Trends and Targets for 21/07/2017
FTSE FOR FRIDAY, THE DOW, THE S&P (FTSE:UKX) The job of being a goat-herd, high on a hill, is fraught with danger and loneliness, along with the ever present echo of that Mary Poppins woman singing her heart out. And as always, nearing the top of a hill, a whimsical goat-herds thought turn to the markets... We let something slip the other day when examining the results produced against both the DOW JONES and the S&P.
Each index is approaching an uncomfortable point for us, that exquisite moment when we run out of big picture numbers as the price gets to the top of its particular hill. Historically, both the DOW & SP500 have tended play fair as they encroach on these perfect moments in time, either choosing to skip above the awkward number - something the SP500 has 'form' for - or retreating in a panic such as witnessed recently with the DOW and its mystery 200 point droop on the 18th July.
We generally call these levels "stutter points", areas in the movement table where a market will generally be forced to fluff around while generating impetus for the next movement. There is often a lot of truth in the saying, "it's got to go down before it goes up" but this time the problem is a little more vivid.
If the S&P exceeds 2502, we literally run out of numbers whereas the DOW needs better 22,129 to send our software into meltdown. When we realised the US markets were approaching this critical level, about the only advice available was to suggest "Go Short & Wait - with a tight stop".
To dwell on the S&P first, if it approaches 2502 (in fact, it's already pretty damned close at 2479) our proposal suggests a short position with a stop as tight as you want. As for the drop target, 2425 makes a lot of visual sense but we're almost guessing if we rely on the visual impression from a chart! The reasoning which justifies a tight stop - say 2505 - is if we're wrong and the index makes it above 2502, a bold new trend is developing, one which we're ill equipped to map (currently).
The DOW JONES is a slightly different kettle of fish. We exhaust our movement table above 22129 but would suggest a wider stop, perhaps just above 22,200, as this index has a plethora of opening "gaps" which foul our calculations. In terms of drop targets, the visuals suggest somewhere around 19,500 should prove about right. Or even 17,500! As with the SP500, we're guessing as absolutely nothing currently indicates such a plunge other than our software throwing a strop above 22129 points.
So, we've presented some pretty attractive drop levels, it would be a shame if we didn't permit reality to intrude. While we eschew "fundamentals" and "technicals", it'd be silly to expect the markets to plunge without cause. We anticipate the index' approaching our target levels and essentially mucking around for a while until a sufficient excuse appears to justify a drop.
Isn't it nice to know the index' are poised, awaiting some politician saying or doing something stupid? Perhaps even now, the politician is high on a hill, amorously chasing a goat while a photographer lurks in a bush.
There's also the risk nothing actually happens to justify calamity and instead, we'll experience a few months of small movements which, when added together, generate sufficient oomph for a new upward trend. If the markets were a share, we'd be confident some degree of rewind is coming but even then, sometimes incredible patience is required.
The chart below is for Intercontinental Hotels Group (LSE:IHG), a share we monitor privately for clients. We'd a Big Picture target of 45 quid, something it achieved fairly recently. Since then, the price has neither beaten our 45 quid nor collapsed. We think it will drop, if only to generate future strength. But the share isn't really doing anything other than messing around between 42 quid and 45 quid. Perhaps this shall prove to be the fate awaiting the DOW & SP500.
Our money is on the goat.
FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Now we've let the cat out the bag above with an expected calamity which might not happen... how's the politically poisoned FTSE looking? Oddly, it doesn't entirely stink as above 7495 looks capable of an astoundingly useless 7508 points.
What will really interest us comes if 7508 bettered, due to a new tier of numbers entering the fray which makes a secondary upper target of 7578 points pretty hard to avoid. If triggered, the index requires slither below 7393 too utterly cancel the growth potential, quite a wide stop we admit but when we refine the numbers, the tightest comes in at 7425 points.
So what happens if 7425 breaks?
It looks like 7380 becomes possible, perhaps even 7337 points as a secondary.
We're not entirely comfortable with these drop potentials and would submit 7400 as a safer drop trigger.
Have a good weekend.
|Time Issued||Market||Price At Issue||Short Entry||Fast Exit||Slow Exit||Stop||Long Entry||Fast Exit||Slow Exit||Stop||Prior|
|8:38:44PM||FTSE.||Exact target met at 7504!|
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. 'CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today's updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at [email protected] Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through...
Section One - Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two - Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:BT.A British Telecom** **LSE:EZJ EasyJet** **LSE:IAG British Airways** **LSE:IQE IQE** **LSE:LLOY Lloyds Grp.** **LSE:MKS Marks and Spencer** **LSE:OXIG Oxford Instruments** **LSE:SL. Standard Life** **LSE:STAN Standard Chartered** **LSE:TAN Tanfield** **LSE:TCG Thomas Cook Group** **LSE:UKOG UK Oils and Gas** **
Updated charts published on : British Telecom, EasyJet, British Airways, IQE, Lloyds Grp., Marks and Spencer, Oxford Instruments, Standard Life, Standard Chartered, Tanfield, Thomas Cook Group, UK Oils and Gas,
LSE:BT.ALSE:BT.A British Telecom. Close Mid-Price: 310.8 Percentage Change: + 1.85% Day High: 310.95 Day Low: 305.2
Bettering 313p can probably be taken seriously, allowing for 327 / 356p.
