at 14p following on previous analysis
i wonder is it a little unfair to suggest that people are comparing the company to iraly's current problems.......
i.e. that if there is no growth the debt becomes more difficult to pay down
i think their might be some truth in this
as there seems to be evidence that lower economic growth is beginning to hit advertising budgets so it will be good result if they can hold turnover for next 2 years never mind grow it.
even on lower turnover which my own analysis assumes
they will be able to make good money
and generate lots of CASH
it is just that now it will be 3 years rather than 2 years
before debt gets repaid to an acceptable level
and quickly that becomes too long a time horizon for investors
so if i were the directors i would support a 50m rights at 10p
this would give them more equity than they could buy in the market
and the 5m CASH would be a tipping point in debt repayment
taking this scenario maybe the seller is an insider happy to sell at a bargin 14p knowing they will be able to pick up rights stock at 10p within 6 months
maybe this is realistic and maybe they is enough to tr and trade
but my own strategy is as a long term holder
so would be happy with a further fall and rights as also would enable me to buy volume
in a CASH generating business
take the above scenario and assuming 20% downturn in profits
then in 18 mths would have 4m profits, debt of c,8m and reducing 2m a year
and eps of 2.8p assuming full 30% tax which is too conservative given losses
so even on a modest p/e of 6 that would be ex-rights price value of 17p
so buying now at 14p and then 2 for 5 at 10p represents a decent 2 year return
given state of economy and volatile market and despite my confidence in mgt team
in terms of pure share price it is hard to descibe currently as 'strong buy'
as i think that there is a feasible scenario to be able to buy at 12p
so for the moment i'm happy with my holding as i think very cheap
but will wait for the opportunity to buy even cheaper
All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
TMMG is in my top 10 hldgs
current price is in profit over last 12 mths
as a holder i have been wondering myself why the drift tlower
and have concluded the following.........
- there has obviously been a seller and no buyers. so the question for me is 'is this buyer an insider?' i have concluded that they are not. the market hs been so volatile at the moment and some future scenarios quite scary that people running for safety. so i can see how some-one would sell even though trading may nt have changed. thus i've decied not to worry about the drift and have been topping up holding.
- good news is that directors have been buying
- before big director purchases last year price fell to 7p and i am hoping this is similar
- best scenario is that the volume yesterday was picked up by directors also
- even if turnover is lower - company should be able to manage costs sufficiently to cover debt so i think there is still good value in the equity of the business
- the business is highly cash generative but has yet to reach the tipping point - it might even be a possibility for company to lauch a rights issue - this would enable directors and friends to pick up a larger volume of shares and wold solve the debt discount over night rather than the 2/3 years it will take through trading
from current 14p, i am working on 20p + in 2 years (for 50% upside)
Does anyone have a view as to why this has drifted lower. Ok there is some debt, but management is good (and hugely incented to perform), the interims seemed encouraging and the fundamentals look like a buy... so why the drift...?
- eps this year to be 4p and next year 5p give p/e close to 3
- CASH flow is strong and debt will be < 2 times ebitda within 18 mths
- directors and top mgt team has significant holdings and regularly purchase more
- debt plus equity value is c. 26m so < 4t ebitda which will be 7m next year
- regardless of economic growth or even downturn eps will grow as debt reduces
- share price has formed a signifciant base after the debt and acquisitions in recent years
- shares are tightly held so upside has potential to be significant
well turns out gut feel was right and 70,000 confirmed purchase by non exec director
no guarantee of short term gain
but great to see the short and long term market relative outperformance
which is fully supported by fundamentals and share owning mgt team
more than happy to hold and esp. so if price holds > 17p for next couple weeks
OT - am small holder in Aviva - think they reasonable value but will move with market. had thought and state before that market might find support at FTSE 4800 - will revisit analysis to see if think that still holds. will be great if only a small % further to fall.
Dont know re eleco. hopeful for SIV reporting tomorrow - it throw off huge CASH though recent purchases seem 'ok' rather than great. still if it spending on acquisitions suspect that they will be a divi increase giving great yield at the 66p i bought at today - here's hoping!
Thanks for that - I have bought 3 tranches of TMMG at 9, 12 and 18p - over the last year or so.
