WTI currently breaching a previous high (i.e. resistance) at 5044 ish. A close above this seems to bring 52.5 area into play (tl resistance on the daily chart). But even at the current price it seems to represent a break out from the long term tl resistance (weekly chart). Looks bullish to me.
Oil price rise notwithstanding, TLW SP is likely to correct sharply. I am guessing that it will go below 130 this time. If it goes up however and crosses 175 or so, I will change my view to a bullish one.
The article says, 'TLWs share price is quite stable', and 'there may be less chances to buy low in the future once it reaches that value. This is because TLWs stock is less volatile than the wider market given its low beta'.
That must be the joke of the year. TLW beta is 1.28, not low by any reckoning. Two new posters posting late in the night/early in the day, one upvoting other etc...
Time to watch out. Perhaps, these two posts suggest that the SP will take a beating quite soon. IMHO, DYOR etc..
I have WTI at an important potential resistance on the weekly chart. For what it's worth I think it will break to the upside, but confirmation will come with a close above 4922 on Friday for the weekly chart or 4943 on the daily chart (so today's close). If that happens and there is no company specific news to derail it, I'd say TLW was about to rise quite strongly. Difficult to get accurate figures from weekly charts. Data from ProRT charts, which sometimes have substantial differences compared to other data sources.
I'm personally starting to feel the FOLO, and have more than bought back what I sold a few days ago for an advantage of 8-9p. Impatience is rarely rewarded in trading and I don't particularly like the 4h chart on TLW. Might regret this impatience yet.
There's a weak argument to suggest that the touch of 153.8 or so is the bottom, but that is a weak argument. More likely in my view that price will now touch 151.4 to 149.5. A close below that might make me start looking for downside price targets. Obviously, the previous low around 142.2 is one to watch. I still can't get that gap to 129/130 out of my mind.
I've not yet bought back, but do intend to with the right signal. Price is now down 15p or so from the last swing high and it's almost 9p below where I closed part of my position.
Don't worry about henry, just enjoy his increasing frustration as his doom and gloom fantasies go wrong and he just hasn't got the wit to come up with an intelligent response to anything. Oil is showing every sign of rising fast now so he's getting jumpy as he tries to blame management for all the problems of the industry. In fact they have done a great job of keeping the company dynamic in difficult times. That will pay off as that oil "glut" turns into a deficit. I think that we'll see that, for the longs with the fortitude to do their research and stick with it, TLW has presented great buying opportunities on the way down. Recent events show that the way up could be much more rapid.
Hammy you really are a DF. You can't see beyond the end of yer nose.
I'm in Turkey and don't touch Special Brew.
Recall a recent post. I'm very critical of most oilies. I mentioned BP, Oilie T, Premier, Enquest, Genel and Cairn coz they're UK listed and not minnows. I've singled out Oilie T in the past coz it went from the upper echelons of the FTSE100 to nowhere.
Thanks for suggestion. I might drop in on a few from time to time.
Providence I mentioned coz the Plunker is chairman of the board. That's a bad sign like I said. I ain't gonna waste time on them - they'll be gone soon I suspect.
PS The kebabs here are fab. Nothing like the rancid fat sticks served up by your bmmr chum.
Talking of hopeless oilies who stuff their pockets with shareholder coin. I came across an open letter from a Providence Resources shareholder who was begging the chairman to to reign in management and do-nuthins of that company. Some chance. The chairman is a certain Patrick Plunkett former chairman of Oilie T who sat by as shareholders lost fortunes and management got rich. If you want a tip short Providence. With Plunker as chairman it's only going one way.
ROFLMAO at the all knowing DF bmmr who claims credit for ROFLMAO (I don't think so) and has spent thousands of hours posting drivel on this board.
What a pompous bore bmmr is when you recall contributors of yesteryear. The late great SS retired long ago and hasn't been seen for years. The dear departed MX1 was banned months ago after a certain DF threatened to call PC Plod with allegations of homophobia. I bet you're wishing MX1 was still around to spark interest, chuckles and discussion. Blame bmmr.
What's left is a handful of sad day traders hoping to make a few bob and a few DFs looking to get back past [huge] losses. No insights. No titbits from the palaces. No reality pills. No humour. A bulletin bored indeed.
