Should I read that last post as you get it wrong regularly but admit to getting it wrong rarely Hugh :-) ..................more seriously, fair play for admitting to getting it wrong .
Ps: I no longer hold a position her btw and so wont be posting here going forward ... generally I've gone more high risk stock picking in my bets now.. this has been kind to me though and I'm thankful for that... and I and I wouldn't be surprised if, in due course, it goes higher still.. but there's better risk reward for me to bet on out there right now, I feel..
As a long term holder of TCG buying in at an average of 35p some years ago and being on the roll a coaster up to 180 and back down to 80p (numbers close) i decided today that it was time to bag some profits - they may keep rising to 150p and beyond with some good news, however they could drift back to 110p
My own decision has been, probably badly, influenced by not seeing one TC advert on the tv while the competition seem to be brand building and going for it.....
Obviously with people looking at Turkey again, and the closure of coop stores they bought, profit growth fuelled by these two things could get the shares going as could a take over approach........
equally some bad news could send them skidding again
"Last week, I suggested the better we understand what firms are actually doing, the better we'll get at selecting good investments. I ended, though, with a quandary. Few companies lay out their strategies for everyone to see. A method of gathering ..."
"Thomas Cook Group (LSE:TCG)Many men go through life, wondering what they will next do to irritate their wife. A good idea led to a surprise 8/10 level of nuisance. When asked to quickly blend her soup, apparently using a high torque hand-drill is ..."
" Thomas Cook Group (LSE:TCG) Many men go through life, wondering what they will next do to irritate their wife. A good idea led to a surprise 8/10 level of nuisance. When asked to quickly blend her soup, apparently using a high torque ..."
"A blissful summer in which LSE:TCG:Thomas Cook shares rose by as much as 39% between June and September had suggested that all was well in the City, with the recovery story overseen by chief executive Peter Fankhauser.Unfortunately, a 9% reverse ..."
it went up a fair bit just ahead of results - back only to where it was a month or so back granted - perhaps in anticipation of very good results and now they turn out to be good/ish... etc...
and UK margins under some pressure from a not great base level is not ideal either..
thankfully I had sold down a good chunk of my position recently .. I added a small amount back at 107p this morning though... as I think the future for TCG will be relatively bright ( China and Expedia both appettising but Brexit/inflation less so..)
yes, those foreign parts have there selling points...
But our UK resorts do have there merits... if only people listened to locasl forecasts, which can reveal better weather forecasts than some of the more generalised national forecasts.
But its one area that the UK should work at... our resorts do need a make over to brighten up these places and add some new attractions...
no offence but South Shields, not quite up there with Nice, Monte Carlo and Acapulco or even Torremolinos if you like your places full of wide screen televisions and English pubs serving bangers and mash.
Just been to Omis in Croatia - very nice and reasonable too, under a quid for ice creams, which compares favourably with £4 a pop in France last year.
Still one of my best holiday's was1975, caravan site in Cornwall called Gannel View (could only see River Gannel through a telescope). The rain was so torrential that my dads Vauxhall Viva's windscreen wiper blew off when crossing Bodmin Moor
Well, Standard Life seem to think they are worth supporting at these levels, judging from recent RNS.
Ive taken some profits, but who knows..;; the Euro v Pound rate sees a strengthening Euro, so they could translate well on the profits side and dividend..
Also, the faqct that they have a strong base in Germany could be favourable..
I`m not sure the holiday trading numbers will be brilliant... we`ll see in a few weeks. Outlook statements will be read with keen attention, with issues surrounding Middle East and other destinations. But UK is not great for weather forecasts, although I had a nice break in South Shields recently.
Beaches are top notch, and sea front is now well presented. On a bright sunny day, this place is hard to beat. and plenty of sight seeing in Northumberland and Durham areas..
I've been involved since dark days too montu...
and sold out in 40's p when my average hold price was less than 20p and then it went up to 180 p and I kicked myself hard and a lot.. and then it came way back down and I got involved again.. so a rollercoaster ride where nothing is sure !
I've been invested in TCG through the dark days (lows) of 14p. I've topped up along the journey. My take is that the long recovery is not yet complete. Still work for the company to do but solid progress has been made. There's definitely more upside to come imho. The only big worry is Brexit and how that might impact the travel industry. There's a big question mark around that, so that might yet put the brakes on!
looking at the chart this share was 60 ish p a year ago .. so it has nearly doubled in that time..
and we've averaged one post a week here in that time.. the irony
(And on chart reflection I'm pleased to say that - arrogant - Hugh was more than somewhat wrong here,, and even if it comes off meaningfully from here STOPS would ensure people long here in the last year will make a very tidy profit, whatever)
I've maintained a mid sized position here and thankfully it's decently up.. and todays nice rise helps too..