Re other companies - I am rabbit in headlights at the moment and carrying cash and a few defensives for income - recently I bought a heap of Aviva at 289 and some Eleco which I think will turn now that it is completing its transition.
meant to say....
i would not be surprised if directors announced they had topped up today
and thus behind the unusually large volume
they have been regular investors before
and given state of market i'd be surprised that pi's buying several hundred thousand shares
guess we'll see next week
the debt has been totally restructured in last 18 mths but part of this due to rights issues (heavily bought into by mgt team) and some switching of deferred debt payments into shares (again now held by mgt team) - debt is also lower at end of H1 as higher H2 business is converted from debtors to CASH. thus to help clarity and comaprision with other companies best to use ebitda / debt ratio. which will be comfortably below 2 within 18mths and maybe sooner if TMMG manages to grows business larger with some astute puchases like last year.
btw are you a recent investor in TMMG?
what other sort of companies are you following?
well the messages between teh lines better than i epxected in the half year results so no surprise the price has risen 3p (20%) in last 2 days on decent volume. there is now solid short term and medium term outperformance to market.
the company is highly profitable, with high % owned by directors and top mgt team and has chosen to hold high levels of debt. as owners this suits them as they can maximise their returns. in the short term though (market has shorter time horizon than directors) the market values the share price lowly.
eps fcst to dec 11 are 4p, dec 12 5p then closer to 6p to dec 13
he company has relatively high debt
at dec 10 it was 18.5m and 3t ebitda
however it is reudcing by 2.5m a year so by dec 13 it will be < 2t ebitda and reducing
and thus at that point i'd expect even in a depressed market to be valued at 6t earnings
and heaven forbid the market might be more postive then to be 8t earnings = 40p+
re CASH flow = ebitda is c.6.5m -7m less 1.5m tax, 1-1.5m interest and 1-1.5m cap ex = 2.5-3m CASH flow free to reduce debt
they talk of growth despite difficult market which shows ambition
but more relevant they might be able to pick up smaller local agencies with no debt which will reduce the ebitda ratio. they did this last year with robson agency and only need 1 a year to speed up the tipping point with ebitda ratio reaches average
i also think their is counter recessionary aspect to business. if they is a reduction in business there will be a benefit in CASH flow as previous business pays up. so the current worry of the market would actually reduce the reason this company is on a low rating.
so for me it has 2 yr upside to double and maybe some more after that ... but that is getting carried away - i see it as realistic chance to double and that scenario does not rely on any future growth just maintaining business and paying down the debt - here's hoping!
Well its been tough few days and tomorrow does not look any better. My analysis below and on other BBs re my top 10 hldgs.
TMMG at 16p down 25% from recent highs
fundamentals = this business is in transition since the new mgt took charge 2 years ago. recent results confirmed that trading is still improving and that debt is reducing significantly. Eps to be 4p then 5p but there is no divi as focus is to reduce debt levels. Recent trading update gave H1 debt down 40%
chart = reflects a business in transition. As a new issue in 2006 at 130p the price has never had a positive spell. it collapsed to 7p late i 2010 and with significant director purchases this has firmly marked the bottom. The base and upward momentum seem well formed and will be able to take price upwards for next leg to mid 20s.
If market collapses > than the expected 5%= price could fall to 15p but think it would be difficult to get significant volume at these prices. It is also likely that the directors would be buyers agains having bought recently at c.19p
market bounce no real reason for price to go higher until results update
Gut feel = price will stick at current sub 20p until release of finals next year. Then with eps of 5p in sight and significantly reduced debt price will be ready to motor to 30p and beyond as a 2 year investment likely to return 35% per anum have topped up in recent days and will do again if further falls
Dow Jones at 10700 and looks like this might be support. If no next stop is 10000 but at least that is only 7% away.
NASDAQ at 23500 and support looks to be 22000 c.7% away.
S&P at 1130 and support looks to be 1080 c.4% away.
FTSE ALL at 2630 and support looks to be 2500 c.6% away.
FTSE 100 at 5000 and support looks to be 4800 c.4% away.
So that all seems consistent around 5% away. This would make a straight line fall of c.20%.
In autumn 08 the straight fall before bounce was c. 27% but i think it would be reasonable to expect a lower lever of fall for 2 reasons:
1 investors could see this coming (i.e. the facts were visible enough) we know now that the lower ratings a couple of months ago and the low volumes all year were b/c some were trading cautiously and not investing.
