does anyone share my suspicion that a huge number of people are holding back from investing and desperately waiting for a sensible conclusion to brexit. When that happens, and it will, prices will take off faster than a North Korean rocket.
" The FTSE this week (FTSE:UKX) We tend take absurd efforts in measuring index movement as part of our ongoing attempts to identify pressures which will effect the FTSE. Sometimes these efforts can be wasted, sometimes they bare extraordinary ..."
Well the tax plan has always been used as leverage against the bears. What bears? Yeah I know there is not many left.
Things to take into consideration are the tax cuts are big but less than stated at the start of the year. The plan has been changed so many times no one really knows what the deal actually is. The other issue is will companies agree to bring back their operations from offshore centers. I doubt it. The big factor is no one really understand how much the bigger corporate had been dodging taxes, so technically the tax cuts will mean some pay more if they bring their capital onshore.
The weekend futures looks to be slightly cautious but its very likely to open much higher. Its hard to gauge when it will drop but really now this market has already spectacularly priced in the good news and a bit more IMHO. Some are itching to sell their positions and now looking for an excuse. So, once its spiked and on the US open I am looking to sell AND sell aggressive.
Well it was going well until that brief Trump event!
Many TA people thump the tub that "exogenous events do not affect the markets".
I am prepared to agree with that over longer time frames.
That said, a better way of expressing the proposition would be to say "exogenous events have no effect on long term market behaviour, HOWEVER, on time frames of 30 minutes or less they have a determinative effect upon rectal behaviour"
Wiped out (small stake but good points) then went back in long at 24098. That went quite well and I closed it at 24202 (too early).
Watched the close and at the last minute went short half stake at 24238 no stop (as I have the weekend to think about that). That was a plan I had envisaged earlier. Many, many people/bloggers/pundits have been prophesying a poor first week in December. (Maybe too many as I type and reflect). But that was the plan.
Then, Gordon Bennett!!!, no doubt long after I'd gone to bed, they passed the effing tax bill!
So that leaves me with an open short position over a weekend when all would now expect the market to rocket up on this news when it opens.
My inclination is to put 20 pt stops on the position and watch the open tomorrow night and then maybe go long on the rise if it happens.
Or should I sell the news and do nothing?
It is to be remembered that my inclinations are normally wrong.
1 Dow: only the daily candle on Friday looks like a potential
bearish hangman candle, otherwise bullish across all other time
2 FTSE: daily bear flag, weekly bearish M+A, monthly M top, all
3Dax: daily bear flag; other time zones undecided;
4 Cac: ditto;
5Nymex: could go either way, no clearcut signal;
6 gold: ditto;
7 sterling/dollar: critical moment coming up.
Well, some like to look at trains, planes etc, my favorite
past time is gazing into charts, lol.
Download recovered most of it now.
However, the drop was so sharp that 24300 could be a temporary top or alternatively it is buy the dip. I'm really neutral on it for now.
Dow just seems poor value vs ftse.
Yet you know for a fact that a dow drop would take ftse down as well.
Its related for sure. He has upset too many people and lets face it he is a nut job. Trump has set up a scenario where he is too big to fail right? Well he is not dealing with apprentices here, that is a fail in itself.
Comments made on CNBC in the states that ETF, spiders automated sales course dramatic drop and buyers withdrew their bids to create a open pocket / hole as they moved to the sidelines,,,, almost down 340 a few minutes ago but turned around 150pts in 10 mins with real trading and volume now kicking in
Now one thing happened yesterday which made me laugh and it puts it all into perspective. John McCain Oven Chips did a U turn and said he would vote for the bill. This when made the market believe the deal was already done.
Whoops. John McCain is currently dying and his peers have said he is not himself and we all really know this.
So, how the heck did the market thing this. I will tell you the spin of lies that are now being spun by the US media in fear of Trump.
They gotta get a grip of reality, this market is clearly F U C K E D.
and may I add the USA IS CLEARLY VERY BANKRUPT why in gods name would they agree to add US$2T onto the bill.
Remember what comment was made by iii editor should 7360 break, 7308 tested then 2nd area 7240
In the event the index now manages below 7360, reversal to 7308 remains a dangerous ploy as secondary if broken, comes along at 7240 and the risk of no Xmas dinner as it will becomes apparent the FTSE intends complete the year, trapped in its useless trading range.
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