I'm not sure why its up today but TUI was also .. so sector or stock analyst upgrade I'm guessing..
i'd promised myself I'd buy more if/when it reached 100p but now it kinda has I'm unsure.. indeed on past performance I wondering should I maybe sell some ..
Any charters out there with a view on whether this has moved into a new uptrend range now?
Generally, I think this company is incrementally turning itself around but the consumer backdrop will be tricky in 2018 imho.. so while I could say there is still plenty of room for upside here ..I'm not very sure on that ?
if I gets back towards 100 i'll top up in the hope of a new range established..
But Inflation will effect UK consumers pocket going forward and holiday spend may well suffer in the medium term.. so would take some profits if this moved up 20 per cent.. chance would be a fine thing perhaps,...
Another frustrating update from TCG, less so the actual results but more the tone. Continued progress but the air of imminent doom still surrounds them and Peter Frankhauser manages to talk down the SP with his cautious outlook. I seem to remember that Harriet Green was jettisoned for not understanding the business when the SP was 50% or more higher. Expect to see directors top up in the coming weeks. Ultimately a sale to Fosun is on the cards ... albeit some way off yet.
I think I read that almost every employee who held shares in RBS (the majority of about 150,000 total employees) took up the rights issue in 2008 at £20 a share (adjusting for the subsequent 1 for 10 consolidation). The shares are a bit over £2 today and at one stage dropped to £1, so down 90% if they held on and down 95% if they sold near the bottom.
Agree with you again and I only miss US's posts as I find it helps to hear what things are like "at the coal face". I worked for Sainsbury's many moons ago and even as a shelf stacker you have a "feel" for how the company's doing, although obviously I would never make an investment decision based solely on their recommendations for the very reasons you give.
I did say "TCG has been a dreadful investment for most of its shareholders" not all of its shareholders. That's a simple fact. If you go back say 3 years or 4 and imagine someone buying day one, another person the next and so on, then the vast majority of those people would be sitting on a loss if they had held. So the average holder has lost money.
I see to recall Uphill Struggle said he worked for TCG (or am I mixing him up with someone else). Employees are almost always the least able to see the direction of a share because they lack objectivity and their real knowledge of the company is usually confined to one very small part of a group of this size. certainly he has been proved to be wrong by events/price.
Good post HB, I for one am looking forward to the resumption of the dividend payment (Feb I believe?) and the disappearance of a certain Knight from this board!. I do miss the contribution of UphillStruggle (I think) though who provided a good insight into the company.
Like you I'm in here for the long term, but if people have made money trading it then good luck to them. I suspect that we will see some more volatility over the next couple of years as the EU situation and the death throes of IS sort themselves out, so the day traders may well return.
Overall though I'm happy with the company and the moves to exploit the Chinese market etc.
I disagree that this has been a dreadful investment, it all depends on your time frame, I was "lucky" enough to get some at 13p (although my average is just back to breakeven). Hopefully the dividends will do the hard work from now on and the company will be able to maintain and increase them going forward.
I'm still here but shares are long term investments, best judged over sensible time horizons and don't warrant comments every day on relatively minor changes in value and nor does anyone here benefit from being exposed to such vacuous drivel, invariably "contributed" by individuals whose knowledge of the company or the shares or equities in general would not fill one page of paper. Empty vessels etc
It's pretty obvious that TCG has been a dreadful investment for most of its shareholders (and a cracker for any who have shorted). Given continued newsflow about trouble in various parts of the world, currency and a not very impressive management team, I don't see that changing but could be wrong.
Admitting one could be wrong is not something we ever see from the "this share is headed for [inset improbable and random number of your choice here] this week" brigade who will just keep repeating their stupid mantra regardless of things like facts.
Bring back Hugh and Sir Singh I say ! ( I'm guessing Sir Singh got bored and sold out a while back in early 70's and Hugh has gone on a course..... in depomposing .. not a word I know, but it should be :-) )
A chart and bit of TA would be good as I struggle to get my head round that kind of stuff.
As for the peace and quite, I suspect the day traders have moved onto more profitable trades leaving us "boring" buy & hold shareholders to wait for the dividends to increase over the next few years (fingers crossed!)
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