Renewable Energy Discussion Board http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif http://www.iii.co.uk tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9633052
Farmerdave By farmerdave ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9633052&action=detail Fri, 11 May 2012 20:59:00 GMT farmerdave tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9611658
http://www.carnegiewave.com/files/brokerreports/2012/120503_Canaccord%20BGF%20research%20note.pdf

John By John of Groats ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9611658&action=detail Sat, 05 May 2012 12:11:00 GMT John of Groats tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9597051
The decision on where to locate the first commercial facility has been critically dependent on confirmation of government funding and has resulted in delays of about a year.

In the Annual Report issued on 30th September 2011, they were expecting to achieve construction, commissioning and operation of the first commercial facility and the first power production and sales by the end of 2012 (see CETO Development Pathway on page 19 of the Report). Today's announcement says, "Construction and commissioning of the Project will occur in 2013 with first power due for delivery into the grid at the end of 2013."

That delay had, I think, already been accounted for in the share price, as shown by the rise today from 4.3c to 5.0c. It also explains why REH have allowed themselves till 2013 to sell their shares. In fact, CWE had warned of a delay in the Report issued on 31st January 2012: "Carnegie continued to work on the final site selection process for the demonstration project through continued cost benefit analysis of sites at Garden Island (WA), Reunion Island (France), British Columbia, Ireland and an undisclosed remote island. The final announcement on the demonstration project location will be made Quarter 1, 2012. This is slightly later than initially anticipated but allows the decision to be informed by material developments anticipated to occur over the coming weeks particularly in relation to Government funding."

"Slightly later" is an unusual example of Australian understatement. Nevertheless, the new funding puts CWE on a firm footing for the next three years. The CWE share price needs to reach 6.63c to justify the value in REH's balance sheet and my estimate of 13p per share being returned to REH's shareholders.

John

By John of Groats ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9597051&action=detail Tue, 01 May 2012 16:32:00 GMT John of Groats tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9595611
One hopes anyway ! Would be happy with 15p - but still got a large loss, like many !!

R. By Rikman63 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9595611&action=detail Tue, 01 May 2012 11:40:00 GMT Rikman63 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9595256
I posted the follwoing back in November , so "last month" means October ....

**********

This came out last month and is an interesting read. I don't think it's been mentioned here before, but apologies if it's old news.

http://www.gdpcapital.co.uk/docs/investor_update_12_10_11.pdf

There's some interesting stuff in it. REH plainly aren't in GDP's good books because they have this to say

"A long running cloud over CWE’s share price has been one of its largest shareholders, REH, and so we offer a brief update on this situation. The 25% shareholder has had very few positive recent developments excluding their
reporting of developments at Carnegie. Today they announced an extension of a
disastrous and very costly loan agreement struck with their major shareholder
Utilico, who gracefully have extended the lifeline of REH. The company (REH)
remains in our view keen to offload its CWE stake in order to finance the
development of its much delayed windUfarm portfolio. GDPC exited REH earlier
this year as their Board failed to implement changes to deliver, but rather erode,
shareholder value. The possibility of REH becoming a distressed seller of a large
chunk of CWE’s issued share capital remains possible within the next 18 months
and the situation should be monitored by shareholders of CWE. However, we feel
this risk is offset somewhat by developments expected at CWE in the same time
period. In effect, if CWE achieve what GDPC expect, a forced REH sale would not
be an issue – but an opportunity – and its detrimental effects to CWE shareholder
value limited. "

**************

*disclaimer : Although I've sold up here, I hold shares in Carnegie - I originally invested in REH because of CETO, so, for me, it was a natural move

BB - that's me done on this board, GLA. By Boring Bernie ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9595256&action=detail Tue, 01 May 2012 10:27:00 GMT Boring Bernie tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9595000
Farmerdave By farmerdave ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9595000&action=detail Tue, 01 May 2012 09:42:00 GMT farmerdave tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9594968 http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=CWE

They have funded Garden Island to 2mw commercial development 31m (half govt grant and half equity from a US fund - although they do not have to take all equity). Very good news for CWE shares up 16%

Farmerdave By farmerdave ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9594968&action=detail Tue, 01 May 2012 09:36:00 GMT farmerdave tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9592990
At $AU 1.5562 to the Pound, that puts a value on the 201,359,387 shares held by REH of between £ 5,563,844 (mid price) and £ 4,528,710 (offer price). That compares with the current book value of £ 8,578,000. That could mean a further write-down of £3m to £4m if they sold now, knocking between 4p and 6p off my projected payback of 13p.

However, CWE may have the first phase of Garden Island connected to the grid by the end of this year and EDF may be working to a similar timetable for the first phase of the Reunion project. achieving those two milestones would give the CWE share price a boost. Also, EDF could be interested in acquiring the REH holding, so selling the shares for a reasonable price in a year's time looks promising.

In the meantime, according to a poster on ADVFN, trading in CWE shares has been suspended till Wednesday. I will report anything I find out after reading the Hot Copper BB.

John By John of Groats ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9592990&action=detail Mon, 30 Apr 2012 16:24:00 GMT John of Groats tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9591641
I sold out here a few weeks ago ( great timing ... not ) but it seems to me this set of asset sales and return of cash to shareholders is the best you can hope for.

John'O'Groats has come up with a decent estimate of what the holding in Carnegie is likely to bring in. I'd guess that selling 25% of the company is likely to realise less then the market value of the Carnegie shares at the time of the sale, but that will very much depend on how the CETO projects are progressing.

Basically you can either hang in until you get the cash back ( having estimated how much that's likely to be ) or sell up on the open market and see if you can do better elsewhere.

That's kind of stating the obvious really I know.
Good luck with whatever you decide.

BB By Boring Bernie ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9591641&action=detail Mon, 30 Apr 2012 11:17:00 GMT Boring Bernie tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9591491
That's obviously the " realisable value of the Company's assets significantly exceeds its current market capitalisation" Mike Proffitt - Chief Exec - yea right. Cheers Mike for all your hard work !!

R.
By Rikman63 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9591491&action=detail Mon, 30 Apr 2012 10:44:00 GMT Rikman63 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9591266
Farmerdave By farmerdave ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9591266&action=detail Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:51:00 GMT farmerdave tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9591156
For simplicity, take the current asset value as £11m and deduct another year-or-so's expenses (say £2m). With 70m shares, that would give a payout of about 13p per share.

John By John of Groats ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9591156&action=detail Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:28:00 GMT John of Groats tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9591036
"Review of assets - 2 empty fields, no planning, no physical assets, value zero. Current value of Carnegie x interest."

Total time 1 minute.

At least there is no agonising over whether to sell off and take a loss - now that is the only option. 'Just sitting it out' would mean going bust.

T By tea_club_7 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9591036&action=detail Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:08:00 GMT tea_club_7 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9590991
Any projections or guesses where this may go ?


R.
By Rikman63 ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9590991&action=detail Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:01:00 GMT Rikman63 tag:iii.co.uk,2003:tst.9590906 GLA By theprior ]]> http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:REH.L&display=discussion&id=9590906&action=detail Mon, 30 Apr 2012 08:43:00 GMT theprior