2 the banks (which are c.20% of index) are much better capitalised so there is relatively less chance that they would need the same level of emergency capital and thus likely falls would be less.
So ive rationalised a further 5% fall from here and at least then a bounce of some sort.
Longer term big picture does not look good but immediate priority is to assess what current action needed.
RNS confirms that trading on track and although no figures given the % quoted imply that debt has reduced c.4m in H1.
seasonal trading means H2 will give higher profits but maybe not as much or even any positive CASH flow as guess as the new business takes some time to pay up.
maybe i'm getting too optimistic but i think even the LTI is god news as i suspect it is more about a reward as well as incentive - i.e. i dont think they could have issued 2% dilution unless trading was going well. also i think that in monetary terms 2% is not very much at these levels so i;d conclude that they are seeing the share price higher so to give 2% away to the top team is then of significant value.
interesting that the cep disposes of 0.6m shares at 18.75p and i guess you could read that as negative news
but the fact that sold to 2 executive directors i think makes it a huge positive piece of news for several reasons
- the directors, who have limited options are investing £100k of their own money
- means that top team ultimately more incentivised as all v.big holders of stock
- means that there is no institutional seller around as obviously then directors would have bought in the open market at cheaper price - i.e. if instituion looking to sell 600k shares in one lump i think 16p would be a decent price with low liquidity in shares
- day had bought a large chunk at 7.5p a few months back so he is able to realise a 150% profit which makes sense for any investor and also provide additional incentive for his mgt team which means that his remaining c.6m holding has better prospects
- it more and more smacks of a total top team effort which i think is very valuable.
on the financials...
eps to dec 12 and dec 13 fcst at 4p and 5p respectively so a p/e of just over 3 18 mths out - seems madness to me!
debt / ebitda was 3.3 at last year end which is obviously driving low rating but working out EV at 30m this is only 5.5t
debt interest costs are high and there is no dividend which means that profit should go straight to CASH flow and becomes a reducing cost spiral. bank has warants over 1.5m shares at 10p so they will have done well out of previous re-financing and thus maybe likely to refinance in 12 mths time with lower debt.
ebitda fcst at 7m to dec 13 (which seems v. feasible given new mgt hold on costs and current growth in advertising esp. digital)
debt at 18m less c/flow of 2m in 2011 and 2m in 2012 plus release of high level of debtors means it could get down to 12m so at normal debt levels the p/e rating s/be at least 8 (40p) and if start to be seen as go-go company 12t (60p).
the chart looks to fit story perfectly as well
my immediate 12 mths target is 35p and happy to top up on any falls as long as 17p holds
On HSD - it has net cash balances in the region of £50m or more. It has embedded value (i.e. value of its policies in force now of 192p a share as against 155p per share price). Also the dead hand of UK regulation that affects some comparable companies does not apply. They also target 'mass affluent' and the wealthy - which is a big growth area.
-the above is cut and pasted in bits from an article in the FT by Peter Temple (private investor):
Also they are only 13.73t earnings not 25-30. Their interim management statement in May said:
 New business momentum continues at industry leading margins:
- Present Value of New Business Premiums (PVNBP) up 37.4% to £162.1m for the nine months (2010: £118.0m);
- New business margins of 8.0% on PVNBP basis for the nine months (2010: 6.9%);
- Benefits of globally diversified business with strong performance in growth markets of Far East and Latin America;
 Regular premium PVNBP of £33.2m for the three months ended 31 March 2011 is almost double the level of the corresponding quarter;
 IFRS profit after tax for the nine months to 31 March 2011 of £12.9m (2010: £13.5m);
- Some impact from increased expenditure on new business initiatives and ongoing regulatory compliance, as previously stated;
 EEV operating profit after tax for the nine months of £13.9m (2010: £10.0m);
 Assets under Administration of £1.3 billion at 31 March 2011, up 11.7% since 30 June 2010 and stable since 31 December 2010;
 Increased interim dividend of 5.75p per share paid on 31 March 2011 (2010: 5.5p).
