Man Group Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9674152 Add to that, this years cost savings of $75m or 4.1c per share.
Add to that, earnings from acquired FRM, 2.0c

Total 16.46c or 10.48p.

P.E 7, a buy sign for me, especially when dividend is at least 7% as well. So I will keep buying. My average is now 78p, with plenty of fire power left.
By fraction ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9674152&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 17:14:00 GMT fraction tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9674038
Yes its getting very hot down here. I wouldn't say I was comfortable, but in a zen like state knowing that this will reverse at some point.

I was in exactly this situation with Bank of America back in December. It was "all over" according to many pundits/bloggers. It then just up and doubled in price on a very minor catalyst. A lot about the current situation at EMG reminds me of that..charts/sentiment etc.

Man is still profitable. All this "AHL is doomed stuff" is overblown. In the last update the FUM for Man group as a whole was up (performance outweighed redemptions). A good point was also made earlier about where else do people go? Paulson lost 50% of his FUM last year, but he kept the vast majority of clients.


Will probably add again in the 60s, if/when we get there. By Tiberius3 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9674038&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 16:29:00 GMT Tiberius3 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673979
are you sticking with it?

you make a good point here and I have tried to allude to it a few time...and I think someone else made the point below as well...

when markets fall then it tends to be the high beta or speculative stocks that are hit. but they are good to trade because they are also the ones which rally the most in thr bull swings...I fondly remember dear old Xstrata during the 2009 rally - simply buy on the dips and sell on the rally's and life was sweet.

however, this is not the case with EMG - I am not sure it is just the down-swing whipping boy in the same sense as the cyclical stocks, it's actually worse.

this goes further down than most in a risk off scenario, but it does not get all the gains of a risk on when sentiment changes.

who the heck wants a stock that underperforms in both up and ddown markets?!?!?!

I think the only possible rationale to buy this stock are twofold:
1. pure speculation on a takeover come hell or high water
2. a recovery play - i.e. at some point a combination of diversifaction and ahl recovery will come into play - I think this is a possibility but I am waiting, Anthony Bolton style, for a case for the change - FRM is not it.

Still puzzled why people are talking about trend and chart analysis to trade this stock, or frankly any stock at the minute when the markets are clearly not trending - that is why ahl is in such a bad way!!!

you will find me at: baffledoutofmymind.com

you would be better of with a MacDonalds burger than a MACD cross over right now!!


By alphatrooper ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673979&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 16:07:00 GMT alphatrooper tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673856
We've had a lot of these moves down lately and Man Group has joined in with every one of them. Often more dramatically. However this time it stayed put.

A small mercy or an omen, time will tell.

PS: Euro summit tonight. Expectations of anything useful are low. But historically markets tend to rally off on whatever "We'll solve it this time" type press release comes out of the meeting.. By Tiberius3 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673856&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 15:39:00 GMT Tiberius3 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673842
'...And last we’ve Man Group. Sigh… What’s happened here? Man’s like a TBTF bank now – a great business (GLG Partners, in this instance), sullied by a black-box business (AHL). And the rot set in a long time ago – reminds me of a duck gliding by, everything was still looking good above-surface but (down below) the paddling became increasingly frantic. In Man’s case, they lunged for salvation through acquisition. While GLG Partners is a marvelous hedge fund firm, their acquisition by Man never made much sense. Then Man purchased Ore Hill, and yesterday we see them adding another $8.0 billion of AUM through the acquisition of FRM Holdings!

Years back, their greed on fees was the first big warning sign for me. Even now, despite a tough year or two, fees are at 2.43% of AUM. btw I’m just talking about management fees! In a really good year, performance fees would jack this up north of 5.0% of AUM… And the acquisitions actually diluted fees, which used to be at a 3.0%+ level. I didn’t see what was coming for Man – but I’d no interest in betting on such unprecedented fees being maintained long-term. And I certainly don’t think they’ve earned (for years now) the returns needed to really justify those kind of fees. In fact, I suspect any inherent performance advantage they had walked out the door when David Harding (the H in AHL) left to form Winton Capital.

Their continued success afterwards just highlights the strength & power of a truly remarkable sales & marketing organization. But I think that’s also their ultimate weakness… I always got the feeling all management ever discussed was sales & redemptions, not performance (unless it was negative, of course, as is now the case)! Anyway, I could never figure out how to evaluate/buy into AHL as an investment theme. It’s a true black-box business and, like the banks, the market’s love affair is now well & truly over. Analysts are now relying on M&A values as a back-stop – we’ve even heard the ludicrous suggestion Man’s only worth its liquidation value!

This highlights a serious industry problem – the banks were deep-pocketed buyers for years. For obvious reasons (not least the Volcker rule), these buyers are now gone – for years to come… Man rumours circulating (even some months ago!) that JP Morgan (JPM:US) would acquire them were patently absurd! I’m sure we’ll hear from the media about all these ‘missing buyers’ at some point, but I suspect it’s already baked into the sector’s under-valuation.