LSE:EZJ EasyJet Close Mid-Price: 1334 Percentage Change: -5.92% Day High: 1444 Day Low: 1314
Above 1444 will provoke an initial 1470 with secondary now at 1554p where ........
LSE:IAG British Airways Close Mid-Price: 595 Downtrend now: 612.763 Uptrend now: 0 Percentage Change: -3.88% Day High: 624 Day Low: 592.5
It didn't take them long to move this to tourist class, probably as part o ........
LSE:IQELSE:IQE IQE. Close Mid-Price: 112.25 Percentage Change: + 32.06% Day High: 107.5 Day Low: 87.25
Target Met. Further movement above 108 points at 115 next with secondary 1 ........
LSE:LLOYLSE:LLOY Lloyds Grp.. Close Mid-Price: 68.69 Percentage Change: + 0.90% Day High: 68.99 Day Low: 67.94
Target Met. The delicacy with which this was manipulated to close below a ........
LSE:MKSLSE:MKS Marks and Spencer. Close Mid-Price: 331.5 Percentage Change: + 0.48% Day High: 335.1 Day Low: 329.3
Target Met. Near term betting 336 looks like ^up to 342 will prove hard to ........
LSE:OXIGLSE:OXIG Oxford Instruments. Close Mid-Price: 1100 Percentage Change: + 2.90% Day High: 1117 Day Low: 1060
Above 1117 still looks up to 1142 next with secondary, if bettered, at a l ........
LSE:SL.LSE:SL. Standard Life. Close Mid-Price: 428.3 Percentage Change: + 1.16% Day High: 428.3 Day Low: 421.1
Above 429p signals oomph to 437 with secondary if bettered, at 452p. Visua ........
LSE:STANLSE:STAN Standard Chartered. Close Mid-Price: 825 Percentage Change: + 1.84% Day High: 827.6 Day Low: 809.5
From the point at which this closed, it placed a toe on the rung for a dis ........
LSE:TAN Tanfield Close Mid-Price: 14.12 Percentage Change: -2.59% Day High: 14 Day Low: 12.75
Something a bit crooked is going on here with this suffering a mid session ........
LSE:TCGLSE:TCG Thomas Cook Group. Close Mid-Price: 99.95 Percentage Change: + 0.05% Day High: 100.3 Day Low: 98.25
Above 101p now points at 105 next with secondary a longer term 127p. The p ........
LSE:UKOGLSE:UKOG UK Oils and Gas. Close Mid-Price: 4.95 Percentage Change: + 4.76% Day High: 5.3 Day Low: 4.42
Target Met. This should prove interesting as a mid-price above 5.35 takes ........
*** End of "Updated Today" comments on shares. Listed below are those where commentary remains valid.
Click Epic to jump to share:LSE:AFC AFC Energy** **LSE:AGM Applied Graph.** **LSE:AMER Amerisur** **LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY** **LSE:BDEV Barrett Devs** **LSE:BLVN Bowleven** **LSE:BP. BP PLC** **LSE:BPC Bahamas Pet** **LSE:CAR Carclo** **LSE:CASP Caspian** **LSE:CBUY Cloudbuy** **LSE:CEY Centamin** **LSE:CLLN CARILLION PLC** **LSE:DGE Diageo** **LSE:EME Empyrean** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:FGP Firstgroup** **LSE:FOXT Foxtons** **LSE:FRES Fresnillo** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra** **LSE:HIK Hikma** **LSE:HL. Hargreaves Lansdown** **LSE:HSBA HSBC** **LSE:HUR Hurrican Energy** **LSE:IEH Intelligent energy** **LSE:IGAS Igas Energy** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group** **LSE:IPF International Personal Finance** **LSE:ITV ITV** **LSE:KAZ Kaz Minerals** **LSE:LMI LonMin** **LSE:MONI Monitise** **LSE:MOS Mobile Streams** **LSE:NG. National Glug** **LSE:NIPT Premaltha** **LSE:OPG OPG Power Ventures** **LSE:PMG Parkmead** **LSE:PMO Premier** **LSE:POG Petrop etc** **LSE:POL Polo Resources** **LSE:POLY Polymetal** **LSE:PPC President Energy** **LSE:QFI Quadrise** **LSE:RBS Royal Bank Scot** **LSE:RED REDT** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **LSE:RMG Royal Male** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **LSE:RTHM Rythm One** **LSE:SBRY Sainsbury** **LSE:SCLP Scancell** **LSE:SDY Speedyhire** **LSE:SGP Supergroup** **LSE:SHP Shire** **LSE:SUMM Summit** **LSE:SXX Sirius Mins** **LSE:TLW Tullow** **LSE:TSCO Tesco** **LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey** **LSE:VEC Vectura** **LSE:VED Vedanta** **LSE:VOD Vodafone** **LSE:VOG VICTORIA** **LSE:WTG Watchstone** **LSE:ZOL Zoldav** **
Many thanks for taking the time to read this and good luck for today. Please feel free to mention us after something goes right!
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Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Trends and Targets Ltd, Shareprice, or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
About the author
Trends and Targets - a new name, but the same old team of analysts with their magic secret software! Formerly Precogz, they provide Interactive Investor’s clients with daily movement forecasts before trading commences, covering nearly 50 of the most popular traded shares.
Note: The analysts cannot give financial advice or strategy solutions. If you want to get hold of them, their email is: [email protected]