."
Don't know about "couple of years", BA... that's for the short-termers. As I learned at the knee of Uncle Warren, "if you're not prepared to hold an investment for 10 years, don't even think about it for 10 minutes..."
Markets may not actually lie - but they DO change their mind, quite a lot! Back and forward...
Don't know about your 5% - I still see 80p here, without being at all unreasonable IMHO. Just don't ask me when... but for that 20% (plus surely chunky dividends on top) I am prepared to wait....
You traders seek SP movement, but we income seekers are quite content, and I would suggest we will be holding for the foreseeable future. Modest capital gain over the next few years will be a bonus on top of steady income growth.
Please don't ask me to make the case again, it is already made by a majority of analysts IMO.
May I ask how and where do you see LLOY making profit in future ?
Any SP movement which is what we are interested here depends on future profit, even if you remove Brexit / PPI and Efficiency issues, LLOY to make significant profit seem difficult and when you add Brexit / PPI and inefficiency - SP gets worse.
Unless you want to hold LLOY for next couple of years - in which case anything is possible - charts etc cant help you deciding price movement - not for a Goliath LLOY.
5% upward growth is easily available in other BlueChips, something LLOY has been struggling and sadly will continue.
Markets dont lie, they dont play games, not with a Blue Chip.
Take whatever profit you can from LLOY and run a mile ! go Tech or go China
Last year they were 22nd February, is there a date, it looks like next week.
Looking at the chart, the shares were about this price a year ago while Lloyds are in a better place now although the FTSE 100 having been higher is now a touch lower. Having followed Soi back in at 66.5p it seems to me, very simplistically, there is a reasonably good chance of a turn to be made before or after the figures and statement.
Its a lowly rated, fairly solid business paying hopefully a chunky dividend. Never mind the fundamentals, the truth is the tape as Soi reminds us, no doubt he will have been in and out a few times before then, good for him, and very helpful for us to see his trades.
Nah, regardless of all the theories I still reckon it's a golfing term - hear it often when out playing and that my friends qualifies as evidence which is mostly direct, often cicumstantial and sometimes hearsay.
I would also suggest that if wetted by sea water, then the anaerobic fermentation process might produce hydrogen sulphide (the oxygen in the sulphate of seawater and the wsaste itself is used instead of oxygen from the atmosphere leaving hydrogen sulphide as gas) and that too is noxious - it stinks, and in relatively small concentrations is highly toxic when breathed. So storage high not only keeps it dry but helps it to be well ventilated with fresh oxygenated air.
I don't know any Hebrew so can't heat with the OT.
I classical greek there are quite a lot of words that could be so translated. Kakos is one of them and I have just discovered that ST Paul uses the word Skubala in Philippians 3:8.
OFF on a tangent in Victorian England dog [email protected]@@ was referred to as "the pure" and collecting infra the streets of London was an industry. It was sold to tanners for use in tanning leather.
>>With income you can spend it over and over again
And use it to buy more stocks, thus gaining capital growth: that is what I do, a better idea, I think, than investing in accumulation funds to that end (the "pound cost averaging" approach which is often recommended) .
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