Berkeley Group Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9650985 ')" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18098956

Crocodile tears from House Builder institutions as The National Housing Federation and the Chartered Institute of Housing employs Shelter to front claim that the Government isn’t doing enough.

It may be true that we do not have enough housing in certain areas of the UK and Shelter are there doing great and valued work, but to say it’s the Governments fault is a little rich.

The House Building Industry has been helped out by numerous successive governments and it is still is through policy and tax savings, whether it be zero rated VAT, stamp duty holidays, planning policies, etc. – the list is endless.

Really it is time for developers to do some navel gazing and utilise the Billions that developers have in the bank to put it right.

This could be done through numerous ways maybe taking less ROCE, which is really short termism, but would fit into their present quick profit structure or maybe they could bring in business to developments and build up the areas long term wealth to sustain the build out of the development. Bringing in business could be achieved through direct investment in the business i.e. shareholding, commercial funding, etc. or even cross shareholding, this would give long term commitment to development and area, so giving confidence in the proposed development.

Maybe all large planning applications should include a section on ‘Long Term Wealth Benefit of the Proposed Development’, would bring to an area.

Stop hiding behind the petty coat of Shelter and tarnishing their good name and be proactive.

By redbeard101 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=9650985&action=detail Thu, 17 May 2012 08:32:00 GMT redbeard101 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9618376
We are propping up a market through the government policies for the past 30 years, when we should be looking more to manufacturing and our export industries. The government should create a Business and Commercial Bank out RBS to build our export industries.

The Housing Market needs a minimum 25% managed reduction in many areas to rebalance and enable the UK population wage to be realigned to property prices. We cannot sustain a housing market as it is; otherwise we are building up yet another bubble that will burst.

What is the proportion of the average wage to the mortgage? 12 or more times for a 2 bed house in the cheaper parts of London and the southeast even with a 20% deposit. This is existing stock; new build carries a very high premium percentage.

It is little wonder why first time buyers find it hard to get on the property ladder a potential blip in the market in 3/5 years’ time? Drawing down on the bank of mum and dad will only go so far; even with Government help of duty holidays.

Maybe we should adopt that London Borough option of shipping everyone northwards or the relocation of the BBC to Salford. Yet this will only drive up the market in that region. But before you do that we need some sort of industry to employ these new residents and brings’ wealth into to that area, rather than state jobs redistributing Government money. Otherwise we will create an imbalance society.

True supply and demand is a guiding factor, but not alone. Government intervention through tax and policy has a significant bearing on this short-sighted market factor. The recent stamp duty changes and relief has had an effect on house prices and share prices. High net-worth people can’t believe how cheap it is to buy and live over here and not just there it is across the property bands. Then there are the global factors, which to date has had a major effect on mortgages availability and LTV criteria.

Have we got an imbalance economy based on property prices; particularly homes? Many entrepreneurs and business people do, which is creating a burden on the population and draining money from the economy and so stifling the growth of sustainable GDP. Therefore we need weaning off through managing increases in property tax graduated over the band levels including council tax.

So do we need a business and commercial bank, well yes, to invest in the business/industry across the country to enable the population at large to buy an affordable home. To that end we need to make other investments more attractive for cash rich people and companies (including developers).
By redbeard101 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=9618376&action=detail Tue, 08 May 2012 16:01:00 GMT redbeard101 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9312470 Saturday February 18,2012
http://bit.ly/A6WKv8 By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=9312470&action=detail Sat, 18 Feb 2012 07:22:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9311910 By Bryce Elder
http://on.ft.com/wdZIlH By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=9311910&action=detail Fri, 17 Feb 2012 21:28:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9311750 By GEOFF FOSTER
9:28 PM on 17th February 2012
http://bit.ly/zgr1hX By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=9311750&action=detail Fri, 17 Feb 2012 20:42:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9053276 ')" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be3790c8-2288-11e1-acdc-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1g4r9gz00

December 9, 2011 6:03 pm
Bellway reveals further evidence of recovery

By Michael Stothard

Bellway has reported rises in its average selling price and reservation rates over the autumn period in a further sign that UK property markets are stabilising.