As I say though - I really do not know about this kind of business - just feel the above 8% dividend is in this case a sign of strength rather than weakness. I own less than half of Hansard as what I do in either mission and 4imprint though ...
hello Biscuit B - just thought i would sympathise with you regarding the PFD bb. i agree with your very clear analysis and dont think that the shares represent the best of investments. i had traded earlier in the year and got nervous as the price rose. that said i also decided that shorting was too risky an option. the price seems to have momentum and given that the mgt are doing deals there is always the chance of a take-over. all of the issues re the industry would be lessened if the manufacturer has more negotiating power so if you look at how much it might be worth to a bidder the price is a fair bit higher than to us as stand alone investors.
well done on NBI. i;ve looked at AIEA last year and decided not to invest but will watch now with interest as directors buys and price moves makes it interesting.
anyway just wanted to say i liked your analysis on PFD and didn't want to post on that board as there seem to be too many overly biased views that are not analytically based.
well director buying seems to have acted as a spur for pi's to jump on board and price at one stage was over 20p and chart looking even more positive starting with a 2xp. eps for this year 4p then 5p so still seems a bargin. i think the debt will get debt with either of 2 ways:
repaid through trading which would be then create p/e of 8t it hink
rights issue just to make the debt a comfortable level (proably this is more likley but it is not on cards at the moment (or directors could not be buying) but think it might be a possibility if price gets > 25p. it would provide better liquidity, enable them to undertake acquisitions again and could enable the directors to buy in further size (i.e. they would struggle to get 1m shares in the market at 20p)
hi - thanks for getting back and lucky you to be off at the beach for 3 weeks! TMMG seems such a bargin and repeated directors buying at higher prices can only be good news. have you ever had any dealings with co?
FOUR - yes nice to see move higher and profit taking today is a chance to top up for me. chart looks good and i suspect if they sort out pension it will generate re-rating. but all stocks in this market are tricky and risky so esp. here with thin market will not be jumping in too heavily.
HSD - i took a very very quick look at. just saw 1.3bn under mgt and MV of 200m...... if MV is 200m and say expecting 50% price rise to 300m then needs PBT of 30m? to support price. even if costs are only 25% of revenue then needs 40m revenue. but that is 3% of funds under mgt which i doubt is sustainable. so not sure if they have other profit stream that i've obviously missed? chart doesn;t look strong to me either at this point. i;m a bear of HL. for the same reason. they just seem t charge too much and wont have superior performance over the longer term and internet makes it easy to produce lower cost model so dont see why they are rate at 25-30t earnings etc......
SIV, GPG and RSA all looks solid to me and better liquidity than FOUR. And INB is usual after friday;s RNS (chinese funding rights at 200% above prevailung price!!)
All IMHO, DYOR and BoL
I hold SIV, GOG, RSA, FOUR and INB
RNS comfirms more director buying at up to 18.5p. can still buy at 18.5p so i guess that means there is a willing seller around and at these prices i;m happy to be a willing buyer!
chart supports the turnaround story that could see significant price mvt over a couple of years which ties in with eps fcsts of 4p and 5p.
i think all it will take is some press coverage / next set of results to see a more reflective price (with all the director holdings there must be relatively few spare shares around after seller clears) but i;m happy for a solid share price base to build and for company to be off the radar of others at the moment.
Sorry 30/50/20 for lack of response - have been on beach based holiday for nearly 3 weeks. Sadly I missed out on the OSG - well done on that though!
You seem to have been proven right so far on 4imprint too. As you say though, small volumes make it tricky to know what is happening - but clearly being at a 3 year high is not totally random! Seems clearly very very seriously undervalued.
Mission firming up very nicely too!
My Hansard Global are basically back to where they were when I bought them - still yielding 8% - and with rapid growth. To be honest I do not know enough about it to know whether there is some underlying flaw (and based this purchase on an FT tip - and the fact that the dividend yield when linked to the rapid growth - and the fact that it is a business based on rich people - clearly the biggest grwoth area for the future) - but seems an amazing buy on the face of it.
updated forecasts from SP show:
- profits to Dec 11 of 4.1m and eps of 4p,
- profits to Dec 12 of 5.1m and eps of 5p
- no divi's fcsts which seems appropriate until debt reduces further.
this seems like even more bargin value at 16p..... am surprised that these eps upgrades have not led to more of a price rise.
checked re the RNS - 42,500*2 were bought off market - so maybe there is/(was) an overhang? there is no requirement to state who off market was from. 37,500 they also bought off market but i guess since these were from a fellow director then had to be disclosed. So you could say that £20,000 of purchases is not huge but it is chinking enough reduction in bank balance for most and esp. on top of previous purchases at placing 9 months ago. I think particulalry encourgaing to see that they are prepared to put more money in at a price 30% above 9 months ago.
