Northern Rock PLC Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167270 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167270&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:45:00 GMT Chis Lines tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167269
SO far the Uk has been fairly insulated from the credit crunch; polits have just been borrowing more money to keep the feel good factor in swing and hoping their luck will change. UK is probably lagging the US by at least a year in this cycle. If property prices really take the plunge and I mean by at least 20% from where they are now, and there is a recession with heavy job cuts, then the gov. may have to deicde it cant keep spending money it doesnt have like theres no tomorrow. At that point all bets are off. By Chis Lines ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167269&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:44:00 GMT Chis Lines tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167268 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167268&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:44:00 GMT Ace08 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167262 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167262&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:38:00 GMT Chis Lines tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167254 By Ace08 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167254&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:21:00 GMT Ace08 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167253
Why is this bb still running ? By Ace08 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167253&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:19:00 GMT Ace08 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167236
Rock.

By rock and a hard place ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167236&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:34:00 GMT rock and a hard place tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167151
This situation is not going to get any better an the longer it goes on the more likely that a bank is going to run out of money. By Jamtastic ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167151&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:12:00 GMT Jamtastic tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4167005
The whoppers are all global. I execpt many of them have heavy presence in the UK/london even if they dont have a large depositor base in the UK. Id guess think you will find it hard isolate the failure of a whopper based on geography...if thats your drift.

Id guess he isnt talking about fannie and freddie unless they are expected to fail even after a bail out- but honestly I dont know....although its hard to imagine he go on record with those sorts of comments without knowing something more than he reads in the newspapers. Maybe its just hot air. By Chis Lines ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4167005&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:44:00 GMT Chis Lines tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166852 I have recently re-read the Downwave by Robert Beckman.
In the book he accurately predicted the house price crash of the mid to late 80ies.
He lists factors to show that the market then was grossly inflated and about to fall.
However using the same figures, today's market is about normal.
He gives a figure of 25% of household income being spent on mortgages as being normal and sustainable.
With average household income of about £35000 and average mortgage of around £140000 and interest rates of around 6% you can work it out for yourself.
Further unemployment was much higher in the 80ies.
Interest rates were much higher then touching 15% at times.
Although unemployment may rise and interest rates move around a band of 5% to 7% the doom and gloom has been overdone.
Banks have been hit hard by sub prime USA investments CDUs and SIVs which have removed liquidity.
The removal of liquidity was not caused to any great extent by the UK housing market.
The BoE initial position of reluctance to help liquidity situation was a case of shooting ourselves in the foot.
This is why the shareholders of NRK have such a good case for compensation.
However the new (March 08) BoE policy was a big move in the right direction but it came too late to help NRK. By Occam ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4166852&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:57:00 GMT Occam tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166704
was the professor referring to the US rather than the UK?

In the UK, isnt HSBC bigger by market capitalisation than all the other major UK quoted banks, so it is our only whopper? By all accounts, it is one of the banks that isnt in any trouble.

I presume that the potential whoppers are,

Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Lehman, and possibly Citigroup and AIG?

I am not sure how you categorise Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They are pretty big, and destined for bailouts. But are they whoppers, and is a bailout a failure? By nettle124 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4166704&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 15:25:00 GMT nettle124 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166693
I dont see how the taxpayer having to put £3bn of new equity into NR to keep it going equates to the government stealing any money. They are putting it in, not taking it out. I am also at a loss to reconcile this £2bn that so say belongs to ex-shareholders.

The Virgin deal fell through because their deal was just not realistic, they couldnt get the funding in place to go for it. We all knew at the time that it was the Bearded Bandit trying to create a show to hide a government subsidy that would have breathed life back again into the dead parrott.

The NR Shareholders Action group is a good example of why the government should steer clear of intervening in markets. If it maintained such a policy, we wouldnt have litigation case after litigation case against the taxpayer. The Government should give no fuel to those that wish to blame the innnocent for their own incompetence.
By nettle124 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4166693&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 15:20:00 GMT nettle124 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166565 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4166565&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:15:00 GMT Chis Lines tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4166350
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/20/bcncml120.xml By Chis Lines ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4166350&action=detail Wed, 20 Aug 2008 12:43:00 GMT Chis Lines tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.4165547 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:NRK.L&display=discussion&id=4165547&action=detail Tue, 19 Aug 2008 23:09:00 GMT Chis Lines