The UK housebuilder said that the number of people reserving houses with Bellway over the four months to 30 November had risen 14 per cent from the same period a year ago in spite of worries over the eurozone debt crisis and a flatlining UK economy.


Alistair Leitch, finance director, said he was slightly surprised by the strength of the results but suggested that potential buyers were finally coming to the view that house prices were unlikely to fall any further and so “now was as good a time to buy as any”.

The statement follows news that rival housebuilder Persimmon had reported a 19 per cent rise in house sales since the start of September. Elsewhere in the sector, Barratt reported average selling price up 7 per cent over the four months to November while Berkeley reported a 21 per cent increase in homes sold in the first half.

Analysts said the housebuilding sector was now in recovery mode after years on the back foot: “For the first time since Northern Rock housebuilders are in control of their own destinies,” said Mike Bessell, analyst at Evolution Securities

The Newcastle-based group also reported that average selling prices rose 7 per cent in the period. This was not due to house price inflation, however, but because of a change in product mix as the company attempts to sell more expensive properties in London and the south-east.

The company’s order book at the period end was £458m, ahead of £440m a year ago. It spent £71m on land in the period and acquired about 1,400 plots. This left Bellway with a net debt of £17m.

The group also announced the renewal of £150m of bank facilities “with no significant changes to banking covenants”. Analysts said this highlighted how credit facilities remain available to healthy corporate borrowers.

Bellway said it welcomed government efforts to stimulate the housing market, including the release of government-owned land to housebuilders and help for first-time buyers. But it said their results would hinge on consumer confidence rather than government intervention. “The outcome for the full year will be dependent primarily upon consumer confidence, especially during the spring selling season.” By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=9053276&action=detail Fri, 09 Dec 2011 21:03:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9027704 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8931846/Berkeley-boss-welcomes-Government-measures-to-support-mortgages.html

Tony Pidgley, the veteran boss of housing developer Berkeley Group, has called new Government proposals to support mortgages and overhaul the planning system "the most significant changes to the housing industry for a generation".

"Locations in the best areas of London continue to be in demand from both international and UK domestic buyers who are attracted by the stability of the London market, the relative value in sterling against other currencies and the desire to hold property in one of the world's great cities," Mr Pidgley said.

By Graham Ruddick, Property and industrycrrespondent6:47PM GMT 02 Dec 2011

Mr Pidgley said the Coalition's mortgage indemnity scheme, which will protect banks against losses on a mortgage, should make finance more available for potential buyers and boost housebuilding.
The Berkeley chairman also said proposals to simplify planning rules "addresses many of the obstacles within the current planning system" while also ensuring "powerful local engagement, decision making and benefits for local communities".
He made the comments as Berkeley, which focuses on upmarket regeneration schemes in London, increased pre-tax profits 64pc to £101m despite global sovereign debt concerns.
Profits were boosted by the sale of its 51pc stake in a student scheme for Imperial College for £31m.
"Locations in the best areas of London continue to be in demand from both international and UK domestic buyers who are attracted by the stability of the London market, the relative value in sterling against other currencies and the desire to hold property in one of the world's great cities," Mr Pidgley said.

Berkeley is pushing ahead with further housing developments next year, including a rare new residential development in Belgravia. The company sold 1,506 homes in the period, a 21pc increase on the previous year. Shares in Berkeley soared by 93p, or 7.3pc, to £13.60. By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=9027704&action=detail Fri, 02 Dec 2011 21:38:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9025580 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2011/dec/02/berkeley-london-house-demand By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=9025580&action=detail Fri, 02 Dec 2011 12:42:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8867666 http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/smart-investor-are-berkeleys-foundations-solid/a534467/full


by Smart Investor on Oct 21, 2011 at 04:00


With the homebuilding sector having taken a battering, Smart Investor considers whether now's the time to buy into Berkeley Group Holdings (BKGH.L).