So i think previous headline still sums it up:
"P/E < 4, profits increasing and mgt own 30%"
these forecasts are not even based on serious growth numbers and chart pattern also looks like forming a turnaround. so all in all still looks good to me.
i found the RNS a bit confusion. the first 2 directors - 'agreed to buy' but from whom? the third director makes good reading that day shares half of his recent purchase. so good that director wants to buy and good that day not selfish. also implies that they were not able to get that amount in the market so would just have bought directly at say 16.5p. so no overhang / institutional seller around..... so any god rpess coverage when earnings forecasts released should correlate directly into higher price as would imagine most holders at this price as not selling until high 20's
News just in advising Robert Day , Executive Director, bought a further 75000 shares at 15p on 5th April making his holding 6,380,603 shares - representing approx. 8.81% of issued share capital of the company
thanks for that - i think not surprising - possible candiates would be directors and employee trust?
i was surprised byt eh fall after results and think it is a bit of MM tree shaking. price has fallen back to chart support level so i think this enables it to build base and then undertake further upside that reflects its value.
thanks for those:
FOUR - i agree and hold some already
AGA - i didn;t realise they had spread of brands so will try to look at
CAR - fell i badly missed boat at lower prices. i looked at after DS tip but decided to hold back - they are capable of much higher but in any market downturn could get a good bit of profit taking i think.
SIV - fcsts have been raised since results from 14p to 16p. historically company had big c/flow which spend on equipment. new ceo has invested in new businesses and said that deprec will be much higher than cap ex for couple of years so that means great cash flow for another couple of years. so low levels of debt, p/e of 7t and good chart.
NFC - it has great growth record and involved with world's largest IT companies also growth market. so i think it is growth on growth. low debt, p/e of 8 and good chart.
OSG - provides brand security on internet so again i think growth on growth. Investcorp is 30% investor. H1 was full of exceptionals - see db for my own fcsts of H2.
GPG - is investment holding company that has plans to divest. NAV is c. 55p but hidden within that is Coats which has NAV of £300m (from memory) but my conservative valuation is nearer £430m which adds a further 6p to NAV. They have promised to return what works out to be 4p a share over next 12 months.
4imprint I think is very undervalued. Dividend yield of 5.4% - and with the last few sets of results showing very very rapid growth (and that is even before the economy has properly recovered to start spending much on promotional products which is what they sell). They are up 60% on the year - but I reckon they have a long long way to go (with a nice dividend in the meantime). Seems to me its another case of a small company not being properly valued yet. I am looking to buy more soon.
My aga rangemaster shares have increased 40% in the last since bought in October - but at 129 they still have a way to go before my target of 200. I think luxury brands are a good long term bet. The aga bit of the business will not grow much - but the other luxury brands they have will I think. I wont be buying more but will hold.
Also bought Carclo on a recent tip in the Financial Times (David Schwartz) tip. See the carclo board for info on what he said. No guarantee he is right of course!
agree hindsight is a great thing but think you are right not to be too reticent. when the market has been going up steadily it is easy to fall into the trap of thinking shares just go up all the time so volatility to be expected esp. in small cap shares. the value here for me is if they can keep business ticking over then the cash generation will add to equity value which will make current share price (and 18p) look very cheap but that will take time. it might even turn out to be a good thing you fully invested at the mo as maybe pick them up before next results at same price! what other stocks on your radar at mo?
Thanks thirty fifty, very helpful. I'm also holding this for the medium term 2/3 year view. I topped up earlier in the week at 18. Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but I'm content with the potential at 18. I would top up again today with the dip - but sadly no spare cash at the moment!
i think the results were as expected. the lower eps includes 'the kitchen sink' (i.e. one-off restructuring costs, bank fees for renegotiation of debt and amortisation); the higher eps is a 'best case' scenario.
2010 was undoubtedly a good year for TMMG but i think the share sales this morning reflect disappointment on a couple of points.....