I have WTI price (4945) on a potential (2 historical touches, and now a 3rd) trendline resistance. More often than not these potential trendlines (i.e. 2 touches) turn out to be minor and do not hold. For that reason I would not be at all surprised to see the price of WTI rise beyond this level with a next tl resistance (probably more significant) currently at 52.60ish and falling slowly each day. This one is likely to be a significant resistance.
There is also a horizontal resistance line around 50.45, then 52.1. Data is from ProRT charts.
My guess is that SP of TLW/PMO will rise until WTI hits these levels which will act as decision points. I'll probably rationalise my positions at these decision points.
hbp, I've watched how the manipulators work. I won't go into the detail but they are easy to spot. While the rest of us slog it out over factual disagreements one tactic of the knockers is to inject rumours and to try to humiliate at personal levels; facts don't work too well for them else they wouldn't need to manipulate. Anyone who has debated knows the weakness in the crudity of direct insults. Anyway those urban dictionary anagrams never used to appear here so I dropped in a ROFL to X1 a fair while ago, followed by a ROFLMAO. Sure enough he took the bait and adopted it as an attempted humiliation tactic, followed very quickly by Henry. They (he) adopted the terms addictively without realising that they are an arm badge of their intent and have now become a signature phrase for them (him).
Most of us know that multiple aliases are operated by individuals and they come and go according to the intent of those individuals, ramping or deramping.
Henry how many times do I have to point out to you that your old posts, although now vanishing with every new post, were very positive about Tullow...This is one if not the worst downturn in the oil industry.. If OPEC had not gone crazy and pumped like mad it would not have been half as bad.. Anybody that base's their investments strategy on what they read on these boards will come unstuck.........Who knows, Henry could change sides again when oil is in the mid 70's....I will then point out your naughty posts
No Henry, you're the story teller around here, like the time you told us that TLW's management was bent and had been caught fiddling the insurance and wouldn't get a pay out, tales about wax in the riser pipes and many other doom and gloom stories that never seemed to actually come true. What a joker you are, always good for a laugh.
It's the way you tell em bmmr.
I like the one you tell about the time you put a STRONG BUY on Tullow at £16 and predicted that a big oile would take em out north of £20 to £30.
Or your yarn about the time you reported Silversnout to PC Plod for something or other.
148.5 was defended for the moment. Chart is now really quite interesting. There's a lovely 1433 stoch bullish divergence from price on the daily WTI chart. Price is heading towards it's previous break down from tl support. That will either be a back test leading to continuation down, or it'll be a break to the uspide. A close above 4765 (ProRT data) would seem likely to be a positive influence of SP for TLW and PMO (and I guess some other oilies)
Look at it this way. OPEC has been trying to balance the supply side of the oil market by cutting production. The US has now involuntarily joined that effort. Isn't that likely to lead to in an imbalance in the opposite direction?
As usual in the oil market there is no short term certainty and a mire of consequences to be assessed. For one Venezuela seems to have lost a source of the light oil that it needs to dilute its own heavy crude before it can export it.
As the article points out, lower production in the US will have a much reduced ability to influence crude prices. The US will remain a consumer of crude oil however. If global crude production is reduced then surely that gives OPEC a strengthened ability to control supply.
"in short, the trend lines that the market has become accustomed to will be all out of whack. And because the U.S. offers the most transparent data, closest to real-time as one can get, it has an outsized impact on market psychology. "
Surely the outcome depends on ones perception of the accuracy of that impact on market psychology. The real market power currently lies in that buffer of stored crude. A return to true supply and demand will require the quantity of the oil in storage to be reduced at a price that suits its owners. Those who have been buying oil at low prices and storing it will now have a window of opportunity to sell it high. Oil producers will share in the benefit from that.
If you dyor and look at the IEA data on stocks in comparison to demand it shows that OECD stocks are around 62 days of demand against an average of 61 days for 2012-2016. With a significant drop in production it won't take long for that "glut" of oil to be drained away.
Henry, taking advantage of a short opportunity again I see. There no DF like one who doesn't recognise their own lack of understanding and you are a shining example of that. Firstly Guinea. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make but TLW does the deals it needs to do and operates its business honestly. If that gives other companies the opportunity to benefit a well then good luck to them, TLW has plenty of success on it's plate right now. Greed is a path to failure, but I doubt that you need to be told that.