Which sector's missing from the FTSE 100?

Run your magnifying glass down the FTSE 100 and you may notice that a sector appears to be missing. It's a sector we're all connected to, and one that politicians, investors and virtually all people above the age of 21 obsess over. The sector is housing and, as a result of substantial share price falls, there are no homebuilders listed on the FTSE 100.

This is not wholly surprising. After all, we are still enduring a banking crisis and very slow growth, so in spite of ludicrously low mortgage rates, many people’s desire for a house purchase is backed up by little or no capital. In turn, house builders are unlikely to be enjoying the level of sales that they were pre-credit crunch, meaning their bottom lines (and share prices) subsequently suffer.

Of course, as a value investor it is my aim to buy low and sell high, so now seems to be an opportune moment to focus on house builders. In this article I'm going to turn my attention on Berkeley Group Holdings (BKGH.L).

Berkeley under the spotlight

The company was founded in 1976 by current chairman Tony Pidgeley, and specialised in executive homes. It has since branched out into larger developments incorporating mixed-use schemes, apartments and refurbishments. Along the way it developed other brands such as St James and St Edward, joint ventures with Thames Water and Prudential respectively.

Today it employs 1,000 people and has a market capitalisation of £1.55 billion. A point to note is that it operates mainly in the south east of the country, where prices are higher and demand is, arguably, more resilient.

Indeed, 'resilient' has been the byword for the firm’s performance over the past five years. Net profit of £135 million in 2007 dipped to £79 million in 2010, but recovered slightly to £94 million in 2011. While some rivals posted losses as the credit crunch started to bite, Berkeley Group stayed in the black, albeit at a reduced level. This is significant because it showed the business to be one that could remain profitable throughout the ‘bust’ part of the economic cycle.

Return on equity of 10.5% in the most recent financial year is acceptable but not impressive. Over the past five years, return on equity has averaged 13.4%, which is reasonably good when you consider the volatile trading conditions that the company has faced.

Lack of dividends

However, in spite of remaining profitable the company has maintained its zero-dividend policy – it has not paid a dividend since 2004. This is disappointing, and potentially rules the company out for an investor seeking income. Of course, a recent announcement that the company is to return cash to shareholders via dividends at keystone dates over the next 10 years is encouraging, although with a track record of no dividends it perhaps should not be seen as a guarantee.

As for free cash flow, this has averaged £90 per annum over the past five years versus net profit of £106 million per annum over the same period. This minor difference is quite acceptable, and shows that free cash flow is perfectly reasonable.

Turning to viability, debt has been kept low throughout the past five years. Current gearing using the debt/equity ratio is 24%, which is low and cuts the company some slack with regards to the moderate return on equity. In addition, double-digit interest coverage shows that the company has ample headroom when servicing its loans.

Although Berkeley cannot command an economic moat of the type of some FTSE 100 peers such as those in healthcare, it nevertheless enjoys some form of moat in the form of land banks. By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=8867666&action=detail Fri, 21 Oct 2011 11:52:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8693610 9:04 am by Jon Mainwaring
http://bit.ly/p5TdVN


Analysts at two City brokers believe that recent weakness shown by shares in UK house builders present investors with opportunities to snap up bargains in the sector.
On Friday, both Liberum Capital and Numis Securities released research in which they argue that UK house builders, as a sector, are undervalued. Liberum believes Barratt Developments, Berkeley and Bovis all rate as ‘buys’.

Analysts at two City brokers believe that recent weakness shown by shares in UK house builders present investors with opportunities to snap up bargains in the sector.

In a research note titled ‘UK Housebuilders: Slowdown or meltdown?’, Liberum Capital said that it believed the recent selloff of house builders presents a buying opportunity since the market appears to be discounting a very poor outturn.

