The main holdings are now quoted, but subject to lock up. If they sell en bloc at the end of that period there will be some hit, but there is currently quite a margin of safety. I believe the lock up ends in October. What they get will also depend upon how much the other holders that may be in lock up want to sell at the same time. Spain has done well for tourism this summer because of the events in Turkey and likely the fact some Greek islands are refugee centres. So Parques may have done OK and get a bit of a lift at their next update. SP a bit down on last Candover figs, but Technogym a bit up. A reasonable risk-reward proposition. Unfortunately its not poss to short these via IG or I'd buy Candover and sell those two to arb the discount away over time.
Expro - rev and ebitda up. Almost cash flat which is the important thing - so expro at an inflection point - if it continues as is (with rev growing) then the company will start to rocket in value. 5x debt/ebitda - possible to IPO now but might be worth waiting a year ?
Stork - reults picked up but still a way to go - improvement though
All in all should continue increasing Candover valn
35% up so far on the year and still a 25% discount. Given that and expro results (also people still going on holiday to Spain) think we will get a further snap up a bit later in the year and then we can reassess.
I think the new buyers are basing their decision on the fact Expro finances have been improving (check the Expro web site), reduced debt:earnings, increased revenue and margins. In addition, there is a story that any one of Haliburton (previous bidder for Expro), GE or Schlum may bid for the company, and that Goldman and Deutsche Bank are advising on an IPO (Goldman are also co-owners of the company) http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/06/arlecapital-divestment-expro-idUKL3N0KG4D120140106
Could all go pear shaped, but in addition Spain doing better and Germans can easily afford to spend money at theme parks! Even Stork might be doing OK with a bit of growth in Europe.
Important message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse.
This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse, click here.
The content of the messages posted represents the opinions of the author, and does not represent the opinions of Interactive Investor Trading Limited or its affiliates and has not been approved or issued by Interactive Investor Trading Limited.
You should be aware that the other participants of the above discussion group are strangers to you and may make statements which may be misleading, deceptive or wrong.
Please remember that the value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment is not a guide to its performance in the future.
The discussion boards on this site are intended to be an information sharing forum and is not intended to address your particular requirements.
Whilst information provided on them can help with your investment research you need to consider carefully whether you should make (or refraining from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on investments you are interested in.
Participating in this forum cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you.