When individual shorts reduce in this situation the reason is clear. When they increase, not so clear. An increase in the position could be a genuine short term short speculation or it could be forced selling to restrain the price because order book shenanigans aren't working. Given the increase in the price today on high volume, my guess is the latter. Also expect more of that false downgradings and pessimism. TLW is OK at the current oil price and can be expected to be consolidating its position with carefully considered hedging.
The only mover today was Key Group, declaring a day late as usual. They are down from 0.96% to 0.85% taking the overall total declared down to 6.93%. Marshall Wace is the contrarian in the bunch, they have been edging up as the others reduced. They have the largest position at 2.32%. Odey remains at 1.48%.
The short traders are keeping busy as they close. Today's stats show 45% buys to 34% sells with the balance of 21% being those "Unknowns". Sill they managed a nearly 6p drop in the price. Bargains for all.
Declared shorts down again from 7.63% on Friday to 6.92% yesterday. Key Group down from 1.08% to 0.96% on 19/10/2017 and Millennium have dropped off the list altogether stating that they fell below the declaration threshold to 0.47% also on 19/10/2017, so once again both declarations made one day late. No-one at the FCA seems to care though. At least it shows that short selling TLW seem s to be going out of fashion. Odey is still up there at 1.48% though so I guess that he is still expecting a miracle.
Another reduction of 0.04% in today's total declared short positions, down from 7.67% to 7.63%. There were 2 changes, both dated 13/10/2017, so both declared one day late. Key group reduced by 0.10% from 1.18% to 1.08% and Marshall Wace increased by 0.06% from 2.14% to 2.20% over the same period. Looks as though Key Group took advantage of Marshal Wace's selling to reduce their position.
Odey has been at 1.48% since 08/09/2017 so perhaps he has no mates.
All subject to belief in the published figures. I wonder if the FCA ever audits them?
Shorts down in todays declaration list by 0.07% to 7.67%, That's a reduction of about 9.7m shares, all attributable to Key Group, down from 1.25% (achieved on 10/10/2017 declared on 12/10/2017) to 1.18% (achieved on 11/10/2017 declared on 13/10/2017), both apparently trailing the FCA time limit for declaration by one day. What we can see from that however is that their short position reduced by that 9.7 million shares in a single day, the 11/10/2017).
According to my numbers the total number of TLW shares traded on the LSE on 11/10/2017 was 9.1m, that's buys AND sells and those dodgy "unknowns". Hmmmm, let me sharpen my pencil.
Declared shorts down below 8% in today's list. One reduction by AHL from 0.87% to 0.79%, no increases, AHL have played their short position pretty well since their first declaration on 18/03/2015. They were at 1.12% on 21/08/2017 and reduced to 1.06% on 25/09/2017 since when the latest declaration is the third reduction in a row. They haven't been this low since 28/04/2017 when they were at 0.84%. Imho the frequency of the latest notifications suggests that they are closing with some haste.
Declared shorts down again to 8.38% today. Odey still at 1.48%. No doubt that they are putting the brakes on the upward momentum as they gradually close. Only unexpected good news will stop them from managing their exit like that. They are providing a good opportunity for buyers though. Imho they are dong their best to keep the price below £2. Not relevant on the chart but an important psychological threshold.
Another reduction in the declared short positions today, now down to 8.6%. They are still showing that reluctance to adhere to the rules though. The new declarations today came from Capital Fund Management, Key Group and Millennium, all showing the effective date of last Friday so all one day late. The total is down from 8.96% yesterday to 8.6% today, so the steady reduction is continuing. Our favourite, Odey, is still shown as 1.48%, unchanged since 8th September.
Another leaver from today's list of declarable short positions. Citadel have been steadily dropping over the past few weeks and were down to 0.59% on Friday have now left the list. That brings the total down to 10.40% and 7 declarations.
The declared short positions fell yet again in yesterday's FCA list, down from 11.45% on Friday to 10.71% yesterday. Not all of the new declarations in yesterday's list were reductions but ALL were one day late, so we probably still don't know the changes in Friday's trading. The FCA now seems content to allow late declarations as a matter of course, or to publish declarations late. Their instructions are clear enough though:
"You should notify us of your positions by 3.30pm on the trading day after the day the position was reached. All calculations should be made as at midnight on the trading day the position was reached."
I couldn't find any promises by the FCA as to how promptly the declarations would be published though.
Most of the drop was due to Systematica leaving the list, down to 0.49% from 0.58%. Citadel was down from 0.69% to 0.59% and Marshall Wace down from 2.09% to 1.94%. The risers were Key Group up by 0.08% and Capital by .01%
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