“We think that a reasonable slowdown scenario is baked into valuations already, which means that only a financial meltdown would put current valuations at risk, in our view,” said Liberum, which added that its top picks remain Barratt Developments (LON:BDEV), Berkeley Group Holdings (LON:BKG) and Bovis Homes Group (LON:BVS).

Liberum said that house builders’ shares had performed poorly in August as investors’ memories of 2008 are still fairly fresh. “But we think there are major differences between now and then, especially that total sector debt has fallen from £3.8 billion to £400 million,” the broker added.

Meanwhile, although Liberum estimates an economic slowdown may cause another 10 per cent hit to balance sheets, sector valuations already take this into account, it said.

In its own update on the UK house building sector, Numis Securities also noted that sector shares had been hit hard during the recent market selloff in spite of sector news flow showing a progressive improvement over the course of the year.

“This sell-down against the backdrop of falling debt has led to the house building sector’s enterprise value falling back toward the lows last seen at the height of the recession,” the broker stated in a note, also published on Friday. “In our view this fails to reflect the improving risk profile due to improvements in the macro (mortgage lending, interest rates and stable house prices) and micro backdrop (lower debt, higher margins, refinanced banking facilities and more appropriate covenants).

On this basis we feel the current weakness presents a good buying opportunity.”

Numis said that it had reviewed the sector’s enterprise value over the course of the recession and this showed that the market is now approaching the lows last seen in early 2009, when the housing market was still in freefall.

“The enterprise value of the seven pure house builders now stands at £6.687 billion, which is only 5.5 per cent above the low recorded in the nadir of the recession. This is a function of both recent share price weakness, but also reflects the significant reduction in debt from both internal pay-down and equity issuance,” said the broker, pointing out that Taylor Wimpey had debt of £1.7 billion in June 2008 but now has just £170 million.

As far as the “macro backdrop” is concerned, Numis said that although general market uncertainty “remains high”, the key variables associated with the housing sector have shown a dramatic improvement since early 2009. “Mortgage lending has improved from 27,000 approvals for house purchase in November 2008 to 48,000 in June 2011,” said Numis. “House prices have shown a flat profile over the last 18 months whereas in the 18 months leading up to the previous low EV, house prices had fallen 20 per cent and we still declining.”

Furthermore, the broker pointed out, interest rate expectations have shifted and rates are not expected to rise until well into 2012 at the earliest, which alongside the strong level of rental growth recently, “means it is cheaper to buy tha By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=8693610&action=detail Mon, 29 Aug 2011 08:22:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8455710
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (BKG.LN), the homebuilder, Monday said Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) increased its holding in the company to 13% and now holds 15.9 million shares.

Shares at 1534 GMT up 44 pence, or 3.5%, at 1298 pence valuing the company at GBP1.70 billion.

By Peter Evans, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-20-7842-9308; peter.evans@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 27, 2011 11:35 ET (15:35 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=8455710&action=detail Mon, 27 Jun 2011 15:41:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8448250 Created: 24 June 2011 Written by: Lee Wild
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Companies/ByEvent/Results/Analysis/article/20110624/8c43e934-9e73-11e0-b8c5-00144f2af8e8/Berkeley-pledges-17bn-divi.jsp