Yes, there’s significant Man upside from current levels, but I’m still uncomfortable with AHL & the business focus/model. If only GLG comprised the majority/all of AUM, I’d dive right in! I guess this illustrates again that assessing all opportunities in a sector shouldn’t prompt one to automatically load up on the highest upside potential stock(s). Of course not! The greatest upside is inevitably offered by the most difficult/opaque/risky stocks & companies. Sure, one of these stocks is worth a bet occasionally, but usually (by comparison) a superior stock/company with just half the upside potential will still offer the better risk/reward proposition…'

Read this and more in my latest writeup on alternative asset managers on my Wexboy blog.

Cheers,

Wexboy
By Wexboy ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673842&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 15:37:00 GMT Wexboy tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673836 TW

Sorry about the typo. Meant 'a double bottom', not 2 double bottoms.

Agreed on the wedge. Still think it is a very close call though. The market seems to be pressing down hard on this stock.

Either way, this is a trade only trench warfare until we see something to break the trend!

F1

By FABIUS1 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673836&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 15:35:00 GMT FABIUS1 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673620 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673620&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 14:48:00 GMT alex2069 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673511
just to confirm as to why I went long this morning....

take a look at the following hourly chart...

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotshow&u=KOyx5L+2240HsRVapDkxacuUqN0AxCxDWDO5OrdXFuQ=&symbol=L%5EEMG

Comments

Acknowledge Fabius' double bottom today, you can see it on the hourly candles...

Reason for going long is that we "kissed" the bottom of the lower descending trendline initially in the first hour, and support held, and then went long a little later when this was tested again and held.

However, we are of course only looking at the hourly chart and so the falling wedge pattern has only formed over the shorter term.

Heres the worked example for reference...

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_revers

MACD could be on the turn towards positive, and williams %r has bottomed for now.

We may see a rise over next few days, up to the upper declining trendline which cuts around 75/76, so may only look on my trade as short term, assuming of course we do not see a further decline, stop is at 69.75p but looking for +76p.....we shall see.

TW By Triple Witcher ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673511&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 14:24:00 GMT Triple Witcher tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673460 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673460&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 14:10:00 GMT Zedlitz tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673362 Re the charts, for what is worth, there were 2 definite double bottoms today (clearly visible on the 1 week Hi-Lo charts). No basis for anything concrete given the short timescale but I haven't seen this for a while so could be something to consider.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?type=chart&display=chart&code=cotn%3AEMG.L&it=le&timeframe=6d15&index=li%3Acotn%3AASX.L&versus=&linetype=OHLC&Go=Plot+&overlay=EMA_20&overlay2=EMA_50&overlay3=EMA_200&overlay4=&indicator=slowstoch&indicator2=MACD&indicator3=MACDhist&indicator4=RSI_21&chartwidth=760&gridlines=on&triggers=on


Just don't like the position in the current channel. Knife edge.

F1 By FABIUS1 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673362&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 13:49:00 GMT FABIUS1 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673146 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673146&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 13:01:00 GMT Andy Reilly tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673135
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-crash-risk-remains-very-real-2012-05-23?dist=beforebell

It may not happen, but buying now just seems far too risky, especially as markets have turned down again today. Any sell off would easily see the SP hit the bottom of the trading channel, which would be painful. I wish you luck - AR By Andy Reilly ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673135&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 12:58:00 GMT Andy Reilly tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673115
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-crash-risk-remains-very-real-2012-05-23?dist=beforebell

It may not happen, but buying now just seems far too risky, especially as markets have turned down again today. Any sell off would easily see the SP hit the bottom of the trading channel, which would be painful. I wish you luck - AR By Andy Reilly ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673115&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 12:50:00 GMT Andy Reilly tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673105 This is indeed the way the market works. Sellers will be only satisfied when they feel they have dislodged all the weaker holders. Man's performance aside, I think this is clearly being used as a market whipping boy (geared proxy). Just hope they have used all those shares held in treasury to short themselves.

F1 By FABIUS1 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673105&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 12:49:00 GMT FABIUS1 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9673031
yes ahl isnt performing, but then again i doubt many other funds are either. most fund managers are using the line: 'its about wealth preservation as opposed to capital appreciation at the moment' - which basically means they're really happy with a break-even month.. says a lot.

anyway glg seemed to be doing quite well, the frm acquisition looks like a good bolt on, when man start performing a bit more consistently, this will shoot back up.

good luck all.

wsf. By Wall St Failure ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:EMG.L&display=discussion&id=9673031&action=detail Wed, 23 May 2012 12:34:00 GMT Wall St Failure