1 - there was little mention of 'a great start' to 2011
2 - debt is still high at £18.5m
however i think the underlying story still remains and the shares are undervalued on a 2/3 year view. my reasons are:
1 - cash flow. the company is capable to generate 2m a year so even at the current size the debt will reduce by 4m over the next 2 years giving ebitda to debt ratio of 2.5 times:
ebitda of 5.6
cap ex (0.7)
free cash flow = 2m
2 - profitability. ongoing eps are likely to be 3.3p giving P/E of < 5t
ebitda of 5.6
deprec of 0.7
interest of 1.6
tax of 1.3
profit after tax = 2.0m (with 60m shares = 3.3p)
3 - team work. the new ceo has obviously pulled the business together and some statements in the results give comfort that this will continue. the senior managers are very incentivised with shares they own.
4 - loan repayment. the interest rate on this is high at 7% over LIBOR and due to be repaid in 2013 s at that point a reduction of 3 or 4% is likely which would save up to 0.5m a year (this adds 0.8p to eps). even allowing for interest rates to be 2% hgher in 2013 this still adds 0.4p to eps.
5 - rns. the statement was not as confident as i was hoping but reading through it again the big aspect that is missing i think is a summary of 2011 trading. however anytime the futrue is referred to in the statement it is in a positive context esp. with relation to CASH flow. thus i think the relevant point is what is missing from the statement. with a glass half full approach the statement is accruate and does not contain anything worrying but the directors did not go out of their way to talk up their prospects. this is unusual but i think deliberate to keep something in the bag for later.
i am buying at these levels (17p) with a 2/3 year view of 35p.
at 17p - RNS this morning says results will be released on 31st March. This is 2 weeks earlier than previously so i think positive in several respects:
1 - it means their accounting is in better shape results out
2 - it means that business is simpler to understand than in past
3 - they have a desire to improve investor relations
4 - it is easier to bring good news forward - here's hoping!
with earnings of over 3p fcst any news on lower debt and some stability in trading could see the second leg of re-rating.
last RNS stated profits to be above expectations which leaves open the chance of more good news when Finals released in 4 weks time.
IMHO the following points make this one of my top ten opportunities:
new internal mgt are now in charge of the company and i think there is now evidence that very positive and significant changes are happening which could lead to signifiant upside
- EBITDA = c.6m+. MC at 17p = c. £12m
- eps fcst to be 3.3p and then 4.3p.
- but no divi yield fcst as the company concentrates on debt reduction
- industry news says that the market place is tough as companies are still cautious with their marketing budgets. This should not cause undue worry unless the UK economy does get significantly worse. The upside in the share price is not that the company gets more business but that its current level of profitability is recognised
- chart has broken out of a 3 year severe downward trend - the price was 150p 3 years ago - maybe there will be a prolonged base formed before any upward mvt but the potential is c.50p
- looking at downsides the business is exposed to clients and/or people leaving but this is an industry risk and no evidence of this being a particular issue at TMMG. debt has been paid off in the last 12 months which leaves (in simple terms) t/o of c.90. even allowing a sharp UK downturn and this fallling to 80m is able to achieve 5% operating margins that would be op prof of 4m compared to a MV of 12m which seems too low a rating.
- when new mgt came in the company had a rights issue that broke the back of previous acquisition debt. the great news from the rights issue was that the drectors and the senior mgt team all bought in heavily. directors has subsequentially topped up significantly too and now top mgt prob own c. 30% of the business.
- interesting the last RNS focuses on saying that they will continue on managing the strong CASH flow and monitoring costs. this is a great statement and signal for me - it implies that CASH flow is still good and that any future RNS has potential to surprise, and it implies that they are managing the profitabiliyt of the business - so regardless of the level of turnover they will manage to achieve a decent level of profitability. This reduces the risk for me and also i think is a very positive about the mgt - they are not focused on becoming bigger for the sake of it but want to run the company on the basis of generating sharehlder value (which includes themselves)
- Ive only followed the company for a couple of years, and overall it seems significantly undervalued because the level of profits would seem sustainable at least, debt is no longer a problem and futute CASH flow will be strong.
- it is one of my top ten holding and although i think it could reach 50p over a couple of years i expect to stop selling at 25-30p.
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