Housebuilder Berkeley has again shown why its focus on London and the South East makes sense, and this strong position underpins a promise to return £1.7bn, or £13 a share, in dividends over the next decade to loyal shareholders.
Half of all new Berkeley homes were bought by the kind of UK and overseas investors for whom mortgage availability just isn't a problem. Indeed, international buyers lured to the capital by the weak pound are behind much of the 25.5 per cent increase in cash due on forward sales - now at £813.5m.
Berkeley is also sitting on a huge land bank after management began buying up land at the bottom of the cycle in February 2009 – it's up 13 per cent in just the last year to over 27,000 plots. Understanding the need to realise some of that value, while also retaining cash to buy land and maintain cash flow, means the first dividend payout won't take place until the end of September 2015, when the company hopes to return 434p. Two further instalments of 433p will follow, one in 2018 and another in 2021, although it's believed there's wriggle room to make smaller payments sooner.
A net increase of 15 site openings this year helped drive revenue up almost a quarter. Berkeley sold 2,544 homes at an average of £271,000 each, an improvement on last year's 2,201 at £263,000. Although a rise in sales of cheaper homes kept prices below the land bank average. The operating margin was up 1 percentage point to 18.3 per cent and, while land purchases and share buybacks reduced net cash by £275m, a £450m bank facility - £200m of which expires in 2013 and the rest in 2016 – provides plenty of firepower for land acquisitions.
Broker UBS expects a pre-tax profit of £160m in 2012, giving EPS of 89.16p.
BERKELEY (BKG)
ORD PRICE: 1,240p MARKET VALUE: £ 1.63bn
TOUCH: 1,239-1,240p 12-MONTH HIGH: 1,262p LOW: 746p
DIVIDEND YIELD: nil PE RATIO: 17
NET ASSET VALUE: 708p NET CASH: £42m
Year to 30 Apr Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2007 918 188 113 nil*
2008 991 194 114 nil*
2009 702 120 71.3 nil
2010 615 110 60.0 nil
2011 743 136 72.1 nil
% change +21 +23 +20 -
Ex-div: -
Payment: -
*Excludes special dividends to shareholders
Guide to the terms used in IC results tables.
More analysis of company results
IC VIEW:
GoodValue
Berkeley boasts an enviable position in the resilient London market and the shares have doubled since the depths of the recession - but remain some way short of their peak during the glory days of 2007. And, while a forward PE of 14 is pricey for the sector, Berkeley's prospects leave that premium rating more than deserved. Long-term good value. By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=8448250&action=detail Sat, 25 Jun 2011 06:06:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.8443211 ')" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.davy.ie/LR?id=1038
Davy Research

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Berkeley Group
(BKG LN)
Strong set of FY2011 results; return of capital plan announced
24 June 2011
Killian Murphy
Closing Price: 1131p Rating: Outperform 08/04/11 Previous: Neutral 30/06/09
FACTS: Berkeley Group has released its FY2011 results.

ANALYSIS: EPS was ahead of our forecast (15.7%) and marginally above market expectations (2%). This was driven by higher- than-anticipated revenue due to the strong level of completions (2,544 versus our expectation of 2,311) and average selling price increasing to £271,000 versus £263,000 in FY2010 and our forecast of £268,250 (which reflects the resilience of the London market and positive mix benefits). In addition, margins were also better than anticipated, rising by 100bps year-on-year to 18.3%. The group's comments on the housing market are in-line with those expressed by other market commentators (such as RISI) and highlight the continued strength of demand in London. Management has announced that following a strategic review it has decided to return £1.7bn to shareholders over the next ten years (a similar proposal was suggested pre-downturn, but management decided to invest in its landbank instead).

DAVY VIEW: Following these very strong set of results we will be significantly increasing our forecasts. We remain comfortable with our 'outperform' rating. We believe that Berkeley is best placed in the sector due to its strong balance sheet and significant exposure to the London market. By SpikeyDT ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=8443211&action=detail Fri, 24 Jun 2011 08:22:00 GMT SpikeyDT tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.7388233
http://www.digitallook.com/news/3880834/Sunday_tips_round-up_Davis_Service_Compass_Berkeley....html By carlsmillie ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=7388233&action=detail Sun, 05 Dec 2010 20:37:00 GMT carlsmillie tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.6289114
Just ploughed my profits into Lookers(LOOK),
as I spotted the CEO buying 300,000 share at 59 pence.
And he already held nearly 2Million.

LOOK has their IMS next Tuesday. By EssentialInvestor ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BKG.L&display=discussion&id=6289114&action=detail Wed, 05 May 2010 11:06:00 GMT EssentialInvestor