Now for hurricanes. They increase in power with the increase in sea temperature. Have you ever heard of geothermal energy? Many public buildings and private homes are heated by it in the UK, even Buckingham Palace. It is the extraction of heat from the earth or from water and can be effective even at low ground or water temperatures. It shouldn't be beyond the wit of mankind to find a way of extracting energy from the warm seas that cause hurricanes and solve two problems at one blow.
Perhaps you should try doong some research before investing or trying to strut..
Did you see that post by bmmr? Harnessing the power of hurricanes....he really is a DF.
Anyways, I be watching Hyperdynamics progress on Fatala-1. Gas increasing above background level as the bit approaches objective. I'd laugh me socks off it's a big find.Oilie T was lucky in Ghana coz Kosmos made the find. Oilie T blundered big in Mauritania and Senegal. And Kosmos and others made big discoveries. I won't be surprised to learn that Merlin got this one wrong too. I'll be ROFLMAO if he did.
Price has hit the 150, which is close the base of the megaphone pattern stated earlier. I have a touch of 148.5 as probable now. That gap 129/130 is still calling. If 148.5 is not rejected, there's tl support at 145-146, technical horizontal support at 142/143, then off down to that gap.
Interesting week coming up. Just a modest rise in the Brent price at the moment. Imho it depends on the state of the US refineries affected by the hurricane and the condition of the transport links. If the refineries are down then the demand for crude in the US is likely to be down because it's the refineries that buy and process the crude. The US can't survive long without refined petroleum products though so will have to find a way of importing them. If that happens the demand for crude will be supported and the loss of US crude production will have effect.
On top of the weather problems a couple of US warships are now down after collisions and US naval operations on hold worldwide. Was that bad seamanship, mechanical failure or GPS hacking? North Korea seems to be taking full advantage of the situation to misbehave. Looks like Harvey is not the only perfect storm that has been brewing..
Bass, yes, I agree that fossil fuels currently seem to have a limited future, if for no other reason than they are a finite resource. Fossil fuels are a heritage from the past that must lead us into a cleaner future. That future is still a long way off though, probably over a decade away and energy demand is rising. Either we burn fossil fuels for now or stop advancing, reduce our energy consumption and delay the development of a viable alternative. Any alternative has it's drawbacks though. You have to change something to extract energy, Einstein taught us that energy is just mass in another form, e = m * c squared. The logical course is to concentrate on cleaning up fossil fuel emissions until we have viable alternatives.
The important fact at the moment, imho, is that the hurricane is a significant enough event to speed up the erosion of that oil "glut" and rebalance the oil market to a point where exploration becomes economically viable in a time of increasing demand. That rebalancing must happen in the long run but that run is made a lot shorter by events like hurricane Harvey and regular developments like Libya and others still to come.
Any current imbalance in the oil market has been caused by a small excess of supply over demand (that excess can be measured as a few days of global consumption). Demand is still rising. When the "glut" of oil disappears the rebalancing it is likely to stabilise the oil price at appreciably above its current level. The cutbacks in exploration and rising demand must, imho, result in a spike in the oil price and a big recovery in the oil industry. That will happen long before any alternative energy sources are ready to replace oil. If that theory is correct then now is the time to buy oil shares, not sell them.
In the unfortunate meantime Texas is suffering badly. Perhaps we should find a way to extract energy from hurricanes, or from the warm oceans that cause them.
It's clear now brummell that the true impact won't be known for months and will need managing for years. It can only have a short and medium term upward impact on poo but then long term will rebalance as facilities are brought back online.
The storm will be moving slowly around for days yet, causing extensive flooding with predicted rainfall of 20 inches plus over 5 days. The disruption goes well beyond shipping. Venezuela seems to have lost any hope of it's close source of light oil for dilution of its own heavy crude for a while. US production and refining is hit as well as the utilities and transportation. The latest estimate seems to be that production is going to be down by about 24% and refineries by about 27%. According to CNN that's about 400k barrels per day and it could get worse. It sounds as though the strategic reserve may have to be used for its real purpose for a while but then again, that's crude and how's it going to be refined?
The complexities of the situation have taken everyone aback I think. WTI is down while Brent is up right now. I've got a feeling that the truth will begin to dawn tomorrow. Imho it's a lot worse than currently perceived. There's also a potential tropical cyclone off Florida now with a 90% chance of formation over the next 48 hrs. It never rains